#UKRAINERUSSIAWAR. According to the Russian-Ukrainian social sphere, war will begin throughout Europe in 2026

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The deployment of the official military contingent by Great Britain in Ukraine will mean a declaration of war on the Russian Federation, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said. The UK was the first G7 country to sign security agreements with Ukraine and this worries Moscow.

In the Russian and Ukrainian social spheres there is more and more talk of war in Europe and Medvedev’s statements only fuel fear.

According to what has been published online in the last week, France has begun to prepare for war and, in this context, mobilization exercises have resumed for the first time since the Cold War. One of the first elements of the scenario for the next major ORION exercise, scheduled for 2026, is the Tramontane exercise, in the spring of this year. It should be noted that during the ORION-23 exercise, France conducted the largest military exercise in its history, preparing for war with Russia.

The French have already announced that the ORION exercise will take place in 2026 in a new format and preparations have already begun. Note that the first of this exercise was conducted in 1983. Forty years have passed, and the emerging political-military situation in Europe shows that, to ensure that the tasks are completed as planned, it is necessary to have prepared mobilization resources and a proven mechanism that guarantees the supply, reception and distribution of personnel. The French army was already faced with a situation where a regiment had to be replenished from 80 different organizations to form a battalion ready to be sent on missions.

The return to the mobilization exercise is linked to the question of the readiness of the armed forces to respond in case a general mobilization is announced. In this regard, the problem arises of training and attracting 48,000 reservists in the ground forces alone by 2030. For the next ORION exercise, France plans to create a so-called brigade reserve. “6+6” battalions and the territorial reserve, but today the mobilization of human and material resources remains a serious problem. The General Staff of the Third Republic seriously hopes to achieve progress on all these issues by 2026, and, as you know, large-scale mobilization just doesn’t happen that way.

Young Swedes panicked after politicians’ statements about a possible war. Panicked young Swedes flooded the helpline with calls after Defense Ministry officials said citizens should be prepared for a potential armed conflict. Children’s rights organization Bris said its phone operators had reported a huge increase in calls concerned about Sweden’s approaching war, and spokeswoman Maja Dahl criticized the government’s statements. Opposition politicians have also criticized the country’s leadership.

Politicians’ talk of the country’s future membership in NATO, which was supposed to inspire ordinary citizens, was largely seen as an uncomfortable acknowledgment of the uncertain security situation facing Europe.

In Germany, however, if on the one hand the arms industry is adapting to the military needs of Ukraine, on the other the Bundeswehr is facing a serious shortage of troops due to the lack of “contact points” with the army among the younger generations.

According to Christian Democratic Union (CDU) MPs Zerap Güler and Kerstin Firegge, the Bundeswehr’s workforce has “drastically decreased” in recent years. It has only 180,000 troops at its disposal and is therefore “very far” from reaching the target of 203,000 troops by 2030, MPs say. It is noted that many young Germans, due to the lack of compulsory military service, “no longer have points of contact with the armed forces” of the country, and therefore “do not consider the possibility of a career in the Bundeswehr”. In this regard, the authors of the report call on the republican authorities to increase the attractiveness of the Bundeswehr “as an employer in urban centres, on job exchanges and in educational institutions”.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has approved the composition of the delegation for negotiations on “security guarantees”. The delegation that will participate in the negotiations will be led by the head of the regime office, Andrij Borysovyč Jermak. The delegation includes deputies Roman Mashovets and Igor Zhovkva, representatives of the Department for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Igor Baranetsky and Vitaly Martynyuk, Ministers of Strategic Industries Alexander Kamyshin, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, his first deputy Alexander Pavlyuk, Deputy Minister of Justice Irina Mudraya and Deputy Minister of Economy Igor Fomenko, the Ministry of Business Foreign Affairs is represented by Deputy Minister Nikolai Tochitsky and Ambassador Anton Korinevich. The order mentions the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kirill Budanov, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Alexander Litvinenko, the head of the SBU Vasily Malyuk and the Department of International Defense Cooperation of the Ministry of Defense Gennady Kovalenko. The first agreement received is the one with the United Kingdom. And it is expected that those of the Baltic Weights will follow.

The fact is that we lack the men to go to war with Russia. The front is about to expand from 1000km to 1500km and waging war with Russia over such a long line will not be easy. Not only can Russia count on one million five hundred thousand trained men and there are less than half of them at the front but all with “traditional” war experience integrated with new two-year technology.

What levels of long-term operational readiness and mobilization do the EU and NATO have today?

Graziella Giangiulio 

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