Hezbollah has launched a major strategic review in the wake of its war with Israel, which includes the possibility of scaling back its role as an armed movement without completely disarming it.
The internal discussions, which have not yet been concluded and have not been previously disclosed, reflect the formidable pressure the Iran-backed Lebanese group has faced since a truce was reached in late November, Reuters reports.
Israeli forces continue to target areas that the group administers, alleging ceasefire violations, which Hezbollah denies. Hezbollah is also facing severe financial difficulties, U.S. demands to disarm and a reduction in its political clout since a new U.S.-backed government took office in February. The group’s woes have been compounded by profound shifts in the regional balance of power since Israel decimated its leadership, killed thousands of fighters and destroyed much of its arsenal last year.
Hezbollah’s Syrian ally Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in December, cutting off a key weapons supply line from Iran. Tehran is now emerging from its bitter war with Israel, raising questions about how much aid it can offer.
The group has held clandestine discussions about its next steps. Small committees have met in person or remotely to discuss issues including its leadership structure, political role, social and development efforts and weapons. Hezbollah has concluded that the arsenal it has amassed to prevent Israel from attacking Lebanon has become an obstacle.
Under Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed last year, Hezbollah has become a regional military player with tens of thousands of fighters, rockets and drones ready to strike Israel. It has also provided support to allies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Israel has come to view Hezbollah as a significant threat. When the group opened fire in solidarity with its Palestinian ally Hamas at the start of the Gaza war in 2023, Israel responded with air strikes in Lebanon that turned into a ground offensive. Hezbollah has since handed over several weapons depots in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese Armed Forces, as per last year’s truce, although Israel says it has struck military infrastructure still linked to the group.
Hezbollah is now considering handing over missiles and drones, seen as the main threat to Israel, on the condition that Israel withdraws from the south and stops its attacks. But the group will not surrender its entire arsenal: It intends to keep smaller weapons and anti-tank missiles, describing them as a means of resisting future attacks.
The Israeli military has said it will continue to operate along the northern border, in accordance with agreements between Israel and Lebanon, to eliminate any threats and protect Israeli citizens.
Under the terms of the US-French-brokered ceasefire, the Lebanese military was supposed to confiscate “all unauthorized weapons,” starting from the area south of the Litani River, closest to Israel.
The Lebanese government also wants Hezbollah to surrender the rest of its weapons, as it works to establish a state monopoly on weapons. Failure to do so could cause tensions with the group’s Lebanese rivals, who accuse Hezbollah of using its military might to impose its will in state affairs and repeatedly dragging Lebanon into conflict.
Hezbollah has placed the burden on the Lebanese government to secure reconstruction funding. But Foreign Minister Youssef Raji, a Hezbollah critic, has said there will be no aid from foreign donors until the state establishes an arms monopoly.
A State Department spokesman said in May that while Washington was committed to supporting sustainable reconstruction in Lebanon, “this cannot happen without Hezbollah laying down its weapons.”
Israel has also squeezed Hezbollah’s finances.
On June 25, the Israeli military said it had killed an Iranian official who oversaw annual transfers of hundreds of millions of dollars to armed groups in the region, as well as a man in southern Lebanon who ran a currency exchange that helped funnel some of those funds to Hezbollah.
Since February, Lebanon has blocked commercial flights between Beirut and Tehran, after the Israeli military accused Hezbollah of using civilian planes to import money from Iran and threatened to stop it.
Lebanese authorities have also tightened security at Beirut airport, making it harder for the group to smuggle funds in that way.
Such measures have fueled anger among Hezbollah supporters toward the administration led by President Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam, who was appointed prime minister against Hezbollah’s wishes.
Along with its Shiite ally, the Amal Movement, Hezbollah triumphed in May’s local elections, winning many unopposed seats. The group will seek to preserve its dominance in next year’s legislative elections.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
Follow our updates on Geopolitical Gleanings - Spigolature geopolitiche: https://t.me/agc_NW and on our blog The Gleanings of AGCNEWS - Le Spigolature di AGCNEWS: https://spigolatureagcnews.blogspot.com/
