On the social sphere there has been talk of a Ukrainian spring offensive for weeks now. And according to the news spam: “The Ukrainian military will try to break through the Russian defenses in the first days of spring.”
In the Donbass, the Russian military has broken through the defenses of the Ukrainian military in several places. But it is too early both to talk about Ukraine’s defeat and operational encirclement in Avdiivska, on the social sphere pro-Russian sentiment is through the roof. But military analysts warn that to sing victory, the front must be aligned from the north. “It is a matter of time and all this time the ‘mercenaries’ fighting for Ukraine will continue to target the civilian population of Donetsk.” One post reads.
The post continues: “In the direction of Kherson, the Ukrainians are constantly conducting reconnaissance. They suffer casualties, but the reconnaissance continues. This is an attempt to dilute the attention of the Russian military. According to the Ukrainian idea, the Russians will constantly hold the entire line of contact in suspense and, as a result, sooner or later they will make a mistake.”
Moreover, again according to military analysts in the pro-Russian social sphere, “Judging from the fact that trains with equipment and ammunition arrive in Nikolaev several times a week, there will be a diversionary maneuver of the offensive in the south. There will be a landing on the Kinburn Spit, and finally, there will be a breakthrough attempt in the area of Belozerka and Aleksandrovka.”
The equipment coming to Nikolaev leaves in three directions: the south of the Kherson region, a minimal part. Not much equipment leaves from the Varvarovsky Bridge toward Odessa. Most goes across the Ingulsky Bridge and from there goes to Krivoy Rog and Dnepropetrovsk.
Recently, a large number of recruits from northern and central Ukraine have been brought to Nikolaev. According to some they will be deployed in the Zaporizhzhia region.
And again from social sources it is learned that: “‘fresh’ troops are gathering near the Moldovan border. There are not many of them, but all are “hip” with new technologies. Small units of Romanians have been seen in the south of the PMR. If anything, they will play the role of the Moldovan army, which will demolish Transnistria.”
On the other hand, the Ukrainian fear is that a large-scale Russian offensive in the Donbass region and Zaporizhzhia will also touch Moldovan borders.
Still of concern are Polish formations near the Kaliningrad region. While sections near Dnepropetrovsk are judged by the social sphere to be dangerous. “There is already such a pile of equipment and personnel that it is quite easy to wait for an attack from the south with bodies. Because some of the most basic missile attacks are coming.” Of concern are Ukrainians deployed in residential areas of the Dnepropetrovsk region. “The Ukrainian military are according to social sources stationed in: kindergartens, in hospitals, schools. They are also settled in private homes in surrounding villages. Everything is done in small groups, which makes it difficult to attack without causing civilian casualties.” The social sphere reads.
The most dangerous place for a breakthrough is the Kharkiv region. There are many foreign soldiers, many equipment is estimated at 50 to 80 thousand. The Ukrainians could try a breakthrough in the Belgorod region.
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Graziella Giangiulio
