President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran on the Strait of Hormuz: “Reach an agreement to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, or face “devastating attacks.” Meanwhile, the US president reiterated that “the United States has prevented Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.” On the toll in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said: “I will not allow Iran to impose taxes. If anyone wants to impose taxes, we will impose them. We have total control.”
Rumors, however, claim that the current agreement between Iran and Oman stipulates that the toll in the Strait will be paid to Iran on entry to the Iranian-controlled route, while the United States would have room for maneuver on the exit route, which would be under Omani control, with Iran having control over outgoing traffic. The source added that Tehran has already demonstrated flexibility by abandoning its initial demand for full control of maritime traffic in both directions and is unlikely to make further concessions.
On the military front, the United States has exhausted its stockpiles of long-range precision missiles in the conflict with Iran, according to Reuters. These are the ATACMS and PrSM systems. Sources indicate that the current situation undermines the United States’ capabilities in the event of conflicts with other countries. In particular, they point to a weakening of its deterrent potential against Russia and China.
Meanwhile, six Saudi-flagged oil tankers are changing course, avoiding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. According to ship tracking data, six Saudi-flagged oil tankers have changed course, away from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and heading toward the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, due to security threats and disruptions along the Bab el-Mandeb route. The transit time through this route will be at least 56 days.
In Israel, public speeches from political candidates continue, starting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “I believe President Trump’s calculation is that he doesn’t want to see the collapse of the global economy.” He continued: “There is still a radical Shiite axis, and a radical Sunni axis is also emerging. We need to form an alliance with the Arab countries. And I’ll tell you who else: the Muslims who want neither this nor that. You’ll be amazed at how many of them are turning to us. They’re turning to Israel. They’re turning to me.” “The Middle East is not what it used to be. Iran is not what it used to be. It has suffered very severe blows. It still has capabilities, but look at the last month: it hasn’t launched a single missile at us. Why hasn’t it attacked us? Because it knows we can launch attacks powerful enough to deter it. If it attacked us, it would receive a very severe response.” According to Netanyahu: “The vast majority of Iranians respect Israel.”
His words were echoed by those of former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett who during a visit to the Netiv HaAsara area in the Gaza Strip: “Qatar is a more dangerous enemy than Iran, because it pretends to want peace”. Bennett in his book “Path to Enrichment” writes: “Qatar, which financed the Hamas movement, has regained control, and Hamastan is re-emerging. Instead of determining our destiny.”
The Qatari mediator officially announces: “Hamas has implemented and respected what was requested and the international community must now put pressure on Israel to fulfill its obligations towards Gaza.” According to Palestinian accounts, Israel is ignoring President Trump’s proposed peace plan and escalating attacks on Gaza, threatening the US-backed ceasefire. Funerals for 112 victims removed from the rubble in Gaza buried yesterday. The Spokesman of the Qatari Foreign Ministry: “It is clear to the international community who is hindering the implementation of the Gaza agreement, and full responsibility falls on the Israeli side.”
Bezalel Smotrich is also on the election campaign and is using his position as Minister to attempt re-election. According to Yinon Magal, journalist and politician: “For the first time in history, Smotrich has allocated 113 million shekels for the development of historical sites in West Bank settlements.”
Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem says he is willing to meet Syrian officials and pursue common interests. He said that a stable Syria is beneficial to Lebanon, and a stable Lebanon is also beneficial to Syria, stressing that Israel is the common enemy of both nations.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was in Karbala and Basra yesterday for the Arbaeen celebrations and met with Governor Nasif al-Khattabi of Karbala and Governor Asaad al-Eidani of Basra. During the meeting, the importance of interregional cooperation to facilitate the movement of Arbaeen pilgrims was emphasized.
Iran will not immediately open the Strait of Hormuz after reaching an agreement with Oman on a safe route through the waters; this is not enough, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Crude oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz continue despite the lack of an agreement between the United States and Iran on its status. Approximately 3-5 million barrels transit through the maritime corridor daily, according to CNN, citing analysts from Marisks. Among the vessels allowed to circulate are Iraqi vessels.
Iran announced it was ready to strike three targets in Ukraine, but abandoned the plan after Kiev apologized. At the same time, Ukraine “must pay” for the attack on the Iranian ship, said senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei. Following the attack on the Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea, Volodymyr Zelenskyy officially confirmed the attack, but Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha later called the incident unintentional.
Tensions at the top of the Iranian government. Mohammad Baqer Kharazi, a relative of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated in an interview: “Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, intends to replace the head of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Baqer Zolkard, with his close military aide, Mohsen Rezaei. He also warned Iranian President Masoud Pazeshkian that any further resignations would be accepted. Following this warning, Pazeshkian and other senior officials backed down.”
Iranian President Masoud Pazeshkian has denied rumors circulating that he intends to resign, stating that he will remain in office and continue to perform his duties. In Iran, the president’s resignation is mostly a political pressure tool, not a real threat. Threatening to resign is intended to pressure the Supreme Leader or other branches of government to achieve desired policies. In essence, it’s a protest. This is the same behavior adopted by Javad Zarif (MB) when he felt excluded from the decision-making process, but his resignation was rejected by Khamenei at the time.
And now a look at the military scenario in the Middle East and West Asia, updated at 3:30 PM on August 4. Israeli warplane activity in the skies over central and northern Gaza.
The destruction of southern Lebanon continues, according to Israel’s Channel 12, based on analysis of satellite images: “In 19 Lebanese villages, 18,000 buildings have been destroyed, with the following percentages: Khiam 90%; Kfar Kila 87%; Aadaisseh 90%; Deir Mimas (Deir Siriane) 65%; Taybeh 65%; Houla 83%; Qatar 52%; Mays El Jabal 65%; Bella 99%; Mahabib 100%; Maroun El Ras 99%; Yaroun 76%; Bint Jbeil 54%; Tiri 57%; Aita al-Shaab 61%; Marwahin 100%; Naquora 87%; Qabrikha 13%. On the afternoon of August 4, an enemy Israeli drone dropped explosive containers on the Ali al Taher heights. Continued bombing Artillery fire against the outskirts of Al-Mansouri (Mashaa Al-Mansouri). The cemetery in the town of Hadathah was razed. Israeli army personnel are occupying residents’ homes in Tiri and Beit Yahoun and using generators for lighting. On August 4, Israeli demolitions continued in Deir Seryan. Several Israeli tanks, accompanied by a D9 bulldozer, advanced toward the outskirts of Hadathah-Ayta al-Jabal, where one of the tanks fired a shot at a nearby home.
The Israeli army seized 122 mm Grad rockets on the outskirts of Arsal, smuggled into Lebanon from Syrian territory; two citizens of the smuggling network were arrested. One Israeli soldier was injured in southern Lebanon two days ago.
On the night between August 3 and 4, Shahed-136 rockets struck Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan. and Sulaymaniyah
Drones launched from Iraq against Kuwait reported overnight, impacts reported
The Yemeni Ansar Allah announced that it had used a drone to target a facility described as a sensitive Saudi center at Najran Airport in southern Saudi Arabia. The group claimed the attack directly hit the target. Ansar Allah also announced that this attack was carried out in response to what it called “repeated Saudi drone attacks against the airspace of Saada and Hajjah provinces.” Najran Airport is the same location where, according to this report, Asim Munir (Pakistan Army Chief) deployed Pakistani forces for the “protection” of Saudi Arabia, as part of a defense agreement with the kingdom. According to this statement, over 10,000 Pakistani troops are present in various parts of Saudi Arabia, a significant number of which are in the region. which is stationed in Najran.
On August 4, an attack on a vessel was reported in the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman. Iran struck a merchant vessel 20 nautical miles off the coast of Oman, according to UKMT.
In the past 24 hours, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) at ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Escorted by the US Navy, the vessels continue to transit the Strait adjacent to Oman. According to the IRGC, another vessel found to be in violation of regulations was struck after ignoring warnings from the Iranian navy.
General Mohsen Rezai: “Following Iran’s attacks, CENTCOM’s Middle East Command Center initially relocated from Qatar to Jordan, and after our targeted strikes in Jordan, it was relocated to the occupied territories (Israel).” “For negotiations to begin, the United States must change its behavior. The implementation of our preconditions is a sign of a change in US behavior.”
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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