The Iran-United States negotiations are extremely difficult. The weekend was filled with announcements that were later denied. Meanwhile, the Iranian Ambassador to China: “China has presented a four-point initiative for peace and stability in the Middle East.” Neither the United States nor Iran wanted to present this plan publicly.
Not only is the US president in trouble with Israel, which at every step of the agreement reminds Trump that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.
On the evening of May 23, around 8:00 PM Italian time, US Vice President Vance rushed back to the White House, as did Hegseth. Trump convened a security meeting on Iran. And while Iran and the United States, through mediator Pakistan, are about to agree on a 60-day delay on nuclear matters, Trump makes a statement: “I will not make any deal that is not beneficial to Israel.” Trump announces that a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran has been “largely negotiated.” He adds that the final details of the agreement will be announced soon. Asim Munir was in Iran, and was received by Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni to finalize the agreement.
Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem reveals the reported details of the final draft of the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the United States: “End of the regional conflict on all fronts, including Lebanon; Unblocking of billions of dollars of Iranian assets; Lifting of the US naval blockade; Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under ‘Iranian supervision’; Withdrawal of most US forces from the Middle East; The two sides would then enter a 30-day period to resolve the remaining nuclear issues, with the possibility of extending negotiations if both sides so desire.”
Suddenly, everything goes haywire, and a phone call with the Persian Gulf countries is postponed. The Iranian news agency Tasnim states: “Iran and the United States have disagreed on one or two points of a possible memorandum of understanding. Negotiations for a mutual agreement are ongoing, and due to what they say are obstacles created by the United States, the issue has not yet been resolved.” An Iranian source stated that Iran insists on asserting its rights to Hormuz and that this message has been conveyed to the Pakistani mediator. If the United States continues to create obstacles, an agreement will be impossible.
In the end, what appears to be a done deal is scrapped by the White House because “it does not yet provide for an agreement to end the war with Iran and believes it could take several days.” Trump: “My deal is the opposite of Obama’s and much better.” Marco Rubio: “We managed to enter Venezuela and remove highly enriched uranium. The Iranian system refused to even discuss it. This must change.”
Trump’s about-face on the Iran deal reveals how Netanyahu controls it in real time, said Mohammad Marandi, an Iranian academic from the Iran-US negotiations delegation. “Trump seemed to be behaving reasonably. But I think probably after talking to Netanyahu and after the neoconservatives and Zionists started applying pressure… he changed his mind again. He completely reversed his position,” Marandi said. “If that were true, no agreement would be possible,” he concluded.
Channel 12 reported that Tel Aviv is closely monitoring the draft agreement between the United States and Iran. Tel Aviv fears that Tehran could benefit from sanctions relief without resolving the nuclear issue. Israeli media sources reported that Netanyahu also called the leaders of the governing coalition parties for a meeting on the evening of May 23. Israeli politician Avigdor Lieberman: “Trump is subjecting the entire State of Israel to a humiliating experience with Netanyahu.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu admits it is difficult for him to influence Trump’s decisions on Iran, according to Reuters. One of the Israeli officials who participated in Netanyahu’s private conversations said the Israeli leader expressed concern about the memorandum of understanding with Iran, currently under discussion.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has asked Netanyahu to pursue the resumption of the war in Lebanon, Naharnet. “Drone strikes cannot be considered a new normal,” and urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take a tougher stance in his talks with Donald Trump. “It is time for the Prime Minister to slam his fist on Trump’s desk and tell him that we will return to war in Lebanon,” Ben-Gvir wrote on X. In his opinion, Israel should launch attacks against Lebanese energy infrastructure and then occupy the region and Deir El Zahrani, in the south of the country.
“Israel will not stop its attacks on Lebanon regardless of any agreement with Iran,” says former US envoy to Iran Robert Malley. “There is no plausible scenario in which Israel would agree to cease attacks on Lebanon, Gaza, or Yemen as part of an Iranian nuclear deal,” the former US envoy concluded.
