The statements and events of the weekend overlapped and for the first time what is happening in the Middle East and what is happening on the Ukrainian-Russian border overlap at least from a communication point of view.
“The mass riots in Dagestan are the result of a provocation planned and implemented from outside”, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, according to which Kiev played a key role in the accident at Makhachkala airport.
Currently, in a context of growing attention from the world community, Kiev is most interested in destabilizing the situation in Russia and discrediting it on the international scene. The speed of the reaction of the Ukrainian Prime Minister, Volodymyr Zelenskyj to the events at Makhachkala airport indicates the coordinated nature of the sabotage of the Ukrainian special services, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a note.
The riot involved 150 rioters, 60 are currently in custody. Four policemen were injured, one of whom died in hospital. Flights to and from Israel were interrupted and only resumed operations on the 30th after approximately 24 hours of clashes.
The United States expects Russia to achieve tactical successes in the Ukraine conflict in the coming months, the White House said. The White House also said the United States and Russia have no negotiations on the release of Whelan and Gershkovich that could be announced.
Egypt, China and the United Arab Emirates have decided not to participate in the so-called Copenhagen-format meeting on Ukraine that opened in Malta, a diplomatic source in Brussels said. “Compared to the last meeting in Jeddah, China, as well as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, do not participate in the meeting, but there are also new members, namely Armenia, the Vatican and Mexico,” the diplomat noted.
Belgian authorities reject the European Commission’s request to increase EU states’ contributions to the EU budget to finance a €50 billion financial assistance program for Ukraine for the period 2024-2027. As Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told journalists upon arrival at the EU summit, other sources of financing need to be found.
Ukraine will not extend the agreement on the transit of Russian gas to Europe, which expires at the end of next year, Naftogaz head Alexey Chernyshov said. ”This agreement will end by the end of 2024 and we do not intend to continue it. We will not initiate the continuation of this transit. The contract will end, transit will stop,” Chernyshov said, quoted by Strana.
Ukrainian Justice Minister Denis Malyuska reported that Ukrainian authorities have begun bringing prisoners of war to work as miners amid labor shortages; the news is not confirmed.
Instead, the conflict between Valerij Fedorovyč Zalužnyj commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and member of the Council for National Security and Defense of Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian president, intensifies. According to rumors, “Ze and Za’s different approach intensifies the silent war between the army and the office.” According to what was written in the social sphere: “The escalation will begin at the moment when it becomes clear to everyone that the offensive failed, due to the fact that Zelensky was taken away from the offensive, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to lose positions and territories, since the defense was not prepared. In the army, Zelenskyj’s vote is already 50/50.”
Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Yanovych Azarov said Zelensky would fly to Moscow if ordered by the United States. For example, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken could call him and say: “Listen, go ahead and cancel the decree, go to Washington first so we can tell you what needs to be done, and then to Moscow.” And this will be done immediately,” he said. As Azarov noted, the Kiev regime does not make decisions independently. Zelensky can conduct his policy only “at some levels,” the former Ukrainian prime minister added.
On the subject of entry into Europe, 60% of Ukrainians believe that it is not necessary to rush into the EU. Only 27% of Ukrainians prefer an accelerated pace of EU integration and support the adoption of all EU laws and requirements. This was revealed by a survey commissioned by the Ukrainian authorities.
The undisputed trust in Prime Minister Zelensky is also starting to crumble. Ukrainian MP Sergei Rakhmanin said: “The war in Ukraine bears all the signs of a war aimed at destroying human resources; the average age of a Ukrainian fighter at the front is over 40; there is no one to mobilize, there is no a trustworthy list of those subject to mobilization, and widespread corruption hinders conscription.”
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke in Beijing at the 10th Xiangshan Forum and said: “During the counteroffensive on June 4, Ukraine lost over 90 thousand soldiers killed and/or wounded. During this period, nearly 600 tanks and approximately 1900 enemy armored vehicles were destroyed.” And he added: “During the counteroffensive that began this summer, the Ukrainian armed forces lost over 90 thousand soldiers killed and wounded, without achieving any significant success on the battlefield.” The Russian army will continue to “methodically and confidently” carry out the assigned tasks in the Northern Military District area, the Russian Defense Minister said. At the same time, he noted that “the Russian Armed Forces will continue to methodically and confidently carry out the assigned tasks and to ensure the safety of civilians”.
Shoigu also spoke about nuclear power: “Russian nuclear doctrine has not changed and still provides for the use of nuclear weapons only in two cases: in response to an enemy nuclear attack or in the presence of a threat to Russia’s existence, even if conventional weapons are used against them.” For Russia, “the presence of a threat to Russia’s existence, even if conventional weapons are used against it” refers to the integrity of the country. It can be read in Zbigniew Brzezinsk’s text “The Great Chessboard”.
