Al-Shabab may be preparing to conquer Mogadishu and establish its own government within the next few weeks, taking advantage of the ongoing political tensions within the federal government and the capital itself. Al-Shabab has deployed 3,000 militants and 200 elite units near the areas of Daru Salaam and Afgoi. Their strategy aims to control the capital Mogadishu and convince several ministers and parliamentarians of the current Somali administration to join them to form a new government that follows the Sharia. According to Somali and American military intelligence sources, this operation will take place within the next two weeks.
Al-Shabab has already taken control of several key cities in Middle Shabelle and the president of the state has fled Giohar, seeking refuge in the village of El Gudud after making a deal with the Shabab to take control of the districts of Giohar and Mahadayweyne. Al-Shabab also controls the Balad district, 30 kilometers north of Mogadishu. This “pincer” fighting tactic, whose goal is to force the current Somali government to surrender, seems to emulate the Syrian model that last December ensured the control of all of Syria to Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani’s HTS group. It should be noted that numerous photo reports published by Al-Kataib Foundation for Media Production have shown mujahideen, both from Daesh and al-Qaeda, who have moved from Syria to Somalia.
The administration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is busy with internal political challenges, including the normalization of relations with Ethiopia and internal conflicts with federal member states and opposition parties. This turbulent climate can only favor the maneuvers of al-Shabab, which on March 15 targeted the military base of Awdhegle and stockpiled weapons.
A press release issued on March 18 by the Ministry of Information, Culture and Tourism of Somalia said that the Somali National Army (SNA) has intensified its operations against al-Shabab, pushing the terrorists away from their strongholds in rural areas of Middle Shabelle state. In response to the army’s decisions, al-Shabab attacked President Hassan’s convoy at 10:32 on March 18 in the Xamar-Jajab district of Mogadishu, as the President was heading to the port of Adale. Four local radio journalists were killed in the attack, while the President was unharmed. Al-Shabab continued, attacking the Halane military base of the AUSSOM mission on March 19 and the Somali Army military base in the village of Sabiid, located 40km west of Mogadishu, in the early hours of March 20. In this regard, Somali sources report that an SNA operation has repelled the advance of the Shabab towards Mogadishu, blocking them substantially in the areas surrounding Sabiid and the military base of K-50 (Afgoi). The army claims to have killed numerous al-Qaeda members, including some commanders. In the districts of Daynile and Dharkenley, the Somali National Intelligence Agency (NISA) has finally arrested four Somali citizens on charges of organizing attacks in Mogadishu.
Beatrice Domenica Penali
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