Recent developments show that the escalation of Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, combined with the ineffectiveness of changing Lebanon’s level of representation on the ceasefire committee, has further complicated the political and security landscape. At the same time, Washington is increasing pressure on the Lebanese Army, with Congress currently considering a proposal to reconsider military assistance to the country. The United States has also suspended the Lebanese Army Commander’s visit to Washington, making any meeting with Joseph Aoun conditional.
These pressures are described as part of Washington’s strategy to reshape Lebanon’s security equation and strengthen the army’s role as an alternative to Hezbollah. However, structural and political obstacles are blocking this goal, as Hezbollah’s entrenched position in Lebanon reduces the likelihood of altering the army’s trajectory. In this context, the United States’ conditional approach to military aid is not merely a security measure, but part of a broader effort to contain Hezbollah and reshape Lebanon’s security order, a strategy whose implementation path remains uncertain.
The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth quoted an Israeli security official in an article stating: “We do not believe Hezbollah will give up its weapons through an agreement, and we are heading for an escalation. We will decide the timing of this escalation based on our security interests.”
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, concerns are growing about Israeli territorial expansion in southern Lebanon. Al-Anbaa Electronic’s editor-in-chief, Salah Taki El-Din, writes: “The Lebanese government is supposed to have given Ambassador Simon Karam the decision to appoint him and establish the margins for maneuver. But we don’t know whether this decision was made by the government! No southerner will agree to abandon their land or their homes. The economic zone project in southern Lebanon is similar to the idea of the ‘Gaza Riviera.’ ‘Greater Israel’ will practically be an ‘economic’ or ‘political’ Israel. It cannot occupy this entire region, even if the entire US fleet were with it, because the people would rebel! Lebanon is not an ‘easy prey’; no one can annex it to Syria or divide it! What the United States wants is to restore American influence in the Middle East region without competitors! – The restoration of relations between Lebanon and Syria must begin with the issue of border demarcation and then that of prisoners. Regarding the provocative marches that took over the streets of Lebanon on December 8: it was possible that At some point, a conflict might break out, something Lebanon has tried to avoid after the events on the Syrian coast. Israelis are deeply afraid of Hezbollah. This fear isn’t limited to weapons, but also extends to the resistance movement, which cannot abandon its deeply rooted doctrine that “Israel is an enemy.“
Hussein Fadlallah, a Hezbollah official in Beirut, told the press: “Some in Lebanon think that Israeli aggression threatens only the population of the South, while in reality it confirms that the Israeli threat extends beyond the South, reaching all of Lebanon and the entire region, especially since “Israel” publicly announced its expansion plans. Some, however, approach it as if this danger were limited only to the South, even though the South has its own people, its own men, its own guardians, and its own resistance fighters who will not allow this fire to continue surrounding it.”
And the Hezbollah official continued: “The price of surrender and betrayal is harder and more severe than all the sacrifices made, and we ask ourselves: why do they want the resistance’s weapons when they say it has weakened, and why do they want these weapons when they say they are no longer effective and cannot confront Israel, and why is the entire world launching a campaign to disarm the resistance and break its will? Some parties in Lebanon must stop justifying aggression against our country and throwing stones at their own people. We remind those who hope to negotiate with the enemy that all negotiations with it have benefited it and have not saved the peoples who negotiated with it, and this West Bank and others are models before us.”
The United States has said it does not believe in the Greater Israel conspiracy. US envoy Tom Barrack said he “does not believe in the ‘Greater Israel conspiracy’”.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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