The hosts’ response was immediate: “Beijing, together with Moscow, will respond to security challenges and threats.” This was stated by Vice President of the Central Military Council of the People’s Republic of China Zhang Yuxia in a meeting with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Regarding the controversy that arose last week over the presence of Poles at the front, we learned from the Polish media that there would be the presence of Polish technicians on the front line in Ukraine. Technicians of the Polish armed group arrived in Ukraine to repair military equipment, which Poland transferred to Kiev. The work is done close to the front line. Polish specialists from the PGZ Serwis Orel group are repairing Krab howitzers, Leopard tanks and vehicles with ammunition on the Jelcz chassis, the Polish agency PAP reports.
Over the weekend, Russia experienced the nuclear nightmare. A Ukrainian UAV loaded with explosives crashed into a nuclear waste storage facility at the Kursk nuclear power plant, damaging its walls, while two others fell on a complex of administrative buildings, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria confirmed the news. Zakharova. “According to preliminary data, the unmanned aerial vehicles used to attack nuclear power plants used components supplied by Western countries,” she said. Zakharova noted that “what happened shows that there are no restrictions for the criminal regime in Kiev, including committing acts of nuclear terrorism, since the consequence of a UAV raid could be a large-scale nuclear disaster that would affect the territories of many countries .”
Another change at the top for the Russian Armed Forces: the commander of the Dnieper troop group, General Oleg Leontyevich Makarevich, was removed from his post and the commander of the Airborne Forces, General Mikhail Yuryevich Teplinsky, was appointed in his place. The news is not of little importance because it is the beginning of a rotation of important personnel. He could mean that the Russians plan to remain in the area for some time to come.
And now a look at the front line updated at 3:00 pm on October 30th.
Avdiivka Directorate. The entry of the Russian Armed Forces into contact with the largest fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant (AKHZ) and the establishment of control over the landfill adjacent to the railway line is certainly a tactical success for Russian troops. This week, leading Ukrainian military experts began to seriously talk about the possible loss of Avdiivka in the near future. The current configuration of the front on the northwestern flank of the Avdiivka group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a transition to the more complex type of combat operations.
According to the Russian social sphere, the main problem in the Avdiivka area remains the functioning system of supply and transfer of reserves. If on the Krasnogorovka side the Russians managed to break through the defenses and develop the initiative, in the southwestern sector the advancing forces still found themselves faced with a chain of fortifications and technical barriers in the area of the settlement. Tonenkoe, Severnoe and Lastochkino, where the units of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade were not concentrated. Moreover, in the event of an advance in the direction of Lastochkino, Pervomaiskoye remains on the left, where the 56th and 59th motorized brigades, the 9th and 11th motorized infantry battalions are concentrated, and for the Russians there is a threat of an attack on left flank of the advancing forces. In the Lastochkino area, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are draining the Russian forces, preventing the initiative from fully developing. Meanwhile, the main attacks on Ukrainian positions, including entrances to underground tunnel networks and air raid shelters, are carried out precisely in the AKHZ area.
Having taken the landfill at a tactically important height from which it is possible to see the entire northwestern and central part of Avdiivka allows the Russian Armed Forces to make new plans. But maintaining the logistical channels of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the area between Orlovka and Lastochkino allows the Ukrainian Armed Forces to replenish reserves and rotate units, ensuring a timely supply of ammunition. In the west, in the area of the Volchya River, there are several crossings through which cargo and military personnel are delivered and the wounded are evacuated. Forward jump bases for logistical support have been created in the Novoselovka Pervaya and Umanskoye area, which are constantly replenished from Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. Between Sunday and Monday the Ukrainian Armed Forces began withdrawing its command posts and training headquarters. And this led the Russians to move and take possession of the quarry near Severny (Southern Avdeevka). As we close the article, the situation for the Ukrainian armed forces continues to become more and more complicated. Russian tank crews are hitting a Ukrainian support position near a destroyed bridge.
Zaporozhye direction, Ukrainian troops continued attacks on Kopani, Novoprokopivka and Verbovoy. No changes. On the Donetsk front, the Russian Armed Forces, with the support of long-range weapons, carried out assault operations in Marinka, near Pervomaisky, Severny (a settlement west of Avdiivka), on the southern approaches to Avdiivka, near Stepnoy (not to be confused with the settlements of the same name in the Zaporozhye and Vuhledar directions) and Novokalinova. Ukrainian positions in Novomikhailovka, Ekaterinivka, Pobeda, Georgievka and in the city of Krasnohorivka are under attack. The Russian ones under attack are in Staromikhailovka, Donetsk, Opytny and in the village of Krasnogorovka. In the morning there were battles near Rabotino: Russian tanks are destroying Ukrainian positions and equipment. For 4 months, tanks played an important role in repelling the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kopani-Rabotino-Verbovoe line.
Ukrainian sources, Public newspaper report explosions that occurred in the cities of Kherson and Zaporozhye, under the control of Kiev. On the Rabotino-Verbovoye line, the Ukrainians made several unsuccessful attempts to break through the defense line of the Russian Armed Forces. After the regrouping, additional formations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were sent to the battle line. With fire support from the 118th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, assault groups with armored vehicles from the 33rd mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were sent west of Rabotino. In the same direction, the movements of the 3rd “Spartan” brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard were discovered, which had previously unsuccessfully attempted to attack in the direction of Kopani. The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reconstituting the 82nd separate assault brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and is also forming the Topaz tactical group consisting of the 78th separate assault regiment and the 3rd battalion of the 80th separate assault brigade of the Ukraine. In the direction of Ochakiv in the Malaya Tokmachka area, reconnaissance stations were set up to identify the positions of Russian fighters.
