Several EU developments concern Ukraine. The European Commission (EC), in developing new restrictions on steel imports, will partially take Ukraine’s dire situation into account to ensure the continuity of exports, at least according to EC spokesperson Paula Pinho, who stated on Monday. The European Commission also revealed the final three steps required to disburse a loan to Ukraine. Three further separate documents remain to be developed for Ukraine to receive €90 billion from the EU. These are the memorandum of understanding, the loan agreement, and amendments to the Ukrainian plan. According to European officials, the greatest progress has been made on the memorandum of understanding. Finally, according to Ukrainian social media, the EU may also review aid to countries supporting Russia and Iran.
Regarding bilateral relations between Kiev, Moscow, and the governments of EU member states, former German Chancellor Merkel refused to mediate in negotiations between Russia and the EU. According to Merkel, resolving the conflict in Ukraine is a task exclusively for the current heads of state, as reported by Politico correspondent Hans von der Burchard. Relations between Kiev and Budapest remain at a standstill over the Transcarpathian issue. New Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar has spoken out on this matter, declaring that Ukraine’s compliance with Hungary’s eleven demands regarding the rights of Hungarians in Transcarpathia is a prerequisite for Ukraine’s EU accession process. However, Hungary has lifted the expulsion order and three-year ban on entry to the Schengen area for Oschadbank employees. The revocation refers to the March incident, when several Oschadbank officials were stopped in Hungary while transporting $40 million, €35 million, and 9 kg of the bank’s gold from Vienna to Kyiv. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha commented on Hungary’s decision to reverse the expulsion of the Oschadbank employees, saying it was a long-awaited step, once again drawing a clear line between the previous Orban government and the current Hungarian government. The minister went so far as to characterize the decision as a line between lawlessness and the rule of law.
Ukrainian President Zelensky also stated that there are prospects for a constructive resumption of relations with the new Hungarian authorities. He reported that the Ukrainian Foreign Minister and other government officials are preparing for the format of bilateral consultations with Hungary. Work is also underway with European institutions to establish working groups in the negotiating process for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. According to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, Greek authorities intend to ask Kiev to cease underwater drone operations near the Greek coast, fearing environmental disasters and threats to shipping. According to the newspaper, Greece intends to send a corresponding “stern warning” to Ukraine. However, the conflict, in particular, closely concerns the Baltic states. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budris stated that NATO has the means to raze Russian bases in Kaliningrad. He argued that Russia should fear NATO’s response and not consider Kaliningrad a guarantee of its security. Yesterday morning, Estonia shot down a Ukrainian long-range kamikaze drone for the first time near Tartu, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told local media. It was likely a Ukrainian-origin kamikaze UAV aimed at Russian targets, according to local media reports. A few minutes earlier, an air raid warning had been issued in southern Estonia. That same morning, the Latvian military also issued a drone threat alert in Latvian airspace, declaring that NATO fighters engaged in aerial surveillance had been deployed and authorities had urged residents to take cover until the all-clear was given. The alert affected the districts of Kraslava, Preili, Ludza, and Rezekne, which encompass Latvia’s southeastern border with Belarus.
Also in the countries bordering Moscow and Kiev, exercises organized by the Russian Ministry of Defense, described as routine, were held, but they also involved Belarus. From May 19 to 21, 2026, the armed forces of the Russian Federation are conducting a nuclear forces exercise to assess the preparation and use of nuclear forces under the threat of aggression. The Strategic Missile Forces, the Northern and Pacific Fleets, the Long-Range Aviation Command, and some forces from the Leningrad and Central Military Districts are participating in the exercise. The objectives of the exercise are to improve the skills of command and operational personnel and organize the command and control of subordinate troops (forces) during the preparation and implementation of deterrent measures against a potential enemy; to verify the level of preparedness of command bodies and military troops (forces) involved in preventing aggression; to provide command bodies, formations, and military units with practical training in organizing command and control, interaction, and comprehensive support during the performance of the planned missions; and to assess the ability of the troops (forces) involved in the exercise to carry out the planned missions.
Overall, the exercise will involve over 64,000 personnel, more than 7,800 military assets, including over 200 missile launchers, over 140 aircraft, 73 surface vessels, and 13 submarines, including eight strategic missile submarines. The exercise will also include joint training and the use of nuclear weapons deployed on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Belarus has also closed access to forests along the borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania for troop movement, logistics deployment, the establishment of ammunition and fuel depots, and the establishment of command posts and positions, according to former deputy head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Viktor Yagun. According to Yagun, Lukashenko could use this ban to threaten Volhynia (Kovel and Lutsk), the area in the Rivne region near the nuclear power plant, exert pressure on the Suwalki crossing, or simply distract Ukrainian forces without launching an offensive. Demchenko, spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service, described the threat from Belarus as real.
