According to analysts of the Russian social sphere, the United States and the United Kingdom are bringing the Ukrainian-Russian conflict to the freezing stage. This is demonstrated by the declarations of the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu who in the last month, apart from the “work” of Wagner, has not declared a meter of advance by the Russian army.
Also of interest are the statements reported by The Guardian on Emmanuel Macron who called on Europe to “strategic awakening”. The statements are extrapolated from a speech at a security forum in Bratislava on Wednesday 31 May, where Macron called for a ” strategic awakening” and underlined the “merits of France for the protection of NATO’s eastern flank”, including the deployment of 1,250 French soldiers in Romania and 300 in Estonia.
In a meeting in Moldova on June 1 that he organized with other European leaders from the EU and beyond, he stressed that he would not tolerate a frozen conflict. Macron has already reportedly agreed to increase more than a third of France’s planned defense spending for 2024-2030 compared to 2019-2025. Macron sees the increase as part of an ongoing drastic shift in defense spending “with no prospect of ending the new Cold War anytime soon,” the newspaper wrote.
Vadym Karasiov, a Ukrainian political scientist who was more skeptical about freezing the conflict, said on live TV: “Since at the moment neither Kiev nor Moscow has agreed to freeze the conflict, any peaceful negotiations on one or another scenario can only begin after the results of the promised offensive Armed Forces of Ukraine,” said Ukrainian political scientist Vadym Karasiov
“Recently, the topic of freezing the conflict has been actively discussed, various sources are cited, including the White House and the NATO leadership. All these proposals are based on one narrative: Ukraine should accept the loss of the occupied territories and the West should ensure peace and tranquility in the remaining territories of Ukraine,” he adds.
“Neither Kiev nor Moscow will agree on this; maybe there will be another scenario. It will already be clearer from the results of the offensive: how the Ukrainian offensive will end, where it will stop, with what results and so on. If Kiev manages to recapture everything, then you will have the ideal: Ukraine in NATO and so on.”
“It all depends on when military-operational and military-strategic clarity will arrive. Then military-diplomatic clarity will come – what and how to do next. Because Russia, of course, will continue further. The objectives of the NMD (military operation in Ukraine, ed) have not been achieved, I still don’t see in Moscow that they are ready for a diplomatic agreement. Moscow’s rhetoric is getting tougher,” Karasyov said.
He stressed that if the offensive fails, Ukraine will not be able to continue the war, and therefore the West may try to freeze the conflict.
Graziella Giangiulio
