Since the 5th of June, news of an Israeli attack on Hezbollah in Lebanese territory has become increasingly pressing. Social media sources state that: “Israel intends to invade the south of Lebanon around August this year, month less month more, to seize all the territory up to the Litani river and stop Hezbollah’s missile attacks in the north of the country.”
According to the same account: “This invasion will likely consist of 12 brigades structured into 3 divisions: 146th Division: – 205th Reserve Armored Brigade – Carmeli Reserve Brigade – 226th Reserve Brigade – 228th Reserve Brigade; and again 36th Armored Division: – 188th Armored Brigade – Golani Brigade – Kiryati Reserve Armored Brigade – Etzioni Reserve Brigade; finally the 98th Division: – 7th Armored Brigade – 35th Brigade – Commando Brigade – 551st Reserve Brigade despite having undergone training according to rumors on the internet, they were selected by the Command to be specifically spared for the invasion.
At the moment, however, only three of those brigades are in position: – The 551st Brigade depends on the 146th Division in the Western Galilee; – The 36th and 188th Brigades were dismantled and all their battalions were assigned to the 3 Territorial Brigades guarding the Lebanese border. According to Osint sources, the number of soldiers employed would essentially be 18,000, approximately double the number of those who entered Lebanon in 2006.
However, the other brigades designated for the clash with Hezbollah in the north are currently employed elsewhere: – The 7th, 35th Brigades and the Commando are engaged in and around Gaza and have not yet been moved north or prepared for the invasion. – The Carmeli Brigade is currently in Netzarim, but is expected to move north in the next few days to replace 551. (Carmeli itself will be replaced by Alexandroni in Netzarim) – 205, 226, 228, Kiryati and Etzioni have not been mobilized.
It takes about six weeks to move the troops and therefore if the attack takes place it will not be before August.
Again according to social media sources close to the IDF they let it be known that the IDF has little time to operate in Lebanon or it will lose and a long war of attrition will begin. “However, once the invasion begins, the IDF must complete all objectives within less than 3 months (ideally within 50 days) otherwise it will be forced to withdraw,” reads a post by a military analyst.
“This is because 60% of the invasion forces have to be discharged and demobilized after 3 months have passed since they are reservists, and it is not possible to continue without them the IDF simply does not have enough regular forces on their own and cannot do it.”
The same source notes that “in Gaza, reserve brigades have failed to remain operational beyond 65 days without rotation. If the IDF can take the Litani Line before that happens, the war is won.”
Other sources report that: “The 36th Division will occupy southern Lebanon, the 162nd Division will occupy Netzarim and Philadelphia and the 98th Division will be used in raids on Gaza for the next 3 years.”
A few years ago Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, said in a speech: “Your (Israeli) divisions will be destroyed, your brigades will be destroyed, your battalions will be dispersed, your tanks will be demolished”, all this live on TV.
And he concluded his speech by stating: “I promise you once again, you will watch a live broadcast of the destruction of Israeli tanks, divisions and brigades if they enter southern Lebanon.”
In any case, Israel is moving towards the attack in August, on June 6 the IDF announced: “Due to the growing escalation with Hezbollah, the Israeli army announces: According to the assessment of the situation, the decision to reduce the units reserve in the Northern Command will be postponed by several weeks.”
Hillel Biton Rosen, journalist wrote: “Towards a war against Hezbollah: the Israeli army has announced the postponement of the decision to reduce reserve classes in northern settlements.”
The United States warns that Israel’s “limited war” with Lebanon could push Iran to intervene. US officials told Axios that the Biden administration has told Israel that it does not believe “a limited war” in Lebanon or a “small regional war” is a realistic option because it will be difficult to prevent it from spreading and spiraling out of control.
The Biden administration has warned Israel that a ground invasion of Lebanon, even if only in areas near the border, would likely prompt Iran to intervene, U.S. and Israeli officials said. A scenario that the administration has raised with Israel is that Lebanon could be flooded with militants from pro-Iranian militias in Syria, Iraq and even Yemen who would like to join the fighting.
A senior IDF official said the situation had worsened since May because Hezbollah conducted more effective drone strikes against Israeli targets that were not intercepted. At the same time, Hezbollah began firing “Burkan” rockets with 1,000- to 2,000-pound warheads that caused significant damage to IDF bases along the border.
No decisions were made at the war cabinet meeting, but the IDF presented several options for expanding the fighting, including a ground invasion aimed at pushing Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces away from the border, the IDF officer.
The Maariv newspaper did a poll in which there was also a question about Lebanon: 62% of Israeli public opinion is in favor of opening a war front with Lebanon, compared to 18% who are opposed.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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