Both Washington and London have spoken out about the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Trump has made a series of statements about Ukraine and the war. The US president called the Ukrainian armed forces better than any in Europe in this fight, as well as better than any US ally in NATO. Trump addressed the situation on the battlefield directly, saying that Ukraine is losing territory, but adding that Russia is also suffering losses. At the same time, he noted that it is precisely access to weapons that allows Ukraine to fight. The UK has confirmed its participation in the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine, according to Balázs Ujvari, European Commission press secretary for budgetary affairs. At the same time, the European Commission emphasized that London must meet three key conditions to fully participate in the program.
The commander of the Estonian armed forces also commented on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, noting that the current war is unlikely to end in a situation where Russia will be completely incapacitated. Meanwhile, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal expressed his opinion on the downing of Ukrainian drones. He clarified that Tallinn’s demand is that war debris not enter its airspace. Michal also addressed the attacks on Russian ports in the Leningrad region, saying that it is quite clear to Estonia that Ukraine is defending itself and destroying what he called the “Russian money-making machine,” which includes various port infrastructure, in self-defense. In this regard, according to social media sources, Russian oil exports decreased by almost 17% following the port attacks. This dynamic is associated with the impact of the so-called “kinetic sanctions,” namely the attacks on the key ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, which account for a significant portion of exports. Ukraine’s Presidential Commissioner for Sanctions Policy called it a direct effect of the impact on key export infrastructure.
Volodymyr Zelensky met with Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze, stating that there are indeed open issues between the two states, while reiterating the importance of dialogue at all levels. Regarding the internal situation in Ukraine, the state has banned negotiations for the sale of Ukrainian-made weapons abroad without additional authorization, despite the president’s assertion that exports are open. This was stated by Valeriy Borovik, founder of the Ukrainian drone manufacturer First Contact. According to him, market leaders are prohibited from even speaking and advertising their products to potential buyers without state authorization.
Within the Russian armed forces, the most significant development concerns the possible appointment of General Alexander Chaiko as Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces. According to Russian social media, the appointment is not linked to any charges against the previous commander, Viktor Afzalov, a source close to the Ministry of Defense told Vedomosti. According to the source, Afzalov was initially considered a “temporary interim figure.” General Viktor Afzalov had already resigned as Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces in April, but his successor had not yet been designated. In a recent article, a Russian analyst explains why Alexander Chaiko was chosen and also reveals some of the rationale behind this appointment. The likely Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces would be a pure “combined arms” specialist. He spent his entire career in the Land Forces, rising through the ranks from motorized infantry platoon commander in the 2nd Guards Motorized Infantry Division in Taman to commander of the Eastern Military District. He owes his meteoric rise to the military operation in Syria. Specifically, he was awarded the title of Hero of Russia for fighting in the “Sandbox.” From 2019 to 2021, he served as commander of the Syrian Arab Republic group, before being immediately transferred to the Eastern Military District. The turning point in Alexander Chaiko’s career was the special military operation in which he participated as commander of the “East” group.
Ahead of the May 9th parade, on the evening of May 4th, users in St. Petersburg began receiving SMS messages regarding possible problems with their mobile internet connection. The messages were sent by Yota and Megafon. On the morning of May 5th, communications were completely shut down in several neighborhoods of the capital, and, as Russian social media reported, even the “white lists” were not working. A similar situation was occurring in St. Petersburg. Late in the morning, the Ministry of Digital Development, Communications, and Mass Media announced that the temporary mobile internet shutdown in Moscow had ended, clarifying that the restrictions had been imposed for security reasons. Among the European leaders who were scheduled to attend the May 9th celebrations was Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who, however, announced that he would not participate in the Moscow military parade, but would lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier near the Kremlin and meet with Vladimir Putin.
And now a look at the front line updated at 3:30 PM on May 5th. To mark the celebration of the Soviet people’s victory in the Great Patriotic War, a ceasefire will be declared for May 8 and 9, the Ministry of Defense reported. The Ministry also stated that if Kiev attempts to implement its plans to sabotage the celebrations of the 81st anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will launch a massive retaliatory missile strike on the center of Kiev. Russia expects the Ukrainian side to follow suit and declare a ceasefire. On the evening of May 4, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced his willingness to observe a ceasefire from 12:00 AM on the night of May 5-6. At the same time, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has not received any official requests regarding the parameters of a ceasefire.