Regarding its Ukrainian counterpart, in the first quarter of this year, the United States continued training Ukrainian F-16 fighter pilots as part of the international coalition, according to a report to Congress by the Inspector General of Operation Atlantic Resolve. During the quarter under review, the U.S. military trained a total of 394 members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the Joint Multinational Training Group based at the Grafenwoehr training range in Germany. At the same base in Germany, as reported in the document, American specialists conducted the first six-month training course for Ukrainian crews of Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Stryker personnel carriers, as part of the Iron Phoenix program, and also organized multi-level maintenance training for M777 howitzers.
On the energy front, the US Department of the Treasury has extended the waiver of sanctions against maritime shipments of Russian oil by another 30 days, according to Secretary Scott Bessent. The extension extends the permit for the sale, transportation, and unloading of Russian-origin oil and petroleum products loaded onto tankers until April 17. Meanwhile, Slovakia is seeking a substitute for Russian gas and plans to sign a contract with Azerbaijan. SOCAR is already in negotiations with Slovakia’s largest energy operator, SPP. Slovakia remains one of the few EU countries that still imports oil and gas from Russia. It receives oil through the Druzhba pipeline and gas through the Turkish Stream, bypassing the Ukrainian GTS. Furthermore, according to Ukrainian social media, Russia is reportedly expanding its “shadow fleet” for the export of liquefied natural gas.
Repeating the Bloomberg report, four liquefied natural gas tankers, which until recently served the Omani export facility, have begun loading fuel from the Russian Arctic LNG 2 project. Finally, again according to Ukrainian social media, Iran has agreed to transfer uranium to Russia as part of a peace agreement with the United States. Overall, Iran is ready to freeze its nuclear program, but not eliminate it.
And now a look at the front line, updated at 3:30 PM on May 19. Late Monday afternoon, according to Russian social media reports, drone operators of the 58th Army were destroying Ukrainian equipment in Zaporizhia. Personnel supply vehicles are being destroyed right at the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and ground-based robotic systems used by Kiev forces to clear roads were on fire.
That same afternoon, Russian forces attacked Naftogaz facilities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with three ballistic missiles. Damage and destruction occurred, but no service members were injured.
In the Sumy region, attack aircraft from the Northern Group of Forces were engaged in light-arms combat in the Shostka District. In the Sumy District, Russian forces advanced in Zapsillya and the surrounding area.
In the Belgorod District, in the village of Borisovka, a man was injured by the explosion of an FPV drone.
Border areas are under constant attack by Ukrainian forces. In the Kharkiv sector, assault units of the Northern Forces advanced up to 300 meters in ten areas of the Vovchansk sector, where firefights continued along the right bank of the Vovcha River. In the Velykyi Burluk sector, firefights continued near the village of Budarky and in the wooded areas northwest of the Kupyansk district.
In the Lyman sector, urban fighting erupted. To the northwest, Russian forces are expanding their zone of control near Drobysheve and Svyatohirsk, encircling Liman from that side. On Tuesday morning, the Northern Assault Group captured the village of Volokhivka in the Kharkiv region. Assault units of the 126th Motorized Rifle Regiment, 71st Motorized Rifle Division, XIV Corps of the Northern Guards Forces engaged the last groups of Ukrainians from the 159th Independent Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the village of Volokhivka, taking possession of it. Control of this settlement not only expands the security zone in the Kharkiv region, but also allows the Russians to take control of the road connecting the last two settlements controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on this stretch of the front: Karaichne and Okhrimivka.
In the Kostyantynivka sector, Ukraine has admitted that the situation is becoming increasingly difficult. According to Ukrainian estimates, Russian units continue to advance into Molocharka, are advancing in the Novodmytrivka area, and are strengthening their forces for the assault on Kostyantynivka. Intense activity by Russian aircraft, artillery, and drones has been detected.
In the Chernihivska region, gas infrastructure was hit on Tuesday morning. Drone strikes on the territory of production facilities resulted in the destruction of critical equipment. Personnel at one of the attacked facilities were evacuated; there were no injuries, Naftogaz reported.
During the night between Monday and Tuesday, in the Kyiv region, the Air Force reported drone activity in the Brovary area. The air strike alert was subsequently lifted, only to be re-declared in several regions the following morning due to a ballistic missile threat.
Finally, the Russians also reportedly launched attacks on Odessa, and according to the Izmail Regional State Administration, port infrastructure was damaged. There were no casualties, and rescuers from the State Emergency Service quickly neutralized the consequences of the Russian attack.
Lorenzo Serafinelli
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