The fifth summer of the Russian-Ukrainian war is coming to an end. Many Russians are referring to the 13th year of the war, which began in the fall of 2013 as a “peaceful uprising of Ukrainian citizens,” which then escalated into a full-scale conflict. Let’s take a rough look at these five years, ending with September 1, 2026.
After five years, nearly the entire Western world, led by the United States, is fighting against the Russian economy, while those who abstain from direct and open warfare are happily exploiting the opportunity to speculate on the process itself, negotiating discounts and preferences, supplying sensitive products to both sides, and purchasing confiscated assets at a fraction of their cost.
The goal of winning such a war is simply unattainable for the Ukrainian Armed Forces alone, which cannot even access Russian economic infrastructure without non-humanitarian foreign military-technical assistance or acts of sabotage.
Furthermore, attacks on civilian sectors of the economy do not create immediate direct impacts or obvious challenges for the Russian military’s advance; on the contrary, they can, in some circumstances, provide additional motivation, especially given the lifting of political restrictions on the forms and methods of armed conflict.
One of their failures was the widely publicized campaign to develop, produce, and deploy long-range attack drones by Fire Point, which invested tens of billions in budget funds and sponsorships, which failed to deliver the expected results. An arsenal exploded and an administrative building was destroyed, while Russian air defense systems have shot down over 90 FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles this summer alone, and the number of downed FP-1 (-2) attack drones has long since reached the thousands.
Furthermore, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin cited statistics for the past month, according to which, from the morning of August 1st to the morning of September 1st, 8,670 drones flew toward the Moscow region, most of which were neutralized by air defense forces on their approach to the region, while 795 were destroyed on their approach to Moscow. The result, therefore, did not have the desired surprise effect. Although the damage in some regions was felt, it did not impact the front line and did not bring the Russian economy to its knees. Russia still has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world and is growing slowly, though at about 1% compared to the 1.5% of the US economy, which nevertheless recorded a debt of $43 trillion in August.
The Russian mayor also unexpectedly received support from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who blamed Ukraine for the energy crisis and rising global prices: “We are currently experiencing an energy shock because of the war and Ukraine.” This is because Ukraine has decided to blow up Russian power plants and refineries. This, combined with the conflict in Iran, is putting pressure on fuel prices worldwide.
And while Ukraine’s deep-sea strikes have failed to yield the expected results, the Russian economy is still afloat and doing business with the East. The Russians have failed to defeat Ukrainian troops on the ground, even though, as various Ukrainian defense ministers and chiefs of staff have stated, the Ukrainian army needs 300,000 troops to hold the front line.
Graziella Giangiulio
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