On Monday, August 17, the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States officially expires. And there is still no agreement on Hormuz, Iranian frozen assets, or the Lebanese issue. Indeed, the eighth round of talks between Israel and Lebanon has been suspended. The election campaign is in full swing in Israel. According to Asharq Al-Awsat: “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unwilling to make concessions or take significant steps ahead of the Israeli elections next October […] given the potentially uncertain outcome and the potential domestic repercussions if he decides to withdraw from some areas of southern Lebanon. Therefore, he is unable to risk a move that could backfire on him in the elections.”
Lebanese President Aoun met with the head of the Mechanism Committee, General Joseph Clairfield, in the presence of US Ambassador to Beirut, Michel Issa. While US Ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, stated that negotiations between the Lebanese authorities and the occupation forces are progressing very well, Israeli media revealed that Israel refused to expand the test areas and asked the Lebanese army to participate in the aggression against Hezbollah in the south.
After Netanyahu rejected the 15-point plan regarding Gaza, several diplomats and officials said it was becoming increasingly clear that the United States either lacks the leverage needed to reach an agreement in Gaza, or is unwilling to use it. They said this also raises concerns about American efforts to promote negotiations on other issues in the region.
After Saudi Arabia opposed Egypt’s accession to the joint defense agreement signed in Mecca last weekend with Turkey and Pakistan, Egypt’s Foreign Minister said: “The security of the Gulf states is an integral part of Egypt’s national security.”
Meanwhile, in Israel, there is no shortage of strong statements ahead of the new election: former Israeli intelligence chief at the Mossad, Yossi Cohen: “We have repeatedly visited the Fordow nuclear facility to understand its structure. Bombing this facility by the Americans is the realization of all my dreams. 60% enriched uranium is still far from creating a bomb.”
A former member of the Knesset is calling for the occupation flag to be raised over every mosque and in every classroom in the West Bank. Likud officials have announced that they may withdraw from the party after Monday’s primary elections if they fail to secure positions that would allow them to enter the Knesset, and that in that case they would merge with other parties or create a new party structure. The financing units belonging to these members could also be removed from the Likud quota, which could be significant for the party in financing its election campaign. Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef to his students: Don’t vote for the Shas party, we must overthrow the right-wing bloc.
There are also rumors of an earthquake within the Mossad; an internal struggle among senior security officials following the failure of the plan to overthrow the regime in Iran.
Smotrich: “This morning, the demolition of 26 Palestinian buildings began in the Ganem and Kadim area, in the northern West Bank, in preparation for the resumption of settlements in the area.”
Arrests of Shiites continue in Bahrain: “The Authority’s plan in Bahrain is to definitively tame Hussein’s doctrine.” Sheikh Jaafar Al-Amjadi was arrested on August 11 in a purge against Shiites.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced in a tweet on the social network X that the United States, in collaboration with its allies in the Persian Gulf region, has restored oil transit to pre-war levels. He announced that 9 million barrels per day are being transported through the Strait of Hormuz and up to 7 million barrels through onshore pipelines. He acknowledged that 20 million barrels of oil left the region on Sunday alone, a quantity higher than the pre-war average. These statements are consistent with observations of Saudi Arabia’s massive oil tanker fleet in recent days.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said the United States must change its behavior and accept Iran’s conditions, otherwise the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. According to NBC, “Iran is strengthening the influence of hardline figures in decision-making centers, especially in the security and defense sectors, which suggests Tehran is preparing for the possibility of continued escalation and confrontation, rather than offering quick concessions.” He also said, “Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Indonesia have a responsibility to take steps toward achieving Islamic world unity.”
Pakistan’s Defense Minister told Bloomberg: “We are very close to concluding a peace agreement between the United States and Iran. There are increasingly clear signs that an agreement is imminent.” Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: “The Pakistani Interior Minister’s visit to Tehran is part of consultations with Iran for regional peace.” “Pakistan continues to work to facilitate dialogue between the parties involved in the negotiations and to bring them back to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.” This visit is also part of consultations with the Islamic Republic of Iran to strengthen bilateral relations.
And now a look at the military scenarios in the Middle East and West Asia, updated at 3:30 PM on August 12. Pakistani Foreign Minister: “Three of our citizens were killed on August 11 in an attack on a vessel in the Red Sea.”
