Three international events have kept the spotlight on the Middle Eastern social scene: Macron’s arrival in Syria; Trump’s arrival in Ankara; and Ayatollah Khamenei’s funeral from Iran to Iraq. The Syrian events should be interpreted as anti-Turkey. Macron attended the summit with leading French companies, seeking to regain the role lost during Bashar al-Assad’s rule.
Trump’s arrival in Ankara was the focus of attention on the US president’s decision to lift CAATSA sanctions against Turkey. So now Erdogan will finally be able to have his F-35s.
Regarding the continuation of the pilgrimage, the remains of Khamenei and his family will travel from Qom to Karbala and Najaf. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary, Mohammad-Baqer Zolqadar, threatens Trump: “Today you threatened 91 million Iranians. Address the Iranian people with respect, otherwise we will respond to you in another language.” “Once upon a time, as president of a country with only 250 years of history, you used similar rhetoric, declaring that you would wipe out Iran’s millennia-old civilization. The result was only defeat, despair, and, ultimately, calls for negotiations and a ceasefire. Threats have never been an accepted language for the Iranian nation. Address the Iranian people with respect. Otherwise, you will receive a very different response.”
Qaani, Commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force: “The unprecedented funeral procession for the pure body of our martyred Imam in Iraq will further strengthen the position of the two nations against American plots and reiterate the red line of vengeance for the bloodshed.” […] “The martyred Supreme Leader’s support for the great Iraqi people and the intervention of respected religious leaders led to the martyr Soleimani’s battle alongside devout Iraqi youth against ISIS and the American invasion, until the criminal Trump assassinated the hero of the two nations, along with the highly respected commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi), Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi wrote in a social media post: “Paragraph 13 of the Memorandum of Understanding is clear: negotiations on the final agreement will not begin if the threats continue.” “Millions of proud Iranians have gathered to honor Grand Ayatollah Khamenei and his legacy. Neither they nor our courageous armed forces are intimidated by any threat.”
Israeli Ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Laiter, stated that Israel is not enthusiastic about the sale of F-35s to Turkey, but that it will ultimately respect the US decision. Benjamin Netanyahu called on US President Donald Trump to refrain from transferring new weapons systems to Turkey to modernize the country’s air force.
Netanyahu visited the Haifa naval base, and the focus of his speech was Turkey. “Israel will guarantee the freedom of its sea lanes, in the face of the growing power of the Turkish navy. During the visit, the Prime Minister also reiterated his opposition to the sale of F-35 aircraft to Turkey,” Israel Hayom reported.
Israel refused to renew the water agreement that allows Jordan to receive additional water. The decision falls within the framework of the Wadi Araba Peace Agreement, signed between Jordan and Israel in 1994, which regulates the sharing of water resources between the two parties. In 2021, Israel pledged to supply Jordan with an additional 50 million cubic meters of water annually. The agreement for additional water supplies has not yet been renewed, and according to Israeli sources, there are no immediate plans to reinstate it, a decision that has angered Jordanian officials.
A military source in Lebanon commented on reports that Israel had handed over to Lebanon a list of several high-ranking Lebanese Army officers whose presence in the south was deemed undesirable because they allegedly passed information to Hezbollah. A Lebanese military source responded to these reports, telling the newspaper Al-Akhbar: “The information that the Israeli side handed over a list of names of Lebanese Army officers and requested that their presence in the south be limited is false and is not based on official data.”
The UK Maritime Trade Organisation (UKMTO) has issued its latest Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) advisory, announcing the expansion of the southern transit corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. While use of the corridor and coordination with authorities remain voluntary, vessels are advised that the route is open 24 hours a day. The bulletin also recommends: Ships are ordered to maintain automatic identification systems (AIS), radar and navigation lights, and constant monitoring of very high frequency (VHF) radio communications while at sea.
After 23,715,000 passengers were transported by subway, bus, and taxi during the three-day funeral ceremonies for the martyred leader and his family, the body arrived at the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom aboard a Mi-17 helicopter. Millions of people attended the funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei in the holy city of Qom. Khamenei’s body is currently being transported to Iraq, and two separate funeral ceremonies will be held tomorrow in the cities of Karbala and Najaf.
