Amid threats of Iranian revenge and an equally intimidating Israeli response, the dialogue has continued. According to Lebanese Journalist Khalil Nasrallah: “The joint statement by Qatar, Egypt and the United States issued at dawn on August 9, discusses a ceasefire agreement that is on the table, with only the implementation details that need to be finalized. It calls on both sides to resume talks on August 15 in Doha or Cairo to address the remaining gaps. Later, Israeli officials confirm that “Tel Aviv” was aware of the statement in advance. Later, a statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said he would send a negotiating team to the agreed location to work out the terms and framework of the agreement.”
Later, a senior US administration official confirmed the agreement on “temporary arrangements and proposals” and indicated that the remaining issues concern the implementation of the agreement. He noted that “any Iranian escalation could undermine hopes for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza,” but added: “The statement is not related to the regional situation, and if it has an impact on Iran, it is a good thing.”
Iran is therefore waiting for Israel’s response, which will certainly be negative, at which point Tehran will be forced to respond. In the meantime, Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis continue their attacks. And so does Israel. If Israel, miraculously, accepts the deal, Iran will be making a show and nothing more.
The Israeli army is meanwhile preparing for the worst, preparing to build a tent city in the Negev desert to house displaced people in the event of a major war.
Not only that, according to Lebanese sources, if Hezbollah’s launch preparations are detected in Israel in advance, the IDF intends to act to foil the attack in advance and hit the launchers before they fire. But on the other hand, they are also preparing for the possibility that there is no information about the operation in advance.
The Israeli security apparatus believes that launching a “preemptive strike” against Hezbollah is not the right thing to do at this time: the conditions are very suboptimal. International legitimacy is at an all-time low, the element of surprise is lacking, and Hezbollah is well prepared. The IDF is busy fighting in the Gaza Strip with limited personnel available for another front.
The Israeli response to Iran and Hezbollah will depend, to a large extent, on two parameters: the extent of the damage and the casualties in Israel. The intensity of the attack (the amount of firepower used) and the number of targets successfully hit also fall into the above parameters.
In Israel, they say they will judge events based on what actually happens and decide on retaliation accordingly. Defense Minister Gallant has spoken in recent days with a number of international officials: US Defense Secretary Austin and the British, Italian and German defense ministers.
There is an effort to bring together as many international partners as possible to form an international coalition, in terms of support, backing and even action to help defend Israel.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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