Israeli Channel 14: “In Gaza on the evening of August 11, several Hamas fighters infiltrated the ‘yellow zone’ after being spotted by Israeli army observers. They stole war material and then returned to the ‘red zone’ without being attacked.” Last week, 65 crossings into the Yellow Zone were detected. Israeli officials say Hamas is deliberately pushing residents toward the Yellow Line near IDF forces (Ba2s Jenin)
Israeli attacks east of Gaza City. Israeli artillery attacks continue on Gaza and the Al-Bureij refugee camp. Palestinian media sources reported artillery attacks by the Israeli army on areas east of the Al-Zaytoun neighborhood in eastern Gaza City. The southern Khan Yunis area was hit.
Israeli incursions into the West Bank continue: several Palestinian workers were arrested during the assault on the village of Barta’a, southwest of Jenin. Israel is carrying out demolitions at the entrance to the village of Aaba, east of Jenin. The Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron has been closed, preventing Muslim worshippers and visitors from reaching it, to allow settlers to enter under the pretext of Jewish holidays.
Israeli forces stormed the Deir Sharaf checkpoint towards Beit Iba. Homes in Al-Ma’sara, south of Bethlehem, were destroyed. Settlers are carrying out acts of sabotage on the roads near residents’ homes in the village of Qusra, southeast of Nablus. Israeli forces arrest three citizens, including a journalist, Muhammad Awad, in Ramallah and Al-Bireh; arrests and homes searched in the city of Al-Bireh. Israeli forces attack Balata camp. An infantry force is deployed near Harat al-Qura’an and the Old Cemetery (Nablus Gheir).
Following the failure of talks in Rome and pending the next round of talks, Israel continues its bombing of Lebanon. Artillery bombardments are conducted on the cities of Tallousseh and Bani Hayann, in conjunction with a machine-gun clearing operation. Continued artillery bombardment against the Ali al-Taher heights, firing white phosphorus. Israeli forces fire on the outskirts of the city of Beit Yahoun. Enemy artillery bombardment against Wadi al-Hujeir. Israeli forces fire near the city of al-Qantara. Machine gun fire in the direction of al-Mansouri city. A hostile drone flies over the southern suburbs of Beirut and the capital, Beirut, for the third consecutive day. Bombings in the valley of Toulin city on Wadi al-Saluqi road.
Israeli army bombings in the town of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah hit a school, and homes were deliberately burned in the town of Hadata. According to the Israeli newspaper Maariv – Avi Ashkenazi: “The Israeli army is building several defense lines along the front, fearing attempts by Hezbollah, which still maintains a significant military presence in Lebanon.”
Local sources from Daraa: “An Israeli patrol infiltrated the village of Ma’ariya, in the Yarmouk Basin area, in the western countryside of Daraa. 12 violations committed by enemy Israeli forces in the governorates of Quneitra and Daraa in the last 24 hours. The IDF infiltrated and searched homes in the countryside of Daraa and Quneitra.
Large fire in Erbil; the cause of the incident is unknown. A headquarters belonging to Kurdish separatists in the Erbil governorate, northern Iraq, was targeted by drones at dawn on August 12. Four drones struck Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan. Al Jazeera reported in an urgent news report that four drones struck Erbil province in Iraq.
Ibrahim Al-Akwa, an Ansarallah/Houthi commander, was killed following clashes with Yemeni forces of the recognized government, supported by Saudi Arabia, on the Marib front. Ansar Allah in Yemen launched drone strikes against Saudi militia sites in the port of Mocha at dawn on August 12.
General Naqdi, Senior Advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps: “Whenever the situation requires and the order is given, we must be able to conduct operations in enemy territory, in enemy lands, and to carry out operations far from our own territory. These are the hallmarks of an offensive doctrine that must be established. In other words, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is now tasked with building this operational readiness and developing the ability to implement it at the appropriate time. We produce ballistic missiles at a rate greater than the rate at which they are launched and we supply them to the Islamic Republic’s fighters. Even in the field of drones, our production capacity far exceeds the rate at which they are launched. Even if the war were to last for years, our ballistic missiles would continue to rain down on the enemy.”
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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