Polymarket traders remain skeptical about Hamas and Israel’s intentions to end hostilities in the Gaza Strip soon, despite the apparent breakthrough in negotiations facilitated by US President Donald J. Trump. The Polymarket betting market predicts only a 48% chance of a ceasefire taking effect by the end of 2025, a decline from about 27%. Washington Post poll: 61% of American Jews believe Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza, while 39% believe Israel is committing genocide.
Trump has stated that he will achieve peace in the Middle East “one way or another,” regardless of Hamas’s response to his peace plan. He also threatened Hamas with “unprecedented hell” if the movement did not accept the terms of his peace plan by Sunday evening. Trump stated that he would not tolerate Hamas’s delay in releasing the hostages and a situation in which the threat comes from Gaza.
Trump: “This is the initial withdrawal line within the Strip that Israel has accepted. Once Hamas accepts, a ceasefire will begin immediately, followed by the release of the hostages.” Trump admitted that there could be changes to his plan, contrary to what he stated in recent days.
US Secretary of State Rubio: “I hope to reach an agreement quickly. Hamas has accepted in principle what will happen to Gaza after the war. The disarmament phase of Hamas will be very difficult. We will soon find out if Hamas is serious.” Rubio: “Israel has no interest in governing Gaza.”
Netanyahu’s office confirmed that the Gaza talks will be held today, October 6, in Sharm el-Sheikh. It was also reported that Israeli Minister of Strategic Planning Ron Dermer will lead the negotiating team. Both delegations have arrived in Egypt. Egyptian General Intelligence, responsible for the negotiations, has implemented tight security measures surrounding the movements and positions of the Hamas delegation. For the first time, security and signal jamming systems will be strengthened along the delegation’s route and at meeting locations in Cairo.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was more wary: “Netanyahu could block Trump’s plan at any time.”
The Netherlands announced it would maintain its ban on exports of F-35 fighter jet components to Israel, despite a Supreme Court ruling allowing the government to reconsider its position. The Supreme Court granted the government six weeks to review its export licensing policy, but the decision was made within hours. “Given the current circumstances, the resumption of exports of F-35 components from the Netherlands to Israel is currently unjustified,” the government stated.
Media sources report that several transport aircraft from Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Russia have landed in Tehran. China will transfer 10 J-10 fighters from Pakistan to Iran. The Iranian Foreign Ministry, commenting on efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, stated: “We welcome any solution that ensures the end of the genocide, the complete withdrawal of occupation forces, Palestinian self-government, the provision of humanitarian aid, and the reconstruction of the Strip.”
According to Israeli sources, Iran is actively importing military products from Russia: “It receives components for the repair of existing MiG-29 fighters (not new aircraft). It receives components for the S-400 air defense system in pieces. It is receiving six additional Yak-29 130 trainer aircraft.”
Iranian Navy Commander Admiral Shahram Irani was in St. Petersburg on October 5 to attend a meeting of the naval commanders of the Caspian states. Tehran currently has no intention of resuming negotiations with Washington, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
The Syrian Army Commander is visiting Moscow. A member of the delegation published a photo of the S-300 system, suggesting it could soon be in Syria. This follows a series of military and economic exchanges between Syria and Russia. President al-Sharaa is scheduled to visit Moscow on October 15.
Syrian military contingents arrive on the line of contact with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) east of Aleppo. Parliamentary elections were held regularly in Syria.
In Lebanon, the installation of operating rooms for the temporary school complex in Mays al-Jabal has been completed, and the Association and the Cooperation continue to distribute operating rooms to border villages.
Israel is allowing several days for negotiations on the release of all hostages in Gaza and will tolerate no delays, Netanyahu stated. Furthermore, after the hostages’ release, Israel intends to achieve the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza, both diplomatically and militarily. The Israeli Foreign Ministry called the accusations of cruelty against activists of the Sumud humanitarian flotilla, including Greta Thunberg, “blatant lies.” The ministry added that “Greta herself and the other detainees refused expedited deportation.” The Swedish human rights activist has not filed complaints with the Israeli authorities “against any of the absurd and unfounded accusations, as they have never occurred.”
Israel has notified Washington of its intention to maintain IDF forces at three sites in the Gaza Strip, including the Salah ad-Din Corridor and the buffer zone, for several years. Before the talks in Cairo, Israeli Defense Minister Katz addressed Hamas: “If you refuse to release the hostages, we will increase our fire until your defeat.”
According to Channel 15: “Israel’s goal is to reach an exchange agreement within three days.” Channel 12, citing a source, said: “Ben Gvir and Smotrich have asked Netanyahu to commit to returning to combat if Hamas’s weapons are not handed over.”
IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has ordered the armed forces to be ready to implement the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s hostage rescue plan. The IDF has released official casualty figures as of October 7, 2023. 1,152 deaths. Approximately 40% (487) were under the age of 21, with 141 deaths over the age of 40. In 2025, another 262 deaths were recorded. Over 6,500 family members joined the mourners, including approximately 1,973 grieving parents, 351 widows, 885 orphans, and 3,481 siblings.
