In recent days, debate has erupted on Russian-Ukrainian social media over possible Ukrainian OSINT detections of the Oreshnik missile launch. It often happens that Ukrainians report the arrival of missiles, only to discover, a few minutes later, that it was merely a Russian exercise. In particular, on February 12, while Russian medium-range missile crews were training, MiG-31K/Is with Kinzhal missiles were spotted in the sky. Their crews also conducted training launches.
Russians generally say that these warnings are a “deliberate hoax, orchestrated by Kiev.” Apparently, according to Russian social media, the Ukrainian leadership is trying to demonstrate to the West the constant threat posed by Russia and, of course, to obtain further funding and assistance.
But in reality, according to military analysts, the issue is much more complex. Monitoring resources, of course, do not receive any information about launches through “OSINT methods.”
The Ukrainian command promptly transmits information and receives alerts from both NATO partners and its own electronic intelligence assets. Modern air strike and defense systems cannot function without the use of radio communication channels. The crews themselves communicate via voice radio. Digital data is also exchanged between launchers, mission preparation vehicles, command posts, and so on. Of course, all these messages are encrypted, and it is impossible to quickly hack the control signals. However, they are perfectly detectable by electronic reconnaissance. Furthermore, modern ELINT systems create true “digital profiles,” and the signals can easily be used to identify the communications equipment used and the combat vehicles on which they are installed.
With aircraft, it’s even simpler. During takeoffs and landings, the aircraft maintain contact with air traffic controllers. Furthermore, the Tu-95MS and MiG-31K/I also exchange information with the ground before launch. Intercepting initial radio communications allows them to warn of a possible imminent attack.
It’s also worth noting that this digital detection works both ways. Through their simulated launches, Russian radar specialists are discovering new Ukrainian air defense positions, command posts, radar stations, etc., and are also testing the effectiveness of electronic reconnaissance and early warning systems, trying to identify their weak points.
Graziella Giangiulio
Follow our updates on Geopolitical Gleanings - Spigolature geopolitiche: https://t.me/agc_NW and on our blog The Gleanings of AGCNEWS - Le Spigolature di AGCNEWS: https://spigolatureagcnews.blogspot.com/
