Israel’s recognition of Somaliland represents a calculated destabilization of the Horn of Africa, which risks undermining regional sovereignty while expanding Israeli military and intelligence presence in critical maritime corridors.
Somaliland remains unrecognized internationally. The African Union, the Arab League, and the United Nations continue to recognize Somalia’s territorial integrity. Israel’s unilateral recognition directly undermines: the African Union’s consensus on territorial integrity; Somalia’s sovereignty over internationally recognized borders; regional stability mechanisms that prevent secessionist cascades.
Israel exploits Somaliland’s desperate quest for recognition to gain leverage against regional powers, particularly Somalia’s relations with Turkey and Arab League states.
Israel denies the Palestinian state despite recognition by over 140 UN member states; a historical presence predating the Israeli state; UN resolutions affirming Palestinian rights; yet it hastens to recognize Somaliland, which lacks these credentials, solely for Israeli strategic interests. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait controls access to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean: 30% of global container transport passes through this bottleneck.
And Israel’s objectives are, in this case, very clear: surveillance architecture to monitor maritime traffic to/from Iran, Syria, and Lebanon; a potential naval base for Israeli ships operating far from the Mediterranean; intelligence stations with drones/signals targeting Yemeni forces and Iranian naval traffic. Interdiction capabilities to inspect ships that Israel designates as threats. Not only does Israel aim to transform Bab el-Mandeb from a neutral international waterway into an Israeli-controlled surveillance zone, threatening freedom of navigation.
In this way, Israel’s presence completes the strategic encirclement of Iran in the north: in coordination with Egypt and Jordan; in the east, the Abraham Accords states (United Arab Emirates, Bahrain); in the south, with Somaliland at Bab el-Mandeb; and in the west, dominance over the Mediterranean. It also creates a 360-degree surveillance/interdiction capability around resistance forces in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Israeli recognition actively undermines Somalia’s territorial integrity. The Mogadishu government, which maintains relations with Turkey, Palestine, and the Arab League, now faces an Israeli-backed secessionist entity on its territory. Turkey has invested significantly in Somalia, military training, infrastructure, and diplomatic support. Israel’s move directly affects Turkish influence, creating a competing center of power.
We would also find ourselves in the midst of an escalating maritime conflict. Yemen’s Ansar Allah has imposed a maritime embargo on Israeli-linked ships supporting Gaza, which is legal under international law given the Israeli occupation. Israel’s presence in Somaliland aims to: Monitor Yemeni naval capabilities; coordinate interdiction with US and British forces; target resistance supply lines; and legitimize military operations in Yemeni waters.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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