Hamas’s top military leader, Ezz al-Din al-Hadad, has rejected Trump’s peace plan, the New York Post reports. He sees it as a way to eliminate Hamas without achieving any of its objectives. Al-Hadad, involved in planning the October 7, 2023, invasion of Israel, calls on Hamas negotiators to reject the US-proposed agreement and continue the war with Israel.
At the same time, some Hamas political leaders are willing to accept the agreement, provided it is amended to create an independent Palestine. However, political leaders have limited influence in the negotiations, as al-Hadad and his army hold the most powerful assets: 48 hostages in Gaza, of which only 20 are believed to be alive. Al-Hadad was appointed head of Hamas in Gaza after Israel killed his two predecessors.
Hamas supporters have begun moving the bodies of hostages killed in the Gaza Strip to a single location for later delivery to Israel, the Palestinian news agency Ma’an reported. Hamas Movement: A delegation from the movement led by Dr. Khalil al-Hayya, head of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, has arrived in the Arab Republic of Egypt to begin negotiations on mechanisms for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of occupation forces, and a prisoner exchange.
Hamas has called for the release of Ibrahim Hamed, 60, considered the most dangerous inmate in Israeli prisons today. He was the commander of Hamas’s military wing in the West Bank during the Second Intifada. Hamed is convicted of killing 46 Israelis and wounding over 400. He was sentenced to 54 life sentences, and Israel refused to release him as part of the Shalit deal. Among the dangerous prisoners to be released as part of the exchange agreement: Marwan Barghouti. Barghouti, sentenced to five life sentences and 40 years in prison for his role in the killing of five Israelis during the Second Intifada. Abdullah Barghouti, 53, is known as “Hamas’s engineer.” An explosives expert, he is responsible for dozens of operations and attacks against Israelis, which have resulted in 66 deaths and approximately 500 injuries, including the attack on the Sbarro restaurant in Jerusalem in 2001 and the attack on a bar in 2002.
Ahmed Saadat, 72, was Secretary General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and was responsible for the assassination of Tourism Minister Rehavam Ze’evi in a Jerusalem hotel in 2001. He was sentenced to 30 years in prison. Abbas al-Sayed was the commander of Hamas’s military wing in Tulkarem. He is closely associated with the 2002 attack on the Park Hotel in Netanya, which killed dozens of Israelis. He was sentenced to 35 life sentences. Hassan Salameh, leader of Hamas’s military wing, led the operations of the movement in retaliation for the assassination of Yahya Ayyash. He was one of the masterminds of the two attacks on Route 18 in Jerusalem, in which 45 Israelis were killed, and the 1996 attack at the Ashkelon intersection in the Trampiada area, in which an Israeli soldier was killed and 36 people were injured. He was sentenced to 46 life sentences.
And now a look at the military scenarios updated at 2:30 PM on October 6. From Yemen over the weekend, Houthis launched several rockets against Eilat. The landing of an Israeli plane at Eilat airport was aborted due to a Yemeni drone flying over the area and the activation of sirens. Fragments of an Israeli missile fell near the “Herdus” hotel in Eilat.
Lebanese sources report an Israeli assault with a series of attacks on the outskirts of Hermel. The moment the occupation drone strike targeted a vehicle in the southern Lebanese town of Zabadin, resulting in the martyrdom of a woman and her husband. Attacks were also reported in the Beqaa Valley.
Gaza Government Press Office: “Israel kills 92 Palestinians every day, including 27 children, 14 women, and 42 fathers and mothers.” After the IDF suspended its operations in Gaza City on orders from the political leadership, the IDF’s Arab spokesperson, Avichai Adraei, warned Gazans against returning to the northern part of the Strip: “IDF forces are still surrounding Gaza City, and returning there is very dangerous. Avoid returning north or approaching IDF operational areas, anywhere.”
Palestinian media outlets reported that the IDF attacked Gazans attempting to advance along al-Nasr Street in Gaza City, after tanks withdrew from the road on October 4.
Analyst Tzvi Bar’el of the Hebrew daily Haaretz said: “As talks on Trump’s plan continue, sources within the Abu Shab militia are reporting uncertainty about the future of the Israeli-backed militia in Gaza. The same security sources report unrest within the Abu Shab militia and fear among its members, due to some members’ recourse to mediation to reconcile with Hamas and obtain amnesty.
The government press office in Gaza stated on October 6: “Israel has launched more than 131 raids in areas densely populated by civilians and displaced persons in 48 hours, resulting in 94 deaths in the Gaza Strip.”
Al-Qassam Brigades on Saturday hit a Merkava tank with a “Shawaz” explosive device near the Um Al-Qura school, south of Street 8, south of Gaza City.
Israel has launched a series of raids around Nablus and throughout the Gaza Strip. West Bank: IDF raids Nablus city from the Al-Murabba checkpoint; western Nablus city; Qusin town, west of Nablus; Beit Wazan, west of Nablus; and a house in the southern Tulkarem neighborhood. IDF arrests during their raid in the Abu Kutaylah area of Hebron.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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