According to Alexander Svarants of the New Eastern Outlook, the military conflict in the Gaza Strip has not only resumed forcefully after a humanitarian pause, but is also acquiring new content.
His analysis reads: “The next innovation in IDF combat operations in the Gaza Strip is a change in the geography of attacks. In particular, if previously the epicenter of the Israeli army’s attacks was in the northern regions of the Palestinian enclave, now the Israeli army is conducting ground attacks on all areas of Gaza (including the north, south and east )”. The head of the IDF press service, Daniel Hagari, said that the Israeli army is expanding its ground offensive in all areas of Gaza. Also the Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, General Herzi Halevi, highlighted the clashes in the southern Gaza Strip.
And he continues: “The third innovation in the military clash between Israel and Hamas can be considered the statement of the head of the Shin Bet General Security Service of Israel, Ronen Bara, on the willingness of the Israeli secret services to destroy Hamas leaders and activists around the world, including in Lebanon, Qatar and Turkey. It should be assumed that the Keshet special unit within the Mossad (which, by the way, was previously headed by the current head of Israeli intelligence, David Barnea), whose operational tasks include infiltration and monitoring of the objectives, I have already received new instructions on the objects of interest of the intelligence and places their positions”.
Turkish President Recep Erdogan, in his interview with the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, accused Israel of cruelty towards Palestinian civilians in Gaza, and the West of hypocrisy. In particular, the Turkish leader said before his visit to Athens: “Is telling the people of Gaza to ‘go south’ and dropping bombs on anyone heading in that direction the attitude adopted by the West?” “It turns out that the West, by supporting the actions of the Israeli side in the Gaza Strip, violates its own fundamental values related to the violation of human rights.”
But it is precisely the Shin Bet statement that worries Turkey. Erdogan and the Turkish intelligence services are concerned not so much about the Israelis’ ability to successfully carry out retaliatory special operations, but rather about the possible transformation of Turkish territory into the target of such secret operations.
According to the political science professor: “The Turkish MIT believes that the public statement by the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bara, on threats to eliminate Hamas leaders abroad is an element of a psychological operation by the Israeli secret services, aimed to a sort of rehabilitation in front of the public. Although, of course, the heads and employees of the special services, as a rule, do not talk about their immediate and long-term plans and do not warn their targets of interest about the subversive operations planned against them. However, intelligence agencies act according to their principles and decisions. This was the case with Palestinian terrorist actions to kill Israeli athletes at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, and the “Mitzvah Elohim” (“Wrath of the Gods”) operation to identify and eliminate terrorists was not carried out”.
Turkey is concerned about possible similar operations by Israeli intelligence services on its territory. In the initial period of this Israeli-Palestinian war, the media noted that, in accordance with the Mossad’s warning about planning actions to destroy the Hamas leaders remaining in Turkey, representatives of the Turkish MIT suggested that Ismail Haniyeh and others Hamas leaders left the territory of their countries to avoid undesirable consequences. As a result, I. Haniya and his colleagues then moved to Qatar.
In the initial period of the military conflict, President Erdogan expected to assume a position of mediator and a neutral role of peacemaker. However, 20 days later, Turkey changed its approach: it began to support Hamas, condemn the actions of the IDF and Prime Minister B. Netanyahu in the Gaza Strip, and call the West complicit with Israel. Ankara declared its plan for a definitive political solution to the Palestinian issue by recognizing the independence of Palestine within the 1967 borders with its capital in East Jerusalem and granting Turkey an international mandate with the right to guarantor of Palestine’s security.
According to Svarants, this could be one of the reasons why Turkey asked the Hamas leader to leave. If Turkey suffered attacks in Ankara it would tarnish Turkey’s role as a guarantor of security.
Turkey, then, being a member of NATO, cannot accept Shiite Iran’s offer to join the military coalition of Islamic countries against Israel, because the North Atlantic Alliance overwhelmingly supports Tel Aviv. Otherwise, this will become a challenge not only for Israel, but also for the United States, Great Britain and other NATO members. Furthermore, Turkey today is quite vulnerable economically and the slight growth of its economy of 4% this year, due to exports, may make the country systematically dependent on the West. Even after the recall of his ambassador from Tel Aviv, President Erdogan did not sever diplomatic relations with Israel, kept trade ties with them at a minimum level (including the transit of gas exported from Azerbaijan and Iraq through the its territory) and instructed MIT to continue contacts with Israeli colleagues.
“Turkish sources point out that MIT had previously identified the agent network of the Mossad station in Turkey. Naturally, no counterintelligence or intelligence service is in a hurry to expose the identified spy network of foreign intelligence,” the professor writes.
And then he continues: “Naturally now it is preferable for Turkey to participate alongside Hamas in the framework of the secret front, that is, the confrontation between the secret services. The MIT is one of the most successful secret services in the Middle East and on its territory it preserves every opportunities to neutralize the subversive activities of the Israelis.” According to the Turkish newspaper Habertürk, the MIT warned the Israeli side of serious consequences if Hamas members were persecuted in Turkey.
In turn, the Turkish Interior Minister, Ali Yerlikaya, in whose department the General Directorate of Security (counterintelligence) resides, stated that any attack by Israeli intelligence against Hamas leaders in Turkey is unacceptable; in such a case Israel will pay a “high price”.
Turkey does not exclude the possibility that there will soon be sensational revelations and detentions of Israeli intelligence agents and officials in Turkey. Hürriyet newspaper expert Abdulkadir Selvi believes that Israeli intelligence officers will probably be arrested in the near future, claiming that in 2022 “7 people from Israeli intelligence have been arrested and are in prisons.” Therefore Selvi adds: “Don’t be surprised if in the next few days you hear that someone from Israeli intelligence has been jailed.”
Contrary to Turkish warnings, the Israeli side has so far maintained a professional silence and apparently prefers to speak with facts rather than “verbal diplomacy”. Turkey and Israel continue their confrontation by shifting the emphasis to the “invisible front” of the secret services.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
