The withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates from Yemen as a second key member of the Saudi-led coalition signals the failure of the coalition’s military strategy and a further shift in the balance of power in favor of Ansar Allah. This move weakens the government-in-exile and intensifies internal clashes between the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and Saudi-backed factions in southern and eastern Yemen, and could push southern groups to declare secession and court foreign sponsors.
The UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen, therefore, marks a serious setback and a turning point in the country’s civil war. The main consequences include fractures within the Saudi-Emirati coalition, a severe weakening of the government-in-exile, the strengthening of Ansar Allah, a growing power vacuum in the south, and the risk of deeper involvement by another external actor, potentially the United States, which will seek fragmentation in Yemen in favor of pro-Israel management of the region.
The Emirati withdrawal from the Yemen dossier represents a failure of the “Arab coalition” project; in recent years, Saudi Arabia has lost two key partners, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, in joint operations. However, it is too early to draw definitive conclusions.
The UAE’s influence over Yemen’s strategic islands such as Socotra, Abd al-Kuri, Mayun, and others is part of a broader project to control the sea routes through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, strengthened by formal agreements with the government-in-exile and supported by Western states and Israel.
And now a look at the Yemeni front line updated at 2:00 PM on January 3.
The Hadhramaut governor’s “Taking Over of Camps” operation continues, calling on the province’s population to fulfill their national and historical role. The Hadhramaut and Al-Mahra Fronts: In Hadhramaut, the northern front lines remain unchanged, with Al-Khasha’a serving as the main line of contact. The towns of Al-Qatn, Tarim, and Seiyun in Wadi Hadhramaut remain under southern control. Al-Dara’ Al-Watani (National Shield) forces have redeployed to Ramah and Thamud in the northeastern desert and have taken up positions along the Yemeni-Saudi Arabian border, likely preparing to move towards Al-Sawm, on the eastern side of Wadi Hadhramaut.
Fighting continues between elite Hadhrami forces, backed by the United Arab Emirates, and tribal fighters from the Hadhramaut Tribal Council around Ghayl Bin Yamin, as well as in Wadi Khard and Al-Ays, on the Hadhramaut coast. Tribal fighters recently retook the Nohub base and pushed STC forces back from the outskirts of Wadi Khard and Al-Ays.
In Al-Mahra, General Barjash, commander of the Second Military Region, reiterated his support for the STC and stated that he will not cede his positions to the Saudi-backed National Shield forces. He also urged civilians to stay away from military sites and installations.
Abyan Front: “On the northern axes of Abyan, STC operations against al-Qaeda elements are proceeding slowly and have produced few tangible results. Al-Qaeda cells continue to operate in secret. Aside from the integration of the Jishan district’s rapid reaction forces, no significant changes have occurred.”
Marib and Al-Jawf Fronts: Units of the Giants Brigade have withdrawn from Harib and Al-Abdiyah (south of Marib), as well as from the Kitaf and Al-Baqa fronts in northern Saada, redeploying to Hadhramaut and Shabwah. This redeployment has weakened the lines facing Ansar Allah, giving Yemeni resistance fighters the opportunity to resume their advance from Harib toward western Shabwah in the event of future clashes.
There have been no significant changes on other fronts and the Yemeni Armed Forces (aligned with Ansar Allah) continue to observe the ceasefire in force since 2023.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
Follow our updates on Geopolitical Gleanings - Spigolature geopolitiche: https://t.me/agc_NW and on our blog The Gleanings of AGCNEWS - Le Spigolature di AGCNEWS: https://spigolatureagcnews.blogspot.com/