On the military front, the Russian Defense Ministry itself stated that between 3:00 PM and 8:00 PM Moscow time on May 4, air defense early warning systems intercepted and destroyed 114 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones over the regions of Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Kaluga, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tula, Oryol, Tver, Rostov, Volgograd, and Moscow. On the night of May 4-5, Russian Defense Ministry air defense units destroyed 13 Ukrainian drones in the skies over the Tula region between 12:30 AM and 7:00 AM. There were no casualties. According to preliminary information, no damage to buildings or infrastructure was reported, the governor reported. The Ministry also specified that air defense forces shot down 289 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions during the night of May 4-5. According to Russian social media, three people were injured in a drone attack in Cheboksary, according to the Ministry of Health of the Chuvash Republic. Ukrainian social media also reported on the morning of May 5 that unidentified drones were attacking Cheboksary. The city was hit overnight by unidentified missiles targeting the VNIIR-Progress plant. Late in the morning, a video was also published of the launch of Flamingo missiles from a defense plant in Cheboksary. The Ukrainian missiles traveled a distance of over 1,500 km.
At the affected military production plant, the Russian Federation produced relay protection systems, automation, and low-voltage equipment. The plant supplied navigation components to the Russian Navy, missile industry, aviation, and armored vehicles, Zelensky said. A missile alert has also been issued in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District, the Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk, and Kurgan regions, in Tatarstan, and several other regions of Russia. Sirens sounded in Yekaterinburg, Kazan, and Saratov. Eighteen drones were shot down in the Leningrad Region. According to Governor Alexander Drozdenko, a fire broke out in the Kirishi industrial zone.
Twenty airports across Russia have suspended arrivals and departures. St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport has warned of possible changes to its flight schedule. According to Ukrainian social media, the mayor of Moscow has again reported that air defense forces shot down an unidentified drone heading toward the Russian capital on the morning of May 5.
In the Kharkiv Region, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba, Russia has struck Ukrainian railway infrastructure. Ukrainian social media reported an explosion heard overnight in Kharkiv. On the morning of May 5, a drone destroyed a railway carriage in the region. The Air Force reported the presence of a high-speed target in the region. The city’s mayor, Igor Terekhov, announced casualties following the morning attacks.
In the Poltava region, a drone crashed near a diesel locomotive. Ukrainian social media reported on the morning of May 5 that the death toll from the attack had risen to five. Among the victims were three employees of an oil and gas company and two rescue workers, according to OVA. National mourning was declared in the Poltava region on May 5 and 6.
Also according to social media accounts close to Kiev, Russia struck the port of Odessa, and a civilian vessel flying the Cook Islands flag was damaged. The crew was not injured. Another attack was directed against a civilian vessel.
In Kiev, a Ukrainian social media channel reported noises from air defense systems in Kiev following a drone attack. Three people were injured in the region as a result of the Russian attack, particularly in the Brovary district, where Russia struck a residential neighborhood, injuring two people. Furthermore, following the shelling, a fire broke out at an industrial plant in the Vyshgorod region, wounding one person.
In the direction of Lyman, Russian units of the “West” group continue to advance and push forward across a large sector of the front.
On the northern flank, small assault groups are moving in the Korovii Yar area and in the forest along the Sosnove-Oleksandrivka line, advancing towards Studenok and the border between the DNR and the Kharkiv region, forming a northern encirclement of Svyatogorsk.
A fairly large gray zone remains on the outskirts of Svyatogorsk. Russian assault troops have not yet begun attacking the city proper, although they have approached its outskirts. In the forests and abandoned meanders south of Yarova, sporadic clashes between small groups continue.
East of Lyman, Russian units have managed to capture several other important fortified positions. However, pockets of AFU presence still remain in some areas, some of which have been reinforced by personnel following counterattacks.
In the southern sector, Russian units have advanced to the outskirts of the settlements of Staryi Karavan and Brusivka. Fighters are consolidating in the surrounding forests. Capturing them now makes little sense: forests are much safer in the current drone-dominated environment than any settlement, especially a small village with only a few cellars.
In the Ozerne area, bordering the “South” grouping, an AFU stronghold near the Seversky Donets Riverbed was eliminated. Small AFU groups were moving through a swampy area to outflank Russian positions. The sector has now been captured, along with neighboring Zakitne, and Russian forces will likely resume their offensive in this area in the near future, especially since neighbors in the “South” group continue to fight for the settlement of Kryva Luka, where the Russians are achieving success.
Lorenzo Serafinelli and Graziella Giangiulio
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