As we close these lines, Tehran has attacked Israel’s territory with over 100 “hypersonic” missiles. 1864 warnings and sirens throughout Israel. The IDF is reportedly ready to respond. The Iranian attack ended at 19:40 on October 1.
“The United States still supports a ceasefire, but military pressure could help reach a diplomatic agreement”. In effect, therefore, the United States would give the green light to Israel’s war in Lebanon.
Senior White House officials privately told Israel that the United States would support its decision to increase military pressure against Hezbollah, even as the Biden administration has publicly urged the Israeli government in recent weeks to scale back its attacks, according to American and Israeli officials.
Presidential adviser Amos Hochstein and White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk told top Israeli officials in recent weeks that the United States agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s broad strategy of shifting Israel’s military focus northward against Hezbollah to convince the group to engage in diplomatic talks to end the conflict, the officials told POLITICO.
The reasoning, Politico reported, is that Israel has obliterated Hezbollah’s command structure in Lebanon, severely undermining the group’s capabilities and weakening Iran.
Russia has told Israel to withdraw from Lebanon immediately.
The United States, however, has also detected preparations in Iran for a missile attack on Israel by Iran. Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei will lead Friday prayers in Tehran and give an unprecedented speech on October 4. The last time the supreme leader personally led Friday prayers and gave a sermon was in January 2020, after Iran’s missile attacks on US bases in Iraq following the assassination of General Soleimani.
Benjamin Netanyahu was clear in a public statement on September 30 that he would attack Iran and promote regime change. About two weeks ago, the cabinet approved another goal for the war that has remained confidential: preventing a broad campaign involving Iran. On Thursday evening, cabinet ministers changed this goal, on the eve of Nasrallah’s assassination. In the special discussion convened when the prime minister was staying at his hotel in New York, hours before Nasrallah’s assassination, the ministers updated the goal to “reduce the possibility of the campaign turning into an all-out war.” The September 30 cabinet meeting removed the goal of avoiding a war with Iran. That is, Israel is preparing for a significant expansion of the war, including an exchange of blows with Iran soon. On the afternoon of October 1, Benjamin Netanyahu stated: “Citizens of Israel, we are in the midst of a campaign against Iran’s axis of evil. Yesterday I said that these are days of great successes and great challenges.” In the evening, social media sources reported that the presidential plane had left Israel.
Israel will recruit more soldiers for the war in Lebanon, the IDF said in a statement: “Based on the assessment of the situation, it was decided to mobilize four reserve brigades and additional forces for operational activities in the northern sector.”
Deputy Chief of Staff Major General Amir Baram signals IDF invasion intentions: “The elimination of Nasrallah is not the end of the war, the coming days will be testing days.” The IDF has imposed a closed military zone in the area of Metula, Misgav Am and Kfar Giladi. “The 98th Division has begun targeted activity in the southern Lebanon area,” said Daniel Hagari, spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces. He also said: “Based on the assessment of the situation, the IDF is recalling four additional reserve brigades for operational missions in the northern arena.”
IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari urges Israelis not to publish troop movements amid growing indications, reports and rumors of an imminent Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon. Some Israeli politicians have posted thinly veiled references to Operation Blooming Ground on social media, including Lebanese Economy Minister Amin Salam, who told Sky News that “the operations have begun,” adding that he had heard that the IDF was “on the move” and had the border “covered with tanks.”
The IDF also killed Muhammad Jaafar Katzir, commander of the the unit for the transfer of weapons from Iran and its affiliates to Hezbollah in Lebanon (Unit 4400).
We report the speech of Israeli officers to soldiers who are gathering near the Lebanese border: “Our tasks are to attack the terrorist organization Hezbollah, destroy its infrastructure, its leader and terrorists, remove the threat to the residents of the State of Israel and create conditions to return the residents of the north to their homes in Hatachon.
“You fought with courage, aggression, lethality and determination. At the beginning of the new year, we, the combat teams of the 98th employee, are the first to go on the attack for a new reality and for the residents of the north.”
UKMTO reports a missile attack on a ship 97 nautical miles northwest of Hudaydah, Yemen. The Houthis struck another ship in response to the killing of Nasrallah.
The Lebanese Army said on the afternoon of October 1: “We have not yet observed any entry of Israeli forces into Lebanese territory.” Yesterday they could have carried out a raid similar to that of the past months, but so far there has been no push towards the Lebanese border. The last few months have involved unused infrastructure, some even still blocked. There have been no clashes in any.
Escalation of the situation between Israel – Hezbollah – Hamas updated at 16:00 on October 1. The Lebanese Army abandons its position in Abu Shanan, near Qatmon, in the Rmeish region, to redeploy its forces to other border areas. Artillery attacks focused on the Khiyam plains. The evacuation of the Lebanese Army was confirmed from all border points and watchtowers, towards the rear where the units and battalion headquarters are located. This occurred after a council of the UN forces in Lebanon, based on the Israeli intentions
Israeli artillery strikes non-stop during the night towards the Khiyam and Wazani plains using phosphorus shells and tank shells; also hit the western areas in the Kfar Shouba and Shebaa heights in the east. So far, there are no incursions into Lebanon. Israeli armor can be spotted in the settlement of Maayan Baruch, opposite Abel al-Qamh and al-Wazzani
Israeli airstrikes near Mahmoudieh, Wadi Burger, Litani River and the outskirts of Zawtar and Dier Siryan. Another attack during the night was reported in Markaba. Israeli airstrikes near Marwanieh, Khiyam, Kfarkila, Kawkaba and Arabsalem.
Israeli airstrikes on Taibeh, Qana and Baysarieh. The focus is on border villages. Rockets and flash shells are fired at Blida, followed by artillery attacks towards the Kan’an area south of the city. Israel issued evacuation orders overnight for an entire neighborhood in Beirut. This is the area of the Sayyed Shuhada compound. They are evacuating the entire area and the area near the Al-Qaem mosque (where several killings took place). The other area is in Laylaki, near the TopG store. The third evacuation took place on Bir Al-Abed street, near the Al-Rida mosque.
According to Lebanese sources, 13 buildings were destroyed overnight, which are part of a subsidized housing complex: 5 buildings in the Al-Kadhim project; 8 buildings in the Al-Ameer project
In response, Hezbollah claims attacks on the Kiryats near Haifa with Fadi-1 rockets. Hezbollah issued a statement announcing that it hit Israeli soldiers in the orchards in front of the towns of Odaiseh and Kfar Kila with appropriate weapons. Claimed another attack against soldiers in Shtula. Red alert in Misgav Am. Hezbollah is trying to attack soldiers who are gathering in this area. Red alert in Zar’it on the Lebanese border Red alert in Netua, Shtula. During the morning, Hezbollah carried out 6 attacks, targeting settlements and border areas, for the first time with such intensity in 1-2 weeks. The attacks aim to disrupt the Israeli staging bases of: Shtula with artillery; Metulla with artillery; Metulla with rockets; Avivim with artillery; Rosh Pina with rockets; Duviv with Falaq-2; Ramtha Base and Samaqa.
On the afternoon of October 1, Hezbollah begins operations in Khaybar, shouting “Labayk ya Nasrallah”. They announced that they had launched several Fadi-4 rockets towards the Galilot spy base and Tel Aviv. Some of the rockets were intercepted and at least one hit Route 6 near Kafr Qasim. Sirens in the Kiryats surrounding Haifa and Acre.
Attacks are reported in Gaza: the Israeli attack on a school killed 6 people.
Israel also attacked in Syria: in Damascus it killed 3 civilians.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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