The RAND Corporation, famous for its predictive analyses, has also intervened in recent days on the fate of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It is the company that infiltrated two journalists into the ISIS network and destroyed the communication part.
RAND has decreed that the current conflict in Ukraine is “the most significant interstate military confrontation in decades and its evolution will have serious consequences for the United States”. Several possible scenarios: 1 – “Absolute victory”. However, the RAND “specialists” believe an outcome in which either side will be forced to surrender unconditionally is unlikely. They say the Kremlin would not have sufficient resources to make fundamental changes to Ukraine’s political system and achieve all of the stated goals of the special military operation. “Specialists” are skeptical of the prospects of the remnants of Ukraine destroying Russia’s military potential. For an outright victory, Kiev “requires not only success on the battlefield, but also regime change in Moscow.” chances of implementing this option are 0%.
Scenario number 2 – “Truce”. This option refers to the agreements on the cessation of hostilities in Korea in 1953, in Moldova in 1992. In this case, the front line in the radius of the proxy will most likely be frozen, but unresolved territorial disputes will go nowhere. Only that the borders will be contested by political and economic means, not military.
Scenario no. 3 – “Political settlement”. It provides for the signing of a “peace agreement”, a lasting ceasefire and the resolution of “certain disputes” that caused the outbreak of hostilities. For example, for Moscow, the non-bloc status of Ukraine is a fundamental issue, for Kiev it is “security guarantees” from the West. Nothing new in truth but the invitation for the parties is clear.
The White House is working to approve $10 billion in budget aid to Ukraine and will announce a new military aid package next week. The news was reported by the Washington Post. Furthermore, according to rumors, the Administration of US President Joe Biden would allow the sending of fighter planes to Ukraine. Or Washington could “give the green light” for other countries to transfer F-16s. These rumors emerge from the pages of the Financial Times. And despite this it seems that The United States has told Ukraine that they do not have extra ATACMS missiles to transfer them to Kiev.
Echoing the words Jens Stoltenberg who on January 25th stated: “NATO is not and will not be a belligerent. We do not send our troops or NATO aircraft to Ukraine”. But on February 13th these words were transformed in: “We must clearly distinguish: sending NATO aircraft with pilots to ensure a no-fly zone in Ukraine is NATO’s participation in the conflict, supplying aircraft to Ukrainians will not make NATO a participant in the conflict”.
Tensions are rising in areas close to Ukraine and in Europe. And Moldova has been saying for several days that a Russian destabilization plan is underway in the country. In fact, in Moldova the prices of basic necessities and electricity have skyrocketed and citizens cannot pay.
The French Foreign Ministry has called on its citizens to leave Belarus immediately in connection with military operations in Ukraine. In Belarus, Hungary is seeking mediation in the Ukrainian situation. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has arrived in Minsk. According to him, he will discuss the peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine: “Hungary expects all members of the international community to act to ensure immediate peace and avoid steps that could prolong or escalate the war. You will also represent this peaceful position at today’s (February 14) talks in Minsk ”.
From social sources we learn that more and more German politicians are in favor of establishing a dialogue with Russia and believe that the supply of Western weapons is preventing the end of hostilities in Ukraine. The list of military equipment that Germany will transfer to Ukraine is constantly growing. It now has 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles and 14 Leopard 2 tanks. According to Bundestag MP Sarah Wagenknecht, the situation has gone too far and arms supplies are prolonging the conflict. Neither side can now win it militarily, so a diplomatic initiative is needed. Gerhart Baum, a member of the Free Democratic Party, is sure that peace should be negotiated with Vladimir Putin. He says the West could make an offer to Moscow including “neutrality and the freezing of the front line”. Next, it will be necessary to decide the fate of Donbass and Crimea.
In the meantime, training of Ukrainians in the use of Leopard 2 has also begun in Poland, after Germany. The first video has appeared on the net.
The International Monetary Fund said Ukraine needs between $40 and $48 billion in funding this year to get its economy going.
