US President Donald Trump has declared the Strait of Hormuz clear of mines and under the direct control of the US Navy. However, the latest updates on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz indicate that it is under strict Iranian control. The latest data on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz indicate that the volume transiting this waterway remains well below pre-crisis levels.
According to data from Kpler and Commodity Context, the average outflow of crude oil and hydrocarbon liquids, which before the crisis stood at between 20 and 23 million barrels per day, has dropped dramatically following the restrictions imposed in the Strait, at times falling to around 2-5 million barrels per day. Although several surges in traffic have been recorded in recent months, with outflows reaching 12-16 million barrels per day on some days, this trend has not continued. End-of-month data show that outflows have stabilized again at a few million barrels per day.
And while the Strait of Hormuz is under Iranian control, Tehran has been keen to let the United States know that it still has plenty of ammunition to fire should the United States completely close its arms to Iran. An official Iranian military video showed Iran’s underground production facilities.
On the occasion of Defense Industry Day, the Armed Forces Chief of Staff and the acting Defense Minister visited one of the ministry’s underground sites. Although most of the images in the report are archived, two important points stand out: The first is the presence of a planetary mixer in the background. This device plays a crucial role in the production process of solid propellant for missiles (including ballistic, cruise, rocket, and anti-tank missiles). As the name suggests, the mixers’ job is to create a homogeneous, paste-like mixture of raw materials. Using planetary mixers in an underground environment is a complex process.
The second point, however, is the Almas missile production line. This fiber-optic-guided missile represents the latest generation of Iranian anti-tank weapons, which has proven particularly effective in the Lebanese theater of operations thanks to its “air-to-air” capability. The continued production of the Almas and its transfer to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Ansarallah in Yemen are particularly important. Furthermore, last year Israel claimed to have completely destroyed the production line for this missile with its air strikes.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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