Immediately after the 12-day US-Israeli bombing of Iran last June, the Israeli Mossad began secretly planning its next move against the Islamic Republic, this time with the goal of full-blown regime change, according to several former senior Israeli intelligence officials.
Many Israeli and American media outlets reported the story, with differing versions.
The war plan that emerged, these former Mossad and military intelligence officials stated, included Israeli and US air strikes, but also a proposed ground invasion, under Israeli and US air cover, by Iranian and Iraqi Kurdish forces armed, trained, and equipped by Israeli and US military advisers.
Furthermore, Mossad and CIA influence operations were planned to foment popular uprisings against the Tehran regime, which would have led to the collapse of the Islamic government and its replacement.
The Trump administration was reportedly supportive from the outset, despite initial reactions from CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who dismissed key parts of the regime change plan as “a farce.”
According to the US version, Israel nevertheless managed to convince Trump, dragging him into a war that not only failed to achieve its primary objectives but also created a new global economic reality: Iranian control of the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Channel 13 recently revealed new details about the plan, which was later aborted.
The plan called for Israeli attacks against Revolutionary Guard Corps positions along the Iran-Iraq border in Iranian Kurdistan.
The Mossad expected thousands of young Kurds to join the fighters, sparking a mass movement capable of reaching Tehran. Once this goal was achieved, it was believed that a mass protest movement with millions of demonstrators would overthrow the regime.
The Kurdish offensive was a key element of the plan, which also envisioned the rise to power of the ultraconservative former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
According to the New York Times, Israel had been engaged for several years in Ahmadinejad’s recruitment and reinstatement, a campaign that included a meeting with then-Mossad chief David Barnea on the sidelines of an academic conference in Hungary.
At the beginning of the war, Israel and the United States actually conducted heavy attacks against Iranian security forces in the northwest of the country in an attempt to facilitate the Kurdish advance. However, leaks to the media, pressure from Turkey, and the Kurds’ own mistrust prompted Washington to abandon the plan.
Previously classified details emerged from journalistic investigations. Although Ratcliffe and Israeli military intelligence (Aman) were deeply skeptical of the plan’s success, the arms operation had indeed been launched: the Mossad had sent weapons seized by the IDF from Hamas and Hezbollah in the preceding months to the Kurdish groups; The CIA reportedly provided training and light weapons to Kurdish volunteers to prepare for the ground offensive.
The invasion plan was abruptly scrapped by President Donald Trump due to a fateful chain of events.
Above all, Ahmadinejad’s betrayal and panic: on February 28, an Israeli raid aimed at eliminating his guards damaged his home, slightly injuring him. Frightened by the escalation and disillusioned with the dynamics on the ground, Ahmadinejad decided to abandon the operation and fled into hiding. He was presumed dead, only to be seen alive and well at Khamenei’s funeral (and later arrested).
Added to this was the release of operational details by some White House officials close to Vice President J.D. Vance, who allegedly intentionally leaked the plans to Ankara. At this point, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan immediately called Trump, threatening Turkish military intervention against the Kurds to prevent the emergence of an autonomous armed corridor along their borders. But even the Kurds themselves proved reluctant. Alerted by the leaks, the Tehran authorities sealed off their northwestern borders and bombed Kurdish bases in Iraq. Fearful of being used and then abandoned by the United States, as has already happened In Syria, several Kurdish factions have chosen not to use the weapons received across the Iranian border, greatly disappointing Washington.
Faced with the stalemate in Hormuz, the Trump Administration has reiterated that Washington’s primary objective remains the denuclearization of Iran, not regime change. The new Mossad chief, Roman Gofman, who took office in June following Barnea’s resignation, has coordinated recent meetings in Washington with the CIA to redefine contingency plans and covert operations against the Islamic Republic.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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