#ISRAELIRANWAR. Chaos in the Likud elections. Clashes reported between US and Iranian ships in the Strait. Saudi Arabia prepares for war against the Houthis in Marib. Bab el-Mandeb at risk.

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Iran has released Iranian-American citizen Dana Curry, who was being held in Iran. Trump called it a “goodwill gesture.” Three other Americans remain in Iranian custody.

Donald Trump favors expanding the US military operation in Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal. Options being considered include the seizure of islands near the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on a facility allegedly used for secret nuclear activities. Attacks on the Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La/Pickaxe Mountain tunnel complex (where the US believes this facility is located) and intensified air strikes on targets in the country are being discussed, according to the newspaper’s sources.

And Trump again weighs in on his order to kill 168 Iranian students and teachers at the Minab school: “I don’t think anyone can ever say what happened there. It’s possible the images you have were generated with artificial intelligence. I don’t think a definitive report can be produced.”

Chaos erupted at the Likud party conference less than an hour before polls opened: a heated discussion erupted over the wording of the ballots and the manner in which the proposed internal rules of procedure should be presented. Likud officials claim that one of the ballots was misleading, attributing to Netanyahu explicit support for the candidacy of ministers and Knesset members in single-member constituencies, even though the formula he adopted stipulates that this is possible only with the support of a majority of the conference members. Meanwhile, a legal dispute is ongoing regarding the minutes of the Constitutional Committee and the affidavits, which, according to opponents, contradict the official election results. An urgent request has been made for the ballots to be corrected, or at least for a clear explanation to be posted at each polling station before the start of voting. If an immediate solution is not reached, opponents are considering requesting a postponement of the opening of the polls.

Yedioth Ahronoth reports that during a conference organized by the so-called “Temple Mount Administration,” ministers and Knesset members from the Likud party called for changing the status quo at the Al-Aqsa Mosque and barring Palestinians from accessing it, stating, “If Jews cannot freely ascend to pray there, then there is no reason why anyone should pray there.”

Abdel Rahman Shadid, leader of the Hamas movement, urged the Israeli population in the West Bank to mobilize, strengthen their presence, and be present in all villages and towns targeted by West Bank settlements, “to counter settler attacks and terrorism with every means possible, to thwart the plans of the occupation and its settler gangs, and to thwart the plan for annexation and displacement.” […]

He emphasized the need to strengthen the People’s Protection and Guard Committees in threatened areas, support targeted communities, and intensify activities at the national and field levels to strengthen citizens’ resolve and counter the occupation’s plans, according to Hamas website.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected President Trump’s call to withdraw Israeli troops from Syria and Lebanon. According to Al Jadeed TV, Israel will withdraw troops from six cities in southern Lebanon, and Lebanese Army units will be stationed in the area. Maariv reported: “The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has begun building a line of permanent posts in southern Lebanon.”

The head of the Union of Southern Periphery Municipalities, Muhammad Dargham, criticized, in an interview with Al-Akhbar, the way some ministries treat municipalities, noting that the Lebanese state appears absent from most initiatives.

Syrian security forces foil a shipment of 150 drones packed with explosives and missiles. A joint Iraqi-Syrian investigation has been opened. The Iraqi government officially sanctions Daesh and Hezbollah.

Sheikh Maher Hammoud, Head of the International Union of Resistance Scholars: “Bahraini scholars are influential in their society… Their arrest is consistent with the nature of the regime, which does not care about the country’s interests.” Commenting on Al-Wefaq’s statement revealing the torture inflicted on the scholars, Baqer Darwish, Head of the Bahrain Forum for Human Rights, said: “The King bears primary responsibility for these violations and the show trial, and this does not absolve the Prime Minister of his responsibilities. This statement mentions 20 types of violations suffered by the esteemed scholars, among the most serious of which are: threats of sexual violence, deprivation of medication, and denigration of Shiite beliefs, beatings, and forced signing of false confessions.” […] and this is the beginning of the height of sectarian persecution in Bahrain.”

Ansar Allah authorities announced that Sana’a International Airport has been repaired and is operational again, just two days after the attacks in Saudi Arabia. Reuters: “Iran and Ansar Allah agree to close Bab al-Mandab if the United States targets energy infrastructure.”

On July 16, the leader of the Ansar Allah movement, Sayyed Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, gave a speech at length, which examined Saudi Arabia’s culpability: “The Saudi regime used to guide the political line in the Islamic arena through conferences whose results were statements formulated with platitudes and a very cautious attitude, without any concrete position in support of Palestine. […] The Saudi position succeeded in bridling the nation from within, preventing it from adopting a concrete stance against Israel. […] Saudi Arabia’s destructive role transformed into concrete support for […] Israel and an attitude of adulation and complacency towards the United States. […] All Saudi and pro-Saudi media, from the battle for the Al-Aqsa flood until today, have been offensive towards the Palestinian people and their mujahideen.”

Iranian Parliament Speaker and head of the country’s negotiating team, Qalibaf, said: “The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) only makes sense if its provisions are valid and implemented. If Iran is not to benefit from the MoU, there is no reason to join such an agreement.” Deputy Head of the Environmental Protection Organization of Iran, Shina Ansari, said: “The government has developed a mechanism for collecting compensation costs for environmental damage caused by ships transiting Hormuz. The mechanism has been drafted as a regulation and will be submitted to the Shura Council for ratification after its review.”

And now a look at the ongoing military scenarios in the Middle East and Western Asia, updated at 4:00 PM on July 16. US Navy specialists attempted a covert attack on the mini-submarine refueling facility. Furthermore, reports are coming in that US Navy MH-60R/S helicopters are actively operating in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, US Navy “littoral” warships have also begun approaching the Strait of Hormuz.

