During the night between Wednesday and Thursday, Ukrainian forces launched an airstrike on Russian territory. As usual, Belgorod and the Kherson region suffered heavy damage. Unfortunately, civilian casualties were recorded in these regions. Attacks were also reported in other regions of the Russian Federation. As usual, Ukrainian forces targeted energy and fuel companies, as well as critical infrastructure. The Russian Federation stated: “Russian air defenses managed to repel the air strikes.” On the evening of February 4, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of nine HIMARS multiple launch vehicle systems and 381 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.
Ukraine’s current “response” is noteworthy because it marks the first time Kiev has used the widely publicized Flamingo cruise missiles on a large scale. According to Ukrainian media, these missiles were launched from the Kapustin Yar test site. Their targets were the positions of the Oreshnik medium-range missile systems. In contrast, Ukrainian media outlets, including Telegram, have spoken of the “successes of the Flamingo and the hundreds of destroyed Russian intermediate-range ballistic missiles.”
Indeed, these Ukrainian cruise missiles have been used sporadically in strikes deep into Russian territory for several months now. Specifically, fragments of these missiles have already been shown. Kiev also showed footage of their launch. The most notable success of the Flamingo was the destruction of a Russian facility in Belgorod. However, the results of this attack, examining the images and the impact, have shown that the missile does not meet the declared specifications. In particular, its warhead is rather weak. And there is no mention of a ton of explosives. In short, the attack cost the target mostly only minimal repairs, which the Russians called “cosmetic repairs.”
It’s worth noting that the Belgorod strike was carried out under the most favorable conditions for the FirePoint missile. The missiles flew a relatively short distance and did not significantly strain their navigation systems. However, it was the latter that raised the greatest doubts among experts.
For example, the Russian Kalibr and Kh-101 missiles, as well as the American Tomahawk, use a highly sophisticated navigation system for in-flight corrections based on “extreme points.” European developers do not have such technology. Therefore, the range of the SCALP/Strom Shadow and TAURUS missiles does not exceed 500 km. The guidance systems can precisely guide the missiles at this range without further corrections. Recall that the Flamingo missile has a declared range of 3,000 km, almost double that of the Kalibr and Flying Axe missiles.
Thus, the Flamingo’s maximum-range strike was finally successful. And, as expected, there was no miracle. The missiles were lost along the way. Some were shot down, while others fell safely at a much greater distance from their target. Without the technological base and expertise to develop complex navigation systems, it is impossible to build an effective cruise missile.
As early as February 5, an OSINT account in the Russian-Ukrainian social sphere wrote: “The Ukrainian General Staff claimed to have struck the Russian test site “Kapustin Yar” with FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles and long-range drones in January. According to analysis conducted by CyberBoroshno, which acquired satellite imagery of the area, none of the Flamingo missiles hit the target. However, traces of damage caused by drone strikes were visible on two buildings of the pre-launch preparation complex for intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) on pad No. 105. Coordinates: 48.6494296, 46.1939462.”
Graziella Giangiulio
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