The Abraham Accords, created by the Trump administration, now see the United Arab Emirates among Israel’s best allies in the Middle East. This new alliance has led to a new rift, healed with great difficulty by Saudi Arabia. This has led to an imbalance that is also leading to a new escalation in Africa.
The United Arab Emirates is supporting the RSF uprising in Sudan against the incumbent government, which is supported by Russia and Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, weapons to the rebels are being transported through Libya, a fact that has caused a stir and greatly upset Prince bin Salman. Israel supports the UAE in this area.
In response to this escalation in Sudan, Saudi Arabia has moved its pawns in Yemen and undermined its alliance with the United Arab Emirates, disrupting the Southern Presidential Council to the point of resigning and bringing it back under its aegis, even though some still disagree.
To protect its interests and as an anti-Turkish measure, Israel has recognized Somaliland, angering all African countries and Saudi Arabia, including Turkey, which is investing heavily in Somalia.
Saudi Arabia has decided to act and is finalizing a military coalition agreement with Somalia and Egypt as part of efforts to limit the UAE’s regional influence, Bloomberg reports. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is expected to visit Saudi Arabia soon to finalize the agreement, which focuses on Red Sea security and broader military cooperation.
Saudi officials have encouraged Somalia to reduce ties with the United Arab Emirates, amid rising tensions between the two OPEC+ members. Iran has also entered the fray through the Houthis, based in northern Yemen. They have remained silent about bombing southern Somalia, but have said they will bomb Somaliland if Israel, as it has already stated, builds a strong military base.
Online OSINT sources report that Israel has built an advanced military facility at Berbera Airport in Somaliland, including twelve underground hangars for fighter jets and drones. Berbera Airport, located on the Gulf of Aden, has one of Africa’s longest runways, originally built during the Soviet era.
The United Arab Emirates has maintained a strong military presence at the airport since 2017. It developed the airport and adjacent port through DP World and established a base used for operations in Yemen and for monitoring sea lanes.
It seems clear that control of the Red Sea is a major regional contest with the hope that the contest pits Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey (Qatar), and Iran (an OPEC member) against the Houthis on the other hand, against Israel, the USA, and the UAE (Oman, Bahrain).
Complicating the situation could also be Russia, which is currently acting as a mediator between Iran and Israel but may decide to withdraw given Israel’s decision to militarily support the Ukrainian government.
Israel is quietly training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets. Recent reports indicate the presence of Ukrainian-speaking pilots studying at the Israeli Air Force Academy. Israel, a longtime F-16 operator and with extensive experience training both male and female pilots, appears to be training Ukrainian pilots to fly fighter jets.
Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, Israeli authorities have repeatedly and publicly denied sending military aid to Ukraine. However, evidence gathered from OSINT sources shows that: “At the end of November 2025, a Ukrainian Air Force An-124 transport plane landed at Ben Gurion Airport. The plane’s mission was to load military cargo. In full view and in front of the cameras at Tel Aviv airport, spare parts and decommissioned PAC-2 missiles for the Patriot air defense system were loaded onto the plane. Israel later admitted that it had also sent a Patriot defense system to Kiev in 2025.”
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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