At 9:30 PM on July 15, the US military reported a second wave of attacks in Iran. CENTCOM also claims to have forced two merchant ships attempting to bypass the blockade to change course. According to the Iranians, at least five passive air defense systems, including a 359 system, have been destroyed by the United States in this new wave of conflict.

New attacks on the night of July 16 against Jordan. Intense activity by US early warning aircraft in the skies above the Jordanian city of Aqaba. The Jordanians claim to have intercepted eight ballistic missiles launched by Iran. Despite this, a loud explosion was heard in Jordan around 3:00 a.m. on July 16 (Italian time).

Israel Army Radio reports: “Although Israel is not participating in the American attacks against Iran and is maintaining the truce in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip remains the main theater of operations for the Israeli army. In Gaza, the Israeli army is expanding its operations, launching attacks with increasing frequency in recent months.”

An airstrike in the northern Gaza Strip on the evening of July 15 killed two commanders of the elite Nuhba unit of the Palestinian group Hamas, according to the Israeli Ministry of Defense. On July 16, the IDF struck a jeep north of Khan Yunis, killing one person. The Gaza Ministry of Health reports that the death toll has risen to six following Israeli attacks on some areas of the Strip on July 16.

Local sources in Lebanon say that an Israeli “Mossad” cell infiltrated from Syria and carried out an assassination in northern Lebanon. The Israelis set fire to several homes and property on the outskirts of the town of Beit Yahoun, coinciding with artillery shelling on the outskirts of the town of Rashaf in the direction of Hadatha and another artillery shelling on the town of Talousa. Additionally, an IDF force infiltrated the outskirts of the town of Baraashit from the direction of Beit Yahoun, while enemy warplanes bombed the town of Nabatieh Fawqa. An IDF drone entered the airspace of Sarafand, Beirut, and surrounding areas at low altitude. A drone attack on Ali Al-Taher resulted in a fire.

The Israeli army found a body tied to a stretcher near a minefield near the village of Rab Tlatin, in southern Lebanon. The body was transferred to Israel and will be examined by police.

Donald Trump says he is “considering giving the green light to al-Sharaa to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon and finish the job for Israel.”

Large-scale Iranian attacks target Kurdish separatist positions in Iraq and the US base at Erbil International Airport. Sirens are blaring inside the US Embassy in Baghdad.

The Iraqi Ministry of Oil denied the port shutdown: “Oil loading operations from the southern ports continue and have not been interrupted.” “The oil company SOMO is still investigating the impact of a foreign object on one of the tankers, and once the investigation is concluded, we will communicate the results.”

The IRGC claimed to have struck a C-RAM radar system and a US troop concentration in Kuwait, claiming both targets were destroyed. Explosions also rang out in the early afternoon of July 16 over the Al-Qadsiyah region in Kuwait and the port area, along with the activation of the Patriot air defense system.

Iranian retaliatory strikes against Bahrain

In Yemen, a large convoy of the Fatherland Shield forces (Saudi Arabia) moved from the city of Al-Abr, in territory controlled by the Presidential Leadership Council of Yemen, towards the Marib region. Meanwhile, north of the Marib region, tribal forces on both sides of the line of contact—both supporters of Ansar Allah and the Presidential Leadership Council—have mobilized in the Al-Rayyan area of ​​Al-Jawf province over the past month. Al-Abr serves as the main Saudi logistics hub in eastern Yemen and is effectively controlled by Saudi personnel and Saudi military. A Saudi military base, the 37th Brigade base, is also located on the outskirts of the city. The size of this convoy and its movement from Al-Abr clearly indicate Saudi Arabia’s involvement, including the presence of Saudi military personnel escorting the convoy or coordinating its movements.

According to Reuters, shipping companies are increasingly avoiding the route recommended by the US military through the Strait of Hormuz, following recent Iranian attacks on merchant ships. Although Washington maintains that the strait remains open and that many ships continue to navigate it under US coordination, maritime security firms warn that there are no reliable guarantees of safe passage.

Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is currently calm, with two major oil tankers departing the channel bound for Iran: the Miran, subject to US sanctions during the war, loaded with Iraqi oil. The Norita oil tanker, subject to US sanctions since January 2026, arriving from the Assaluyeh gas terminal.

Kepler data: “Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely limited due to renewed US-Iranian escalation.” “Only 13 commercial vessels passed through Hormuz on July 15, while one vessel used the southern route near the Omani coast.”

Deputy Commander of the Revolutionary Guards for Political Affairs, Brigadier General Yadollah Javani, threatens: “Trump will take his dream of reopening Hormuz with military action to his grave.” “There is complete consensus among Iranian officials on the need to preserve this strategic waterway and impose its own regulations on it.” “We have the military capabilities to preserve and control this waterway, given the geopolitical position of the Gulf, Hormuz, and the Sea of ​​Oman.”

The Iranian military reported that seven of its soldiers were killed overnight in attacks by American forces. Kerch is completely without power after a drone attack, city administration head Ivan Koshel said.

The Shahid Baghaei 2 Children’s Hospital in Ahvaz was completely evacuated after American missiles hit the medical complex that includes the hospital on July 16. The hospital is now operational again after a six-hour outage.

Explosions erupted overnight in Bandar Abbas, Iran. Iranian air defense shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over Andimeshk, in Khuzestan province.

The IRGC claims to have completed the three phases of Operation Nasr 2 and to have successfully defended Bandar Abbas and Andimeshk. The army has also completed the ninth and tenth phases of Operation Sa’eqeh.

Iran released a video showing the sinking of the Luni ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The oil tanker Mombasa B was attacked off the coast of Musandam province in Oman; six crew members were injured, according to the Sultanate’s Maritime Security Center.

Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio 

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