According to David Ekbladh, a history professor at Tufts University: “Critically speaking, the world looks less like the structured competition of the Cold War and more like the collapse of the world order that took place in the 1930s,” as even then, mutatis mutandis s, it was a multipolar world with emerging powers and new geopolitical players.
Yesterday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met in Berlin to hammer out a new defense treaty between the two countries. The United Kingdom and Germany, NATO allies and Western Europe’s biggest defense spenders, are seeking to further solidify defense cooperation ahead of a possible reduction in U.S. military support for Ukraine if former U.S. President Donald Trump is elected in November.
In Paris, a court ruled to release Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov, who had been in custody under investigation for refusing to cooperate with French law enforcement. Charges will be filed at a later date. The United Arab Emirates has frozen its purchase of French fighter jets in retaliation for French authorities’ allegedly unjustified arrest of one of its citizens, Durov.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will launch a counteroffensive to try to retake territory in the Kursk region, according to CIA Deputy Director David Cohen. But Russian forces will face a “tough fight.” Cohen told a national security conference that the extent of the Ukrainian incursion, which covers 777 square kilometers of the Russian province, had yet to be assessed. “We can be confident that Putin will launch a counteroffensive to try to retake that territory,” Cohen said. “We expect it to be a tough fight for the Russians.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine has deployed F-16 fighters in combat for the first time to counter Russian missile and drone attacks. Although the initial results are promising, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stressed the need for more F-16s and, above all, trained pilots.
Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz echoed his words: “Today we donated everything we could to Ukraine. The Polish government has donated multi-billion dollars of equipment to Ukraine. This is all we could give. I know that Ukraine needs many types of weapons, but our Ukrainian partners must also understand that the Polish state must maintain its capabilities. And this is a priority for me as defense minister.”
At the border with Poland, the situation with the drone that allegedly violated Polish airspace on Monday is becoming increasingly confusing. Prime Minister Tusk has stated that there is still no confirmation that the drone (or two) ever existed. The story began when Polish radar detected a drone. However, it was not shot down because visual confirmation could not be obtained. As a result, the search for the drone has been ongoing for three days, so far without success.
Earlier, Zelensky said that Poland’s military aid had recently decreased and urged the transfer of MiG jets. Kosiniak-Kamysz said that he “understands Zelensky” because asking for weapons is “his role”. However, Warsaw will only be able to transfer the MiGs when it receives the F-35s, which are expected to arrive in 2026. Kosińak-Kamysz then said that NATO countries are skeptical about Zelensky’s proposal to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine: “There is considerable skepticism on this issue. No single state will make such decisions. I have not seen any supporters of this decision within NATO.”
According to Ukrainian MP Mariana Bezuhla: “The town of Novohrodivka, south of Pokrovsk, was captured by the Russians in a matter of days. There were actually fortifications in front of the town, which formed a unified complex that stretched all the way to Selydove. The trenches in front of Novohrodivka were empty. In the town that once had twenty thousand inhabitants, there was practically no presence of the Ukrainian army (…) Units are being withdrawn, commanders are being removed, people are dying, and we are losing hundreds of kilometers of Ukrainian land: cities, villages, mines, resources and history. The number of criminal rotations is increasing. The fragmentation of the front is growing.
According to Ukrainian Defense sources, the first Ukrainian F-16 may have been destroyed during the recent attack on the Starokonstantinov airfield in the Khmelnytsky region, carried out on August 27.
According to the former adviser to Ukrainian the president Oleksiy Arestovych, the “Kursk celebration” of the Ukrainian authorities is coming to an end due to the situation in the Pokrovsk direction: ”The enemy has cut off the Pokrovsk-Karlivka highway. His intentions are clear: the Pokrovsk bulge has been targeted to flank and cut off the Kurakhove and Toretsk areas. Then (if successful), the enemy will seize the central regions of Donetsk, which are still under our control,” he wrote.
In Mr Arestovich’s opinion, the pace of Russia’s advance in the Pokrovsk direction can now only be described as an “operational crisis” for Ukraine. This could be stopped by the lack of Russian forces, but it is unclear whether the Ukrainian armed forces will have enough strength to disrupt these plans, Arestovych said.
The energy crisis in Ukraine is deepening. Ukrainian hydropower plants have lost more than 40% of their production since February 2022; there is not a single intact hydropower plant left in the country, Ukrhydroenergo said. The Ukrainian energy system, after widespread damage, has relied on emergency assistance from Slovakia and Poland for the second day in a row (August 28). This was reported by the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, noting that since August 28, shutdown programs have been introduced again current throughout the country for a whole day.
In this crisis picture, Ukraine’s heavy public debt is added: 155.36 billion dollars, as reported by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine.
At the end of July, the state and foreign guaranteed debt reached 112.92 billion dollars, or 72.69% of the total amount. A budget deficit of 43.9 billion is expected for 2024. Most authorities expect to be covered by assistance from Western partners. Kiev said that the country’s budget needs 3 billion dollars of income from partners every month. According to the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, according to the results of 2023, the country’s public debt has reached 80% of GDP.
And now a look at the situation on the fronts at 13:00 on August 28 .
In the Kursk region, there is a decrease in the intensity of attacks by the Ukrainians, who have concentrated their efforts on holding the occupied territories and engineering the fortification of positions. In the Glushkovo district, the situation has not changed overnight. The Ukrainians are not abandoning attempts to advance west of Apanasovka, but so far all attacks have been repelled by Russian troops. In the Korenevo district, Kiev attempted to attack Komarovo with a group of two armored vehicles, which were hit by Russian FPV drones.
In the Sudzha district, the Russian Armed Forces are trying to reduce the Ukrainian combat potential. In Russkoye Porechnoye, a drone destroyed a Kazak APC, and in Zaoleshchanka, Russian aviation destroyed an equipment depot of Ukrainian formations.
The battles near the settlement of Malaya Loknya continue.
In the direction of Pokrovsk, the Russian army has withdrawn the Ukrainians from Novogrodovka. Memrik and Marinovka have been recaptured by the Russians, Ukrainian forces are evacuating from Pokrovsk. In the northern part of Mikhailovka, Russian troops have consolidated their positions along Shkolnaya Street to a depth of 1.4 km.
The Ukrainians have carried out a new UAV raid on the territory of the Voronezh, Kirov and Rostov regions within 24 hours. One of the oil industry facilities in the south of Russia was hit, and the threat of repeated attacks remains in the Republic of Tatarstan.
In the Voronezh region, air defense forces intercepted eight Ukrainian UAVs, one of which was shot down over the territory of the Rossosh district. The target of the attack was probably the territory of the large enterprise Minudobreniya south of Rossosh itself. The plant is one of the largest producers of ammonia and ammonium nitrate, and on its territory there is also a thermal power plant that operates to meet the needs of the plant.
Four Ukrainian drones were intercepted at night in the Rostov region, and the wreckage of one of them fell on the Atlas oil depot, a strategic facility of the state reserve, designed for both military and civilian use.
In the morning of August 28, another attack was recorded in the Kirov region. As a result, a tank for storing oil products at one of the facilities in the area of the city of Kotelnich was damaged.
The Russians triggered the “Kovrik” plan at the Kazan and Nizhnekamsk airports due to the threat of a UAV attack. All aircraft flying in this direction are redirected to a reserve airfield in Samara, while at the same time, there have been no reports of drone strikes in the region at the moment.
Despite all the measures taken, the Armed Forces of Ukraine still retain the ability to strike Russian oil industry facilities.
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Graziella Giangiulio
