Switzerland is hosting Iranian and US negotiators in Geneva today, with Oman as mediator. Iran’s Foreign Minister left on the afternoon of the 15th ahead of the second round of talks with the United States.
On February 16th, the head of the Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, met with the Iranian Foreign Minister in Geneva. According to Iranian accounts: “With this meeting, the nuclear talks process has begun its second round. In this round, economic, legal, and technical experts are accompanying the Iranian delegation, emphasizing that Iran’s approach to these negotiations is “results-oriented” (the issue of sanctions lifting is inseparable from the negotiations). Foreign Ministry spokesman Baqaei, however, stated: “The issue of sanctions lifting is an inseparable issue for us. Technical experts are also present in this round of negotiations.”
Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Larijani: “We are negotiating with America, but Israel is interfering to ruin everything.” “Israel is playing the role of an adventurer in the region; it has plans not only for Iran, but also for Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Regional policymakers must understand that the problem is not Iran, but Israel. If the Americans threaten us, they will be repelled.” Iran is fully prepared, but it is not seeking war. If it is forced upon us, we will respond. Given past experience, I doubt the enemy will seek war again, but we are prepared for any scenario.”
Donald Trump has already threatened churches: “The negotiations with Iran will be successful. If not, it will be a bad day for them.” According to CBS, Trump would support the attack planned by Israel. Senior Trump administration officials told the New York Times that President Trump has not yet decided whether to attack Iran. The US president said that regime change in Iran: “It seems like the best thing that could have happened.”
And Trump also commented on the nomination of the Iraqi prime minister: “We are evaluating the possibility of a prime minister for Iraq. We have some ideas about it.”
Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State: “Trump has said he is available to meet with the leader of the Iranian Revolution if he wishes.” “We are working to reach an agreement with Iran, and the next meetings will show whether progress can be made.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “We are giving Trump’s plan a chance. He said you can choose the easy way or the hard way. We must ensure the disarmament of Hamas, including the AK-47s they have, and the destruction of the tunnels. We have destroyed 150 kilometers of tunnels out of 500.” Regarding the agreement with Iran, Tehran must: “remove all uranium and dismantle all enrichment facilities, limit the range of missiles to 300 kilometers to prevent them from reaching Israel, and dismantle the ‘axis of terror’.”
The Hebrew newspaper Yediot Ahronot, quoting an Israeli intelligence official, said: “Al-Sinwar embarked on the path of normalization with Saudi Arabia on October 7, undermined the concept of security in ‘Israel,’ and brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront.” Before October 7, Israel and Saudi Arabia were moving toward normalizing diplomatic relations (the Abraham Accords).
And now a look at the military scenarios in the Middle East and West Asia. On February 13, a US Boeing C-17A military transport aircraft was en route to Iran. New satellite images of the Sheikh Isa air base in Bahrain, used by the US military, show the deployment of Patriot air defense systems and F-16 fighter jets.
Warships from the US, Russian, and Chinese navies have been present in the Middle East since February 12.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid stated that in the event of a US attack, they would side with Iran. He noted that the Taliban are ready to provide “all possible support in the fight against the invasion, including military assistance.” Two years ago, Iran, Syria, and Iraq, supported by the Houthis via Yemen, agreed to a possible ground war against Israel and the first joint jihad between Shiites and Sunnis. After the fall of Assad, this process was halted, and now the Taliban and Iran are forming an alliance against the impending major “crusade” supported by the United States and Israel.
On February 14, a Russian Air Force transport plane has arrived in Tehran. The transfer of China’s YLC-8B radar to Iran could reshape West Asia’s air power and end the dominance of stealth defense in Asia. Iranian accounts write: “The alleged deployment of China’s YLC-8B long-range anti-stealth radar in Iran signals a strategic shift in West Asia’s air defense architecture, directly challenging US and Israeli reliance on fifth-generation stealth aircraft, reshaping the dynamics of regional deterrence.”
Iranian Border Guard forces disrupted a smuggling operation involving a shipment of heavy weapons into the country, arresting the transporters. On February 16, Iran conducted the “Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz” exercise, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy under the supervision of Major General Mohammad Pakpour. “The exercise focuses on operational readiness, maritime security planning, and rapid response to potential threats, strengthening stability in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.” The Strait of Hormuz has been temporarily closed.
