For Israel, the Lebanese issue is far from over. Between January 29 and 30, the following IDF operations were recorded against Hezbollah, according to Israel, and against civilians according to Lebanese sources close to Hezbollah. An Israeli Merkava tank and two military vehicles advanced eastward, toward the town of Yaroun, positioned themselves near a house and, after clearing it, destroyed it.
An Israeli warplane dropped a stun grenade near the “Chalets” area in the western neighborhood of Khiam. IDF forces fired flares at Mount Kahil, between the towns of Aitaroun and Maroun al-Ras in southern Lebanon. An Israeli drone flew low over Beirut and its suburbs. An Israeli drone crashed in the town of Rabaa Thalathin. Machine gun attacks from the Al-Malikiyah area targeted the outskirts of the towns of Blida and Aitaroun. Machine gun attacks targeted the outskirts of the town of Naqoura.
These attacks are routine in a debt-ridden Lebanon unable to restore normalcy to its citizens. Teachers are currently protesting for a pay raise, but these are just the latest signs of a society no longer able to cope with the situation created by US pressure and Israeli attacks against Hezbollah.
War veterans tired of seeing their citizens attacked by the police are also taking the stand in support of the citizens.
And to return to the Israel-Lebanon issue. The US-backed Netanyahu government has long been calling for UNIFIL forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon and replace them with Israeli units, who have already taken up positions in five locations south of the Litani River to control Lebanese territory.
Meanwhile, the Germans, French, Italians, and Spanish appear to be opposing Israel’s expansionist plans south of the Litani River, declaring they will not leave with UNIFIL. Local sources report that Germany is building a huge center on the coast in Naqoura.
An Israeli military source told Al-Hadath: “Hezbollah is working to rebuild various systems within villages in southern Lebanon.” “Hezbollah is preparing for a future military confrontation.” “There are covert Hezbollah activities on the front lines.” “Hezbollah is trying to maintain its weapons until the army imposes its control.”
The Alma Institute for Israeli Research agrees: “Our assessment: Hezbollah’s current pace of military reconstruction exceeds the scope of Israeli countermeasures. Hezbollah is estimated to possess up to 25,000 rockets and missiles, with a significant daily launch capacity, a growing drone fleet, and a manpower of tens of thousands of fighters. The Radwan unit, despite the damage it sustained, is undergoing repairs and continues to serve as the organization’s primary offensive arm.”
And again: “Meanwhile, Hezbollah is facing leadership erosion and challenges, but maintains a strategic position north of the Litani River and in the Bekaa Valley, including tunnel networks and launch infrastructure. In its current situation, Hezbollah is practically in a position to join the regional conflict, pending a strategic decision by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran.”
In reality, however, Hezbollah, which signed a peace agreement with Israel exhausted in manpower and weapons, does not appear to be showing these sharp edges. The “Beirut-Tehran” route, which once delivered weapons directly to Hezbollah, appears to have been cut off in several places, such as Syria.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese army is fulfilling its mandate to de-weapon Hezbollah and what remains of the Islamic resistance. A Fatah source told Al-Jadeed: “The Lebanese army will enter the Beddawi camp in the coming days to take control of the factional checkpoints inside the camp, placing them under its supervision. This is likely to happen within the next two days.” What is happening in Beddawi has happened in all Fatah camps, and no one has put up resistance.
The fact is that the weapons seized by the Lebanese army are not left in the hands of the military but are retained by the United States and Israel. This does not indicate any particular trust in the Lebanese army, which is instead trying to find a balance within the complex local tribal armed system.
Moreover, there are espionage problems. Lebanon feels under observation. Surveillance cameras are often found hidden in rocks in Lebanese territory of Israeli origin. For example, on January 27, a suspect was “arrested for collaborating with the enemy in the town of Ansar, in southern Lebanon.” The Internal Security Forces’ Information Branch reported the arrest, “arresting a Lebanese citizen (A.M.) in the town of Ansar, in southern Lebanon, on charges of communicating and collaborating with the Israeli enemy.”
The Internal Security Forces’ statement reads: “The Information Branch’s strike force raided his home on Tuesday, January 27, 2026, and arrested him. They also raided his family’s home and confiscated electronic devices and personal belongings before taking him to the Internal Security Forces Headquarters. According to the station’s information, the detainee works in real estate and had studied in Italy before returning to Lebanon some time ago.” The suspect is under investigation, and security will determine whether he is involved.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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