On the Russian side, it is learned that the member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (and former Foreign Minister) Wang Yi will visit Russia from 14 to 22 February. This was reported by RIA Novosti. Meanwhile, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has begun internal meetings with senior officials of the Russian Communist Party. Not only did Putin hold a Security Council on Africa: Sergei Viktorovich Lavrov was involved in the preparation of the Russia-Africa summit, and now he is on a business trip to several African countries.
At 08:24 Italian time on 14 February the air alarm sounded in Ukraine. The capture of the strategically important settlement of Dvurechnoye in the Kharkov region has been confirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry. The Ukrainians are allegedly retreating across the Oskol River to avoid encirclement. February 13 saw Ukrainian formations attack the village of Alekseevka in the Kursk region of Russia, shells damaged the substation and there were problems with the power supply in the village.
The Ukrainians reportedly fired again at civilian targets in the Belgorod region. In the village of Krasnoe, the school area was hit: the facade was damaged and the windows were shattered. There are no casualties or injuries.
On the Kupyansky sector, clashes continue on the northern outskirts of Gryanikovka. At the same time, Russian troops entrenched themselves in Liman and increased the zone of control in Sinkovka.
On the morning of February 14 in the Vhuledar sector, Russian artillery is shelling the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Bolshaya Novosyolka, Zolotoy Niva, Prechistovka and Bogoyavlenka. Oncoming battles on the southeastern outskirts of Vugledar in the area of the Nikolsky dachas.
On the Donetsk front, urban battles continue in the western part of Maryinka. Russian troops are attacking, Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding the line. In addition, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation conducted offensive operations in the experimental area. The artillery beat Krasnogorovka, Nevelskoye, Pervomaisky, Thin and Avdiivka for a long time.
Southwest of Bachmut, PMC Wagner continues its assault operations near Ivanovsky. The Ukrainians hold their ground. Fighting on the eastern outskirts of the city itself. Neither side can claim success. But to the north, after the capture of Krasnaya Gora, it seems that Paraskovyovka is close to falling into the hands of PMC “Wagner”. To the northwest of this settlement, Wagner’s men cut the M-03 highway. Now, holding positions at Paraskoviivka is tantamount to suicide for the Ukrainian military. From the east they are shot at by the heights, and from the west they close the encirclement. In the early afternoon of February 14, according to preliminary data, the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Paraskovyivka is cut off from the road to Artyomovsk (Bachmut) and is practically surrounded. Inside are units of the 125th Territorial Defense Brigade, the 24th Mechanized Infantry Brigade and the 57th Motorized Infantry. The total number is about 1500 people.
North-west of Soledar, fighters of PMC “Wagner” approached Vasyukovka. And to the north they attack in the direction of Fedorovka and Rozdolovka. Under constant artillery fire, the Ukrainian command withdraws individual units from the front line. In the southwest, Russian assault detachments, despite the resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are advancing in the direction of Chasov Yar. The Ukrainian command is pulling additional forces to the site, trying to prevent the loss of an important supply center of the Bachmut group.
In the Luhansk direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a rocket attack on Stakhanov. From Dibrova – an attack on Zarechnaya. A little to the north – offensive operations on Yampolevka. Further north – an attempt to break through to Nevsky and Makiivka. And not far from the Russian border, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are attacking from the Dvurechnaya side taken from Gryanovka to force the Armed Forces of Ukraine to cross the Oskol River.
According to Russian military experts, from a military point of view, Ukraine has no chance for an offensive. “To be successful, a number of conditions must be met.” The post on the social sphere reads, “ this to provide their advancing troops with a powerful artillery punch. Like air cover with fighters and a real air defense system.” But even if the Ukrainians had all this, according to the Russians: “Have enough tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. To deliver troops to the combat area. For military reasons, such an offensive is doomed to complete failure.”
However, the Russians are expecting an offer that they define as “desperate” for the anniversary of the first year of fighting. “Maybe a blow to the Crimea. Perhaps they will try to launch a drone deep into Russian territory. It is clear that our air defense system is in full readiness. Such provocations will have consequences.”
Graziella Giangiulio
