In recent days, the question on many people’s minds is: has Trump really decided not to attack Iran? Even if the ultimate answer lies solely in President Donald Trump’s head, everything suggests that the United States is stalling and that the attack has not been foiled. A bit like what happened with Maduro’s Venezuela. Meanwhile, the US aircraft carrier Lincoln is still en route to the Middle East.
Yuval Adamker, speaking on Channel 14 on January 15, stated: “Yesterday, the United States informed senior officials in Israel that an attack on Iran would take place at night. Consequently, Israel prepared for every scenario, both defensive and offensive. At dawn, when preparations were at their peak, a phone call came from the United States to Tel Aviv, literally saying: STOP, stop the process. In Israel, it is believed that Trump did not back down from his intention to attack Iran, but chose a moment deemed safer in terms of changing circumstances, which could be better for managing the operation.”
Uncertainty and concern are palpable in Israel, and precisely for this reason, IDF spokesperson Effie Defrin also took to the media stage to try to restore some calm.
In a video statement on January 16, Lieutenant General Defrin stated: “In recent weeks, and especially in recent days, we have been closely monitoring developments in the region. Accordingly, the Chief of Staff is conducting ongoing situational assessments with all relevant bodies. Our responsibility in the IDF is to manage the situation in a measured, professional, and responsible manner. We are operating at maximum readiness for a wide range of scenarios.”
And again: “In recent weeks, we have strengthened capabilities and increased readiness along all borders. As the Chief of Staff stated yesterday during his visit to the Airfield Defense Array, it is important for every Israeli citizen to know that the IDF is prepared and ready at all times, with a wide range of capabilities. We fully understand the sense of uncertainty and alarm that has spread in recent days, as public and media debate has focused on regional developments. This is natural and entirely understandable. At the same time, I ask you to rely exclusively on the IDF Spokesperson’s announcements and official channels, to act responsibly, and to refrain from spreading rumors that may cause concern among the public. I reiterate: there are no changes to the Home Front Command guidelines. Should any changes become necessary, we will update you in an orderly and clear manner.”
As if to say when the time comes, we will let you know; in the meantime, stay focused.
Meanwhile, in Iran, the damage is beginning to be counted: 250 mosques damaged; 20 husseiniya, a place of prayer other than a mosque, were damaged; hundreds of cars were set on fire in Tehran; two medical centers in Ilam and Rasht were destroyed; 182 ambulances were out of service; and 3 billion tomans ($21.5 million) in damage to municipal property in Tehran, including 800 billion tomans ($5.7 million) for firefighting vehicles. Furthermore: 317 bank branches were destroyed; 4,700 bank branches were damaged, ranging from 10 to 90 percent; 1,400 ATMs were damaged, of which 250 were completely destroyed; 2.1 trillion tomans ($15 million) in damage to banks; 364 large commercial establishments were damaged; 419 small commercial establishments in 30 provinces were damaged; and 3 public libraries were set on fire. One billion tomans ($7,000) in damage to the electricity sector; 265 educational centers and schools were damaged; eight historical and tourist sites were damaged; and four cinemas in three cities were damaged.
The damage has therefore severely strained Iran’s financial system, which is in the protesters’ sights due to inflation that is eroding any attempts at improvement in Iran, with inflation reaching 40%.
Late in the evening of January 15, the Israeli channel Kan stated: “In Israel, a decrease in the volume of protests in Iran is being monitored, due to the high level of repression and violence exercised by the Iranian regime. By using force against the uprising, the regime is managing to maintain a high level of fear, which could lead to the erosion of the momentum that has been built up so far. In Israel, it is estimated that several thousand people were killed during the protests, but it is difficult to determine a precise number.
And again, Channel 12, also on January 15, states: “The Israeli message to the United States after a series of consultations in Kirya: We support whatever decision you make, even if we pay the price, but we are not paying to launch an attack on Iran. Last night there was real drama and maximum alert, but the American attack did not take place. In Israel, they believe that the protests were repressed with an iron fist and have dramatically subsided. There is disagreement at the top of the Israeli hierarchy over the approach to take towards Iran. Deirmer is pushing for a tougher approach and is sending these messages to the Americans.
Meanwhile, the Iranians have broadcast images of the rioters killing demonstrators and officers online on all television channels in the Islamic Republic, explaining that they were Mossad agents. The rioters in the video conclude their operation by picking up shell casings from the floor. In any case, Iran has announced that old Soviet shells were used to attack and kill. An Iranian-Canadian was charged with terrorism and hanged. 800 accused in the riots remain in prison for now. Meanwhile, in the city of Isfahan, the Iranians have begun restoring nuclear sites, Copernicus images.
Amid all this chaos, the Israeli-backed candidate, the son of the deposed Shah, spoke at a press conference in Washington, arguing that in the event of the regime’s collapse and his inauguration, the program is: “immediate normalization with America, full recognition of Israel, and the burial of the Iranian nuclear program.” Reza Pahlavi, however, Aside from the support of Israel and Iranians in exile, he doesn’t have much traction at home.
In his press conference, Reza Pahlavi broadcast videos of dead bodies during recent protests and pro-monarchy Iranians calling for Trump’s help against the Iranian government. The Shah’s heir said at the press conference: “This is no longer simple repression. This is a foreign occupation wearing clerical garb. Just as Saddam Hussein drowned the swamps in blood and Bashar al-Assad turned barrel bombs on his own children, Ali Khamenei and his henchmen have committed mass crimes against the Iranian people and against all humanity.” “I will return to Iran. I am in a unique position to ensure a stable transition. This is not my opinion.” This is the verdict pronounced loud and clear by the people in the face of bullets. He demanded: “Protect the Iranian people by reducing the regime’s repressive capacity, including by targeting the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and its command and control infrastructure.”
Mossad Director David Barnea traveled to the United States on January 15 for talks focused on Iran, as protests continue and Washington weighs possible military action, Axios reports. Barnea met with Steve Witkoff, who has recently been in contact with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. In his contact, Araghchi suggested holding a meeting and restarting nuclear negotiations. Israeli officials fear that Tehran could use the resumption of talks to slow down and ease US pressure.
According to Israeli media, Iran’s internet blockade has left Israeli and US intelligence agencies “in chaos.” The former Israeli intelligence chief has He declared: “The Iranian regime is very strong.” This is to say that it’s not like attacking Hezbollah or Lebanon.
Despite Trump’s postponement, Israel is still on high alert due to tensions with Iran, and security discussions are ongoing between the political leadership and the military establishment.
Meanwhile, Moscow is trying to mediate between Iran and Israel. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, discussing developments in the Middle East and the situation in Iran. Putin emphasized the need to intensify political and diplomatic efforts to ensure regional stability and stated that Russia will continue mediation efforts and promote dialogue between all parties. Both leaders agreed to remain in contact at “various levels.”
Putin subsequently had a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the Kremlin stated.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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