According to Middle Eastern military analysts on the social sphere, the city of Khiyam is the most important battle of the moment, if the IDF fails to occupy the city for weeks, and the clashes continue for weeks, and the IDF continues to lose soldiers, it will be a negative factor for the IDF.
If, however, it succeeds in this objective, that is, maintaining control for weeks – they say on the social sphere: “Then the IDF operated where it wanted. The resistance in Aita lasted until it could no longer hold.”
The posts read: “The IDF played it safe, for limited objectives and was able to create an image of victory but with limited real success in terms of size and control; the IDF is not strengthening its positions in Lebanon fearing losses from attacks; the IDF is largely removing forces from Lebanon, and you can see the brigades celebrating their departure.”
They also say that “the IDF has not fully protected the Lebanese cities and although Hezbollah cannot reinforce the cities where the resistance has been “stopped,” it can still make it costly for Israel to stay in those cities. Hezbollah, despite having suffered severe blows, is still able to operate. The ground forces and all other units are still capable, composed and willing to play their roles.” Despite Israel’s downsizing of Hezbollah in recent months.
The IDF has attacked everything it knew how to attack before the war, and now the IDF is simply attacking low-value targets (civilian and economic infrastructure) and these show that it cannot get worse and from this point Hezbollah can only get better. The IDF’s fear of using helicopters and navy near Lebanon indicates that they are not sure that Hezbollah has truly been defeated, and that on the contrary Hezbollah still has the means to attack those assets. And if attacked, it would represent a severe blow to the IDF in terms of shots and soldiers killed.
According to Arab military analysts, “The fact that the Israeli government wants a ceasefire now and that the IDF accepts it despite everything means that I simply do not want to go any further.” After all, the promises made have been fulfilled: “They killed Sayyed Nasrallah, they killed the entire first leadership and they ‘finished’ their work on the border. Anything else would be counterproductive and needlessly costly for the IDF.”
And it continues: “Lebanon has no hostages, the IDF does not have enough soldiers to go to every town and village in southern Lebanon, they cannot spend a month on every small village and maintain this slow pace. Time is now on Lebanon’s side, despite the losses they have had to face.
The only unknown now is Hezbollah. Also of interest are some points from the interview with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, on October 30: “The arrival of Amos in Israel and Lebanon is a good indicator of the progress that is being made. We adhere to resolution 1701 and we want the Lebanese army to increase its forces in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese army needs more weapons. There should be no weapons in southern Lebanon except with the Lebanese state. Since September 21, I have not spoken to Hezbollah. I only speak to Nabih Berri. We need a ceasefire guaranteed by the US. It is too late for Hezbollah to accept the separation from Gaza”.
And Mikati said: “Amos promised Lebanon a ceasefire before November 5, we do not want to endanger the airport. If Iran and Iraq want to send aid, let them send it by sea. We will not endanger anyone to reopen the border with Syria”.
Then he attacks the Lebanese displaced, saying that “the schools that host them are not hotels and claims that they are preparing to move them to tents and makeshift areas near the sports city area”.
In other words, Lebanese politics is ready to defuse Hezbollah’s power. Speaking to Politico, Samir Geagea believes that this is the most opportune moment to defuse Hezbollah. In his bet on Israeli aggression, Geagea hopes that enough pressure will be exerted on Hezbollah to the point that it will have no choice but to surrender its weapons.
Lebanese Forces (LF) MP Nazih Matta says: “We must run with our hands and feet to implement international resolutions.” But he also admits: “We cannot deny that the international community has given cover to Israel.”
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
Follow our updates on Geopolitical Gleanings - Spigolature geopolitiche: https://t.me/agc_NW and on our blog The Gleanings of AGCNEWS - Le Spigolature di AGCNEWS: https://spigolatureagcnews.blogspot.com/