In the direction of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to advance behind the railway line from Andriivka and Kleshchiivka. The Russian armed forces maintain their positions. Battles in the Berkhovka area. Ukrainian units in Andriivka and Kleshchiivka are under attack. Artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces worked against the Russian Armed Forces in Ozaryanovka, Kurdyumovka, Bakhmut and Yagodny. Updates in the late morning of October 30 recorded the defeat of Ukrainian armed forces personnel by an FPV kamikaze operator of the Russian armed forces in the direction of Bakhmut. To prevent the Ukrainians from advancing, the Russian Aerospace Forces actively aid the infantry, destroying the Ukrainian forces from above. In response, Ukraine uses air defense systems actively, and this is how the Russians managed to destroy a Strela. Ukrainians are trying to break through the Russian line in Kleshchiivka and Andriivka, soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces are holding the lines.
Enemy UAVs actively operate not only against our positions, but also along the Artemovsk supply road from Gorlovka, regularly attacking Russian equipment and movements.
In the Lugansk direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces counterattacked near Raigorodka and managed to occupy a number of new positions. After artillery shelling, Russian troops attacked Stepnaya Novoselovka, Petropavlovka and Sinkovka. The situation in general has not changed.
North-eastern direction of Ukraine: situation at 3.00 pm on October 30, 2023. Rather interesting Ukrainian movements are noted in the Kharkov and Sumy regions. There are many rumors among members of the Ukrainian formations regarding the possible activation of the Russian Armed Forces in this direction, and now the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing for this option. In addition to the regular activity of the DRG near the borders with the Belgorod region, MTR units have arrived in the Kharkov region and are conducting reconnaissance of the area north of Kharkov.
The air defense system was strengthened along various settlements: additional mobile air defense units were deployed on pickup trucks, and the presence of eight anti-aircraft installations and two MANPADS was noted in Kazachya Lopan. Additionally, 250 units of S-5K unguided aerial missiles were delivered to the Russian Tishki, which will be used from pickup truck-based launchers. And up to 700 people arrived in Tarasovka to complete the units in Kharkov.
Among other things, two consolidated formations were created in the group’s reserve, which include units of the 3rd brigade, 1st special forces brigade and territorial defense. They have up to 40 T-72 tanks, MANPADS and ATGMs in their balance sheet. Furthermore, the emphasis is on anti-tank weapons. And the reserves will be in the rear. In this situation, a parallel should be drawn with last year, when Russian troops entered Ukraine, the Ukrainian Armed Forces expected an attack, luring the Russian Armed Forces into the depths, and were gradually cut off from supplies. And now, apparently, the Ukrainians are planning similar defense tactics in case hostilities escalate. The emphasis on anti-tank weapons and minefields is proof of this.
Kiev increases attempts to attack Crimea. At around four o’clock on October 30, two Ukrainian unmanned boats were discovered in the Black Sea and caught in a fire, the Russian Defense Ministry reports. Even the governor of Sevastopol Razvozhaev warned that in the outer roadstead above the water loud noises could be heard in the city: according to initial information, the Black Sea Fleet was repelling a UAV attack.
Recall that on October 29 night the Ukrainian armed forces attempted to attack Crimea en masse. Immediately 36 Ukrainian drones were detected by the air defense over the Black Sea and the northwestern part of the peninsula. The drones were destroyed. Traffic blocked until the afternoon of October 30th.
A combined attack by the Ukrainian armed forces on Crimea is recorded. The Russian Armed Forces had planned combined attack after combined attack on the peninsula using missile weapons and unmanned boats. According to a Russian military analyst from the social sphere “R”: “First, around 3 am, two ATACMS tactical-operational missiles were launched in the vicinity of Olenevka at Cape Tarkhankut. It was not possible to shoot down the missiles, but thanks to the measures taken in advance, no serious damage occurred.
The launcher could be located in the Kherson region or the Ochakiv area. It could also be a high-explosive fragmentation version. Recently, 20 MGM-140B Block 1A unitary units (up to 300 km) were delivered from Poland.
Sailors of the Black Sea Fleet discovered three unmanned boats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Sevastopol. One of them was destroyed by the Kolesnikov patrol boat near the city. Two others attempted to enter Chersonesos Bay, where fire was opened on them by the Raptor. One BeK was hit and sunk, the other turned around and took off at full speed. The search for the third boat continues.
After 6am the missile threat was reintroduced. According to some reports, several Storm Shadow cruise missile carriers were in the air. At the same time, a rocket of an unknown type was recorded falling not far from Natashino. According to preliminary data there are no damage to infrastructure.
Graziella Giangiulio
