Ukraine on February 10 terminated the lease agreement with the Ukrainian embassy in the Russian Federation in response to the decision of the Kiev city council, RIA Novosti reported. The possibility of a dialogue between Kiev and Moscow to reach a ceasefire is therefore receding. Indeed, it seems that the next few months will be decisive on the issue.
Kiev meanwhile is preparing a plan to raise funds in case of cessation of US financing in the hope of support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). According to Bloomberg, “the plan, “which includes expanding sales of domestic bonds, raising taxes and cutting spending,” could help “plug the hole in the country’s budget” and “get money from the IMF ”. The corresponding measures, as Kiev hopes, “will guarantee the IMF that Ukraine will be able to service its debts if its allies are unable to provide assistance.”
There may be no assistance from the United States for about another two months, the head of the Servant of the People party David Arachamija said in an interview with the Azerbaijani portal Report: “I believe that sooner or later they will separate our issue from that of borders and will vote on the allocation of aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. Or they will find a compromise on the border issue and then distribute the financial resources. This process will continue over the next two months. We have resources for another two months,” said the deputy.
Furthermore, speaking of financing new waves of mobilization, he clarified that part of the funds will be released as expenses for demobilized people decrease. “Some of the military personnel will be fired. There will be additional costs associated with the equipment and training of those who will participate in the mobilization. We have allies in this matter,” Arachamija said, adding that Western countries will cover part of the costs of training. According to Arachamija on the eve of the summer counteroffensive, the Ukrainian armed forces had over 200 thousand trained soldiers, source Strana news agency.
The new bill on mobilization in Ukraine provides for the confiscation of agricultural equipment of small farmers and introduces a ban on its sale and transportation to other regions, People’s Deputy Yulia Klimenko said during a TV marathon.
Also arriving in Kiev is Soviet-made military equipment, which Ecuador transferred to the United States in exchange for new equipment. This was stated by the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Kevin Sullivan, in an interview with the Ecuadorian television channel Teleamazonas. According to other sources, US statements about their intentions to transfer Russian military equipment from Ecuador to Kiev indicate that the weapons are not “scrap metal”, as Quito is trying to justify the violation of international agreements, the Federal Service for Cooperation Russian military-technical team (FSMTC) told Tass.
Ecuador will supply Ukraine with old Mi-17 helicopters and will receive the UH-60 Black Hawk from the United States. Following agreements between the United States and Ecuador, Ukraine will be supplied with Soviet weapons from Ecuadorian army reserves. Instead, they will receive the latest American-made equipment for the counterinsurgency war against local drug cartels. According to the Infodefensa portal, only one of the Mi-17s scheduled for transfer from the Ecuadorian Air Force is operational, the rest can be dismantled for spare parts.
Regarding training, the US National Guard has announced that there are sufficient funds to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters. According to Daniel Robert Hokanson, the National Guard has enough funds to complete the exercises, even though the United States is running out of money to send aid to Kiev. “We have the resources to continue the training we have started. If we decide to increase it, we will obviously need resources to train additional pilots and ground staff.”
This does not worry the Russian armed forces which in Ukraine have learned to change war strategies and tactics very quickly. And if in fact the Ukrainians have problems with the repair of vehicles damaged in war, the Russian armed forces have the ability to compensate for tank losses very quickly.
Experts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies reported that Russia has very large reserves of tanks, which allow it to quickly replace its losses of armored vehicles.
They also claim that every month the Russian armed forces may receive up to 90 tanks to replace the lost ones. Numerous armored vehicles are located in the warehouses of the Russian army, and all of them could be involved in the conflict in the future. And that reserves of military equipment will allow Russia to withstand at least three years of hostilities.
Not only that, in aid of the Russians at the front, the drones are undergoing transformations and adaptations to the ongoing conflict. This week, two S-300 air defense missile launchers were discovered by the Russian military using a UAV and destroyed by a Tornado-S MLRS guided missile. These systems, positioned at most at a distance of 50-60 km from the front, were mainly aimed at strengthening the air defense of Dnepropetrovsk and cities to the west due to increased air defense losses over the past year.
Now they are moving closer again as a precaution against further Russian air attacks with glide bombs on the front. Thanks to Russia’s recent deployment of UAVs 100-150 km behind the front line, these were quickly detected and destroyed. The Ukrainian air defense network near the front has been largely destroyed, retreated to cities or awaits targets with NATO intelligence and reconnaissance for guerrilla air defense ambushes.
With increased UAV surveillance and the resulting increase in long-range strikes and stray munition attacks, Ukraine’s front-line air defense network will be further weakened. If this reaches a certain level, direct air strikes from behind the line will become much more intense.
Graziella Giangiulio