And now a look at the military scenarios updated as of 4:00 PM on July 7. Satellite images show that the US aircraft carrier “Abraham Lincoln” has left the Gulf of Oman and is now stationed in the Arabian Sea.
An Israeli drone struck a group of civilians south of Gaza City, wounding at least three Palestinians. Two Palestinians were killed in an Israeli strike that targeted the Al-Sabra neighborhood, south of Gaza City.
Eight Palestinians were injured after IDF-backed Jewish settlers attacked them in the Hawara area of Masafer Yatta, south of Hebron in the West Bank. According to WAFA news agency, Israeli settlers attacked several Palestinian homes, spraying pepper spray and assaulting residents, while the IDF arrested an elderly Palestinian man during the attack. Masafer Yatta, a cluster of Palestinian herding communities in the South Hebron Hills, is a constant target of settler attacks, including physical assaults, destruction of property, and attempts to evict Palestinians.
Israeli bulldozers continue to demolish Palestinian homes in Khirbet al-Deirat, as families helplessly watch the destruction of the homes they spent years building. The destruction is intended to establish new outposts for Israeli settlers. An Israeli flag is raised on a Palestinian farm in the West Bank village of Deir Ammar to assert control and facilitate land seizures. Deir Ammar and surrounding areas in the central West Bank are under increasing pressure from nearby illegal settlement outposts and settler attacks. And again on July 7, Israeli settlers destroyed Palestinian farmland with wastewater in Beit Ummar, in the West Bank. This farmland is the main source of livelihood for Palestinian farmers and their families.
According to Lebanese media, the Israeli flag, visible on Ali Taher Hill, has been there since Friday and was planted by a drone. So far, no enemy military presence has been detected on the hill. Jewish settlers, under Israeli military protection, entered an area of southern Lebanon, while settler groups called for the establishment of Israeli settlements in the region.
Several explosions rocked Damascus near the hotel where French President Macron was staying. Al-Arabiya reports that one of the victims (it is not yet clear whether he was killed or merely wounded) is the Syrian Deputy Minister of Tourism, along with 17 other people, including four police officers.
The Joint Naval Intelligence Center stated that the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz remains “significant,” but the southern section of the strait, located off the coast of Oman, has been widened and remains open to navigation. At 1:00 a.m. on July 7, an incident occurred in the Strait of Hormuz, where an oil tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile on its port side. UKMTO reports that a vessel has been hit by a shell 8 nautical miles east of Limah, Oman.
According to US officials: Two merchant vessels were hit by the Revolutionary Guards and suffered serious damage, with no injuries. A fire broke out in the engine room of the Qatari oil tanker “Al Rekayyat” (Al Rekiat) following nighttime missile attacks by the Revolutionary Guards Navy. The tanker is in danger of exploding.
The Iranian Navy has warned that any failure to comply with regulations, deviation from the designated route, or violation of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s navigation protocols in the Strait of Hormuz will result in an immediate and decisive response from the armed forces, jeopardizing the safety of the vessels involved.
Around 3:30 PM on July 7, another oil tanker was reportedly hit in the Strait of Hormuz. The UKMTO has issued a warning for a second incident. UKMTO has received a report of a further incident involving an oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The tanker was struck by an unidentified unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and sustained minor structural damage. No casualties or environmental impacts have been reported, and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call. Iran has stated that the vessel was not struck by Iran while transiting the Strait of Homruz. It was sighted yesterday at ~06:46 UTC, 42 km from Fujairah at coordinates 25.1323,56.7779. Based on the fuel trail, it was struck 20 km from the route recommended by the United States and Oman, around the first point indicated by the red arrow. The vessel may have been out of contact.
Regarding the second incident, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy sent a message to the target vessel on VHF radio channel 16: “Captain, we have bombed your ship. You must only use routes approved by the Persian Gulf Straits Authority. Any other routes are considered dangerous. “All vessels in your vicinity must immediately turn around or face imminent danger.”
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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