Al-Shabab attacks continue to conquer as much ground as possible in the areas surrounding Mogadishu. The tactic used in recent weeks, that of attacking simultaneously from the northern and southern parts of the state of Hiran, has allowed the Somali mujahideen to take control of the main administrative offices of the city of Balad, which is located about 30 kilometers north of Mogadishu.
This scenario opens another, that is, the possible encirclement of Mogadishu from the north, passing through Bulo Burti, from the northwest, along the road that connects Beled Hawo directly with the capital, passing through Baidoa, Bur Acaba, Afgoi, and from the south, considering the low-intensity attacks recorded in the city of Shalanbod. On March 6, the US Embassy in Mogadishu declared a state of high alert after it said there was credible intelligence of a possible attack on strategic installations, such as the airport.
Middle Shabelle State is a vital area for both the mujahideen and the Somali government, with ongoing counterinsurgency operations aimed at weakening al-Shabab’s hold. In recent months, al-Shabab has adopted an offensive strategy aimed at expanding its control over strategic areas and routes, particularly in rural areas and along key supply routes.
This includes control of villages in the Giohar district, although some have since been recaptured by Somali forces. The Somali National Army (SNA) and local clan militias, such as the Ma’awiisley, have been working to push al-Shabab back. However, the situation remains fluid, with control over some areas mixed or unclear. The group has reorganized and mobilized in remote villages, particularly along the border between the Middle Shabelle and Galgudud regions. This strategic positioning allows al-Shabab to control key supply routes, including those linking Middle Shabelle to Benedir, which are crucial for both military and economic purposes. Over the past three weeks, al-Shabab has expanded its zone of influence in the towns of Al-Kowsar, Daaru Nicma and Ceel Cali, Biyo Cadde, Buulo Hareer and War Ciise.
To date, the towns on which the Shabab persist with their attacks are Adan Yabaal, under al-Shabab control until December 2022, Giohar and surrounding areas; al-Shabab has launched attacks and temporarily taken control of villages in the district of the same name, although these have often been recaptured by government forces. The towns of Ceel Baraf and Miir Taqwo have seen intense fighting with al-Shabab claiming to have occupied them. The current status of Ceel Baraf remains unclear as control has changed hands several times. In early March it was again targeted by airstrikes against al-Shabab positions, suggesting that the group may still be based there. On 20 February al-Shabab launched an attack on Ceel Cali Axmed, taking control of the town. However, Somali forces, supported by local clan militias, recaptured it.
The latest attacks in the town of El Dher in Galgudud state suggest that al-Shabab may be able to reach the port of Adale, which is essential for trade and supplies of raw materials not only in Somalia.
To counter al-Shabab and its advance in Somalia, AUSSOM, the new African Union support and stabilization mission in Somalia, has been launched. It was established to replace the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and began operations on 1 January 2025. AUSSOM is tasked with supporting Somalia’s stabilization efforts, countering al-Shabab and other terrorist groups, and providing humanitarian assistance to the civilian population. The mission will employ over twelve thousand military personnel until 30 June 2025, and is funded 75% by contributions assessed by the UN and the remaining 25% by the African Union.
Beatrice DomenicaPenali
Segui i nostri aggiornamenti su Spigolature geopolitiche: https://t.me/agc_NW e sul nostro blog Le Spigolature di AGCNEWS: https://spigolatureagcnews.blogspot.com/
