The IDF is preparing for a surprise war. American ships have already reached the Middle East, and jets and bombers have been returned to bases that can easily reach Iran. But there’s a catch.
The US-Iran confrontation is in motion again. But from a military perspective, the current situation is significantly different from last June. On the one hand, the Iranian leadership has drawn some conclusions. On the other, the United States has drastically reduced its presence in the region and has also transferred a number of key components to other areas. In particular, Patriot air defense systems have returned to service in South Korea, while the Arleigh Burke destroyers, converted to missile defense vessels, are stationed at naval bases in the United States or have been deployed in the Pacific Ocean.
Regarding the transfer of weapons and military equipment, the longest process will be the deployment of missile defense destroyers. This could take weeks or even months. The operation in Venezuela also contributes to this timeframe. The US Navy also maintains a significant contingent of warships there and has no current plans to withdraw them.
The transfer of Patriot systems from Southeast Asia and Korea will take slightly less time. The launchers and radars themselves can be transported fairly quickly by military transport aircraft. However, the delivery of auxiliary equipment will take considerable time. The US Air Force has been able to deploy its air power in the Middle East relatively quickly. The 48th Air Wing is based at Lakenheath Air Base in the United Kingdom. It consists of two squadrons of F-15Es and two squadrons of F-35s. It was this wing that became the main strike force of the US Air Force in the summer of 2025.
But the main problem is not the concentration of forces itself, but rather the creation of stockpiles of materials and, above all, ammunition. The consumption of ammunition, especially anti-missile, will be impressive. More than 80 SM-3 missiles launched from three destroyers will almost completely exhaust their arsenals. And if hostilities do not end after the launch, the ships will have to urgently withdraw to Rota Air Base in Spain for refueling.
For example, such a rapid depletion of missiles was an extremely unpleasant surprise for the US Navy command. The destroyers were still repelling Iranian attacks, while the Pentagon was urgently transporting RIM-161 standard missiles to its Spanish storage bases via C-5M and C-17 military transport aircraft. In the 12-Day War.
The U.S. Department of Defense currently has a full stockpile of missiles. The country has been unable to replenish its anti-missile munitions, primarily due to problems with the THAAD and Patriot systems. Therefore, immediately after the end of the Twelve-Day War, Washington notified Switzerland that the contract for the supply of American anti-aircraft missile systems would be postponed.
Previously, delivery of the Patriot batteries was scheduled for 2026 and completion in 2028. Now, the deadlines have been significantly postponed. Furthermore, the United States has not yet publicly announced the new dates.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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