The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that between February 13 and 12, 10 airstrikes were carried out against over 30 ISIS targets in Syria. The Syrian army announced the capture of the U.S. base in Al-Shaddadi, eastern Syria, following the departure of American troops.
The Ministry of International Legal Cooperation in Iraq reports that a total of 5,704 prisoners from 61 countries have been transferred from Syria to Iraq. Of these, 467 are Iraqis, 3,543 are Syrians, 710 are Arabs from other countries, and 983 are foreigners. The foreigners come from, among other countries, Western Europe, Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Australia, Canada, the United States, South Africa, and New Zealand. A prisoner is missing; his whereabouts are unclear. The Iraqi army announced it had test-fired missiles from a Chinese CH-5 drone at Al Asad Air Base following the withdrawal of US troops.
The number of flights by US C-17 and C-5 military transport aircraft, operated by the US Air Force, from the United States to West Asia has reached 152 in just a few weeks. Among these, three more flights arrived in Jordan, one in Kuwait, and one in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, two E/A-18G Growler aircraft and six F-35A (tail code “VT”) departed Spain for Jordan. Reuters news agency reports that the United States is preparing for “sustained operations against Iran for several weeks.” This volume of flights could increase significantly, including movements from US Army and Air Force bases, as well as flights intended to support the deployment of US naval forces.
On February 14, it was learned that the 41 people accused of espionage in Lebanon are now on trial. Judicial sources say the suspects were identified and arrested for providing sensitive security information to the Israelis during and after the war, including details that helped identify military targets.
Four people were killed in an Israeli raid on a car in the Majdal Anjar area of eastern Lebanon. The Israeli army claims to have targeted members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). A vehicle was targeted by Israel in Hanin, southern Lebanon. The driver of the bus carrying the students was killed.
The Lebanese army is strengthening its deployment by establishing four checkpoints in the southern town of Kfarkla. It has established a new positioning point south of Khalat Al-Muhafer, on the outskirts of the southern town of Adaisah. The army’s decision followed an increase in infiltration and bombing operations in the southern city of Kfarkla since the beginning of the year. Israeli fighter jets targeted Wadi Barghaz, Houmine Fouqa, and the heights of the Al-Tuffah region in southern Lebanon.
On January 15, IDF Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir “strongly condemned” the attack on two female soldiers in the ultra-Orthodox city of Bnei Brak. In the statement, Zamir said he considered the incident “very serious” and “strongly condemns the attack on IDF soldiers on military duty” in the city. “Any harm caused to IDF soldiers by Israeli civilians constitutes a serious violation of the red line, and decisive action must be taken against the attackers,” the statement read. Zamir added that he “expects the attackers to be held accountable.”
On February 16, a unit specialized in dismantling explosives is heading to Benjamin Netanyahu’s office following the arrival of a suspicious envelope. Channel 15 reports: “CIA agents were active in the Iranian uprisings alongside the rioters!”
The Imam of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, Sheikh Akrama Sabri, criticizes the decision: “Israel has decided to ban dozens of young people from the mosque during the month of Ramadan and to prevent worshippers from the West Bank from accessing any facilities.”
Clashes on February 13 between resistance security forces and Israeli collaborators in the Al-Zaytoun neighborhood, with collaborators killed and injured, prompted Israeli patrols to intervene and shell the area.
The Resistance Security “Deterrent” Force comments on the attack on Israeli-hired mercenaries: “As part of the operation to track down and dismantle collaborationist gangs, the Deterrent Force thwarted a sabotage attempt by collaborationist gangs in the last few hours. The Deterrent Force managed to lure out a group of collaborationist gangs and effectively encircle them. However, the intervention of the occupation forces provided cover for the withdrawal of this collaborationist group.”
At least eight people were killed in an Israeli drone strike against a group of Palestinians and a tent housing displaced persons west of the Fallujah area, in the northern Gaza Strip.
The Israeli army demolished a residential neighborhood east of Khan Yunis. Several airstrikes were recorded on Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip; It completely destroyed the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) compound in East Jerusalem. Israeli artillery shelled the eastern part of the Al-Tuffah neighborhood in the eastern Gaza Strip.
Two people were killed in Tubas, West Bank, by Palestinian authorities.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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