Hezbollah announced it had received a message from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirming Tehran’s “unwavering” support for the Shiite militia. On May 24, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem commented on the US sanctions imposed against members of the terrorist organization’s parliamentary faction in his speech: “The latest US sanctions are aimed at applying pressure and reflect the inability to achieve their goals. If the United States increases the pressure further, it will have nothing left in Lebanon because it will destroy it before the eyes of its people.”
Naim Qassem continued: “We will remain on the ground and emerge victorious from this war. The enemy will leave our land defeated and without having achieved any of its objectives.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio commented on Qassem’s speech: “The United States strongly condemns Hezbollah’s reckless call for the overthrow of Lebanon’s democratically elected government.” “Hezbollah has ignored the Lebanese government’s calls for a ceasefire. Instead, it has continued to bomb Israeli positions and move activists and weapons into southern Lebanon. This is a campaign aimed at undermining the stability of the country to maintain its own power at the expense of the future of the Lebanese people.”
The conflict resolution mediation team was expanded over the weekend. Trump held a multinational conference call with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, Pakistan, and Turkey. The agenda included discussion of the draft agreement with Iran. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praised Trump’s “efforts toward a peace agreement” with Iran following a phone call involving the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates.
On May 25, an Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf arrived in Doha as part of the diplomatic negotiations underway in recent weeks to help end the war. The delegation will also hold talks with senior Qatari officials on aspects of the negotiations related to the end of the war. Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati also traveled to Qatar to discuss the release of frozen assets and as a member of the Economic Negotiations Committee.
Trump called on several countries to normalize relations with Israel if Washington and Tehran reach a peace agreement, according to Axios. Representatives from Qatar, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, which do not have diplomatic relations with Israel, were surprised by the president’s request, the portal reports. There was a moment of silence during the call, and Trump joked, asking if everyone was still on the line, one of the officials said. The signing of the Abraham Accords is expected to begin immediately in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The Pakistani Prime Minister, following the meetings in Doha, said: “Significant progress has been made in the negotiations between the United States and Iran, and things are moving in the right direction.”
The Iranian ambassador to France stated that the Islamic Republic and Oman are discussing the introduction of a permanent toll system for the Strait of Hormuz.
Thousands of Iranian citizens gathered on May 23 in Tehran’s Enghelab Square to express their unwavering support for the government and armed forces and demanded answers for the attack on the Minab school. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei expressed optimism about the agreement: “Iran and the United States are in the final stages of drafting a memorandum of understanding.” According to an Iranian diplomat, negotiators are currently discussing the end of the war and the American naval blockade, as well as issues related to the release of frozen Iranian assets.
“The Strait of Hormuz issue is not a matter for the United States,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baqaei clarified. “A mechanism should be established between us and Oman regarding the Strait, and we have had several meetings with our Omani counterparts on this issue.”
A senior Iranian official told Reuters: “We have not committed to transferring enriched uranium; the nuclear program is not included in the agreement at this stage. If the memorandum of understanding is approved by the Supreme National Security Council, it will be submitted to Mujtaba Khamenei for final approval.”
Baqaei, again on X, wrote ironically to Trump: “In the Roman mindset, Rome was the undisputed center of the world. Yet the Iranians shattered this illusion; when Marcus Julius Philippus (Philip the Arab) marched east against Persia, the campaign did not end with a Roman victory, but with a peace established according to Sassanid terms: the emperor had to compromise!”
Commander Mohsen Rezaee, Advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader, made harsher statements. “We have our finger on the trigger.” He also said: “If the enemy attacks the Strait of Hormuz, we will break the naval blockade and could withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). We are ready to intervene.”
And now a look at the military scenarios in the Middle East and Western Asia, updated at 3:30 PM on May 25. According to Israeli media: “A drone packed with explosives suddenly exploded inside a military base near the settlement of Shlomi, in the western Galilee.” The Israeli military says one soldier was killed and two others injured, one seriously, in a drone attack near the Lebanese border on Friday. According to the military, an explosive-launched drone launched from Lebanon struck Israeli forces around 2:20 PM, while a second drone later fell in the same area without causing any casualties.
