#ISRAELHAMASWAR. Hezbollah – Israel: A truce signed to open other fronts

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A ceasefire has been declared between Lebanon and Israel in Lebanon in effect, starting from 04:00 AM Lebanese time on November 27.

There will be a return to the status quo according to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, Hezbollah will remain active, armed and present south of the Litani River throughout southern Lebanon. Everyone in Lebanon welcomed the ceasefire as a release from hell.

In the streets in a rare show of solidarity, workers of the Lebanese political party “Future Movement”, composed mainly of Sunnis affiliated with Rafic and Saad Hariri, distributed sweets to civilian supporters of Hezbollah returning home from the front.

The Political Bureau of Ansar Allah wrote: “We congratulate the Lebanese people and the Islamic Resistance on the announcement of the ceasefire with the Israeli enemy and the beginning of the return of thousands of displaced people to their homes.” These words were echoed by the Secretary General of the Islamic Jihad Movement, Commander Ziyad Al-Nakhalah, who congratulated His Eminence Sheikh Naim Qassem, Secretary General of Hezbollah, on the clear victory, and sends a message from the heart of Palestine to the heart of Lebanon that resists.

Hamas also had its say: “We praise the fundamental role played by the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon in supporting Gaza and the Palestinian resistance, as well as the immense sacrifices made by Hezbollah and its leadership, first and foremost the martyred Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. […] The enemy’s acceptance of the Lebanon agreement without having achieved the conditions it had set represents a significant milestone in shattering Netanyahu’s illusions of reshaping the Middle East by force and his illusions of defeating the forces of resistance or disarming them.” […]

“While we in Hamas are closely following the developments of this agreement in Lebanon, we express our commitment to cooperate with any effort to establish a ceasefire in Gaza. We are eager to end the aggression against our people within the framework of the agreed national terms, which include a ceasefire, the withdrawal of the occupation forces, the return of the displaced, and the implementation of a genuine and comprehensive prisoner exchange agreement.” Hamas thus announces that it is ready for a ceasefire in exchange for its prisoners.

The key points of the agreement signed with Lebanon are 13: 1) Hezbollah and all other armed groups present in Lebanese territory will not carry out any offensive action against Israel 2) Israel, in turn, will not carry out any offensive military operation against targets in Lebanon, including from land, air and sea. 3) Israel and Lebanon recognize the importance of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. 4) Both parties reserve the right to self-defense within the framework of international conventions. 5) Lebanon’s official military and security forces will be the only armed body authorized to bear arms or use forces in southern Lebanon. 6) All sale, supply or production of weapons or weapons-related materials to Lebanon will be under the supervision and control of the Lebanese government. 7) All illegal facilities involved in the production of weapons and related materials will be dismantled. 8) All military facilities and sites will be dismantled and all illegal weapons that do not meet these commitments will be confiscated. 9) A committee acceptable to Israel and Lebanon will be formed to oversee and assist in ensuring the implementation of these commitments. 10) Israel and Lebanon will report any potential violations of these obligations to the Committee and UNIFIL (the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon). 11) Lebanon will deploy its official security forces and armed forces along all borders, border crossings and the line defining the southern region in accordance with the deployment plan. 12) Israel will gradually withdraw its forces from the south towards the Blue Line within a maximum period of 60 days. 13) The United States will push for indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to reach an agreement on democracy.

Lebanon is also called upon to elect a new president. Hezbollah has never spoken out or made any speeches about the agreement, on the evening of 26th the vice chairman of Hezbollah’s political council, Mahmoud al-Qamati, expressed doubts about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s commitment to a possible ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. He told Al Jazeera Qatar: “We have doubts about Netanyahu’s adherence to the ceasefire agreement, because we have always been deceived and fooled by him, and we will not allow him to trap us with this agreement”.

In the end, however, everything went as planned. According to analysts close to Hezbollah, the agreement is an implicit capitulation to Hezbollah. Hezbollah analysts focused on the term used by Netanyahu during the press conference: “Israel has accepted” the ceasefire, which means that Hezbollah offered it. “When you offer something, you are in a position of power, you dictate the rules and the conditions, you are the one who can make the demands.”

According to analysts close to Israel, however, the loser in this agreement was Hezbollah: “You cannot begin to reveal the chronology of the Third Lebanon War without going beyond October 8, when Hezbollah began attacking northern Israel in support of Hamas. It all started years ago, when the Mossad planted explosive devices inside pagers and walkie-talkies for Hezbollah agents!”.

Following this other line of analysis, Israel always knew about October 7 and tried to attract the attention and sympathy of the Middle East. And the analysis continues: […] A dangerous organization and as threatening as Hezbollah, in Israel’s eyes, cannot be left unexamined. It is plausible, if not certain, that Hezbollah has, for many years, been infiltrated by Israeli spies, who may not be tampering with Hezbollah’s activities, but are providing Tel Aviv with information about current and circumstantial threats to Israeli security. If Israel knew that Hamas would attack Israel on October 7, which it did, then Israel knew for certain that Hezbollah would also get involved. There is no debate.”

They continue: “The only thing up for debate is how much worse it will get for the Axis of Resistance. Netanyahu made it clear in his speech that Iran is the next target. The new Trump administration will give Netanyahu whatever he wants when it comes to bringing Iran to its knees.”

He concludes: “The ceasefire implemented on November 27th ends the Lebanese front forever. It is highly unlikely that Hezbollah will start shooting again. Its leadership has been decapitated and, although its military strength has been tested, it has not been destroyed. In short, Hezbollah is still functional as an organization and has not lost its ability to threaten Israel, but the ceasefire implemented makes Hezbollah a non-threat, at least for the time being. Israel has achieved its goal: it has not destroyed Hezbollah, but pacification through a ceasefire agreement is still a victory for Israel. Any statement to the contrary by the “resisters” is a defense mechanism.”

But if you look closely at the situation, everyone has lost, many, too many people who never cried out for war have died. Israel accepted the agreement also because it failed to achieve its goals in the Lebanon campaign and to push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River.

Israel actually failed to capture a single major settlement, despite losing over 60 Merkava tanks and a large number of military personnel. Israel failed to return the displaced people to the North at all. It basically lost this battle despite the fact that it had the full support of the US, UK, France and Germany, and other European countries with all kinds of weapons, money and special units.

But what did manage to get Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire was the bombing and destruction of civilian buildings all over Lebanon. The pressure on Hezbollah inside Lebanon started to grow. Hezbollah did not have rockets with the same destructive power as the US ones that Israel used, so from there Hezbollah could not retaliate with the same measure and prevent Israel from bombing civilian infrastructure, so Hezbollah failed to protect the civilