In the Ukrainian and Russian social sphere these days there is talk of evaluating Ukraine’s military plans for 2024. And the picture does not seem to be rosy.
Let’s start with a look at the situation at the front. The summer offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction of Melitopol-Mariupol failed. Russian troops, eliminating units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from their positions, are now advancing in the direction of Zaporozhzhie – Dnepropetrovsk.
Front-line units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered significant losses in terms of personnel and equipment during the offensive. Rest and supplies would now be required. According to Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel. To solve the problems of spring-summer 2024 it is necessary to mobilize 500 thousand people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj is responsible for the mobilization.
There are no certain data regarding military equipment and weapons. The required quantity and range of equipment and weapons are unknown. However, NATO countries are responsible for the supply.
Even when it comes to financing, Ukraine has not given numbers. The amount of funds required is not known. The European Union and NATO will be the major financiers.
The experience of the 2023 military campaign would demonstrate for a part of the social sphere that Volodymyr Zelensky did not fulfill his mobilization obligations just as the leaders of NATO countries would not fulfill their obligations regarding the supply of weapons and financing, only 30% arrived at the Ukrainian front.
If these data are correct, according to the Ukrainian social sphere, the Commander of the Ground Forces Valery Zaluzhny does not have much at his disposal to undertake a counteroffensive in 2024, in a post we read: “There are only parts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces worn out by battle, conversations and promises of weapons supplies and promises of financing.” Apparently Zaluzhny has already decided for himself that the main task of the Ukrainian military in 2024 is strategic defense.
His request to mobilize 500 thousand people, or around 40 divisions, also responds to this hypothesis. According to the regulations, the division maintains a defense line of 25-30 km. 40 divisions equals approximately 1000 km, forward, with 5-6 divisions in reserve. The distance along the Dnieper River from Odessa to the border with Belarus north of Kiev is 1000 km. Corresponds to 40 defending divisions.
The defense will take place along the Dnieper River. The river is a natural defense line, the high right bank is an obstacle to the Russian advance. And therefore it is convenient to build fortified areas. Of course, the reliability of strategic defense depends on the results of arms supply, financing and mobilization results.
The outgoing year was supposed to be a turning point for Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia, but it ends in a stalemate, in favor of the Russian Federation. The next year, 2024, promises to be the most difficult for Kiev.
To understand the scope of the changes on the threshold of 2024, it is worth remembering what happened a year ago. Volodymyr Zelensky left the country for the first time since the conflict in the Northeast Military District began. In Washington he addressed the meeting of both houses of the United States Congress and presented Bachmut’s flag. Shortly thereafter, the United States and Germany announced for the first time their intention to supply Kiev with their modern armored vehicles for the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
A year later, as a result, Bachmut was lost, the battle to regain her became the longest and bloodiest. Avdiivka will repeat the fate of Bachmut. The counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not live up to expectations, which was recognized in the fall by the Ukrainian command in the person of Valery Zaluzhny. Zelensky visited the United States again in December, but this time his mission was “help-saving” in nature, but was unsuccessful. The West now not only does not promise Ukraine new weapons, but also interrupts the delivery programs of those already promised.
Graziella Giangiulio