Also on May 25, rescue helicopters transported Israeli soldiers from southern Lebanon to hospitals in Israel after an Israeli Merkava tank struck and set ablaze by Hezbollah rockets in southern Lebanon. Israeli media complained that “Hezbollah launched drones against our forces and border towns; one of them exploded in Metula, and we are investigating the incident.” A drone attack was recorded in Shomera. Alarm sirens sounded again in the settlement of Shomera, in the Western Galilee, amid fears of a third drone infiltration.
Moreover on May 25, Israeli media reported: “Two Israeli Air Force pilots died in a ‘plane crash’ in northern occupied Palestine. They participated in an attack against Iran.”
Hezbollah confirmed on May 22 that it had attacked the Iron Dome missile defense system at the Branitz air base in the northern territories using Ababil drones. On the same day, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for an attack on an Israeli army communications vehicle in a surprise attack near the Masgaf base. Over the weekend, Hezbollah also targeted an Israeli army Merkava tank in a surprise attack in the southern Lebanese town of Markaba.
Since March 2, there have been 3,151 deaths and 9,571 injuries in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. Lebanese accounts complain that the IDF is deliberately targeting paramedics as they attempt to recover the wounded. Since May 24, the IDF has been conducting large-scale and unusually powerful attacks across southern Lebanon. On the evening of May 24, the IDF issued an evacuation order for the towns of Mashghara, Qellaya, and Sohmor in the Bekaa District, as well as Deirah, al-Zharqiya, al-Sharqiya Doueir, Zedbine, Nabatieh al-Tahta, Arab Salim, and Kfarjoz in the Nabatieh District. They “ordered” residents to immediately leave their homes and move at least 1,000 meters away. This occurred as Israeli attacks continued in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, relentlessly and without warning, and as drone activity continued over the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and its southern suburbs. Air raids on the town of Nabatieh; a Hezbollah suicide drone exploded near an Israeli soldier, killing him.
Hezbollah has begun using drones equipped with thermal cameras to target Israeli forces in southern Lebanon. In addition to thermal surveillance capabilities, Hezbollah has significantly increased its use of kamikaze drones. On the evening of May 24, dozens of drone attacks were reported, many of them targeting “Israeli territory.” This indicates that Hezbollah has increased the distance these attacks travel from the border. On May 25, two IDF Merkavas were hit in the town of Debel; an Ababeel assault drone struck an Israeli artillery position in the town of Adaisseh. Israel conducted incursions into the Rashidieh camp in Tyre. In response, Hezbollah launched rockets from southern Lebanon toward Israeli troop concentrations.
Fighter aircraft activity reported in Iraq. According to initial reports from Iraq, several facilities belonging to the Iran-backed Hashd al-Shaabi militia were recently attacked in Salah al-Din province, in the northwest of the country. Three people were killed and many injured. Foreign sources suggest the attacks were carried out by a Persian Gulf country, with Saudi Arabia considered the most likely responsible. Published footage shows significant activity by American tankers over Iraq and the Persian Gulf at the time of the attack. Also on May 25, a US military transport plane took off from Tel Aviv and flew over the Samawah desert in Iraq for over 30 minutes.
Regarding Hormuz, according to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards: “In the past 24 hours, 33 vessels, including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels, have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after obtaining permission, in coordination with the Revolutionary Guards and under the protection of the Navy.” Furthermore, on May 24, an Israeli reconnaissance drone was shot down by Iranian air defense, IRIB reports. The drone was flying over Hormozgan province, which overlooks the Strait of Hormuz. The drone was being used for espionage and reconnaissance. On May 22, an Israeli Orbiter drone was shot down in southeastern Iran.
Mehr reports: “Air defense systems are being heard near Qeshm Island. Drones were spotted over Qeshm Island, which triggered the activation of air defense systems.”
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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