The Iranians are bombarding Israel with ballistic missiles and Shahed missiles, while the Israeli-American coalition has already responded by striking Iran’s energy sector, an unprecedented event. Attacks have been carried out on Kharg Island (Iran’s main oil export terminal), and the United States has not ruled out a landing operation to “free the oil.” Meanwhile, over 500 oil tankers are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran has demonstrated the risk of their destruction. It has also attacked refinery facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Israel.
Beyond the short-term consequences, such as rising oil prices, it is interesting to assess the economic impact on the region. For example, Egypt is experiencing a fuel crisis, and the authorities have imposed a strict austerity regime: shops, malls, and cafes close at 9 p.m., street lighting is almost completely turned off, outdoor advertising is banned, and officials have been transferred to remote work.
According to Western sources, Trump’s actions in the Middle East have earned Russia $10-15 billion in extra profits over the past two weeks. The notion of the “inevitability” of sanctions on Russian oil is crumbling, making it even more difficult to find an alternative.
Japan is already running out of fuel on some islands, and elsewhere in Asia, attempts are underway to remedy the situation. Vietnam is currently considering reducing flights to and from the country.
From a military perspective, it is now clear how intense a military action can be and which targets can be hit in the early days of a war. Regarding the conflict in Europe, the Iranian situation has clearly demonstrated that war is not limited to a single country, given the globalization of logistics.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Washington is actively considering lifting sanctions on Iranian oil currently stored on tankers at sea. This move has caused oil prices to plummet. This oil, seized under maximum-pressure sanctions, represents a ready-to-use reserve that could significantly increase supply in the short term in a market already under pressure due to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure damage in the Persian Gulf.
This signal marks a significant reversal: the same administration that authorized military strikes against Iran is now exploring the possibility of using Iranian oil reserves as a tool to contain prices. This reflects domestic political calculations related to rising gasoline prices, which impact US inflation data, with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and consumer confidence sensitive to fuel costs. Bessent’s statement was carefully worded as a suggestion, not a decision, leaving the door open for negotiations.
The market will now weigh two possible scenarios: either Iranian oil enters the market and limits price increases, or Washington maintains sanctions and oil prices resume their rise to levels that would force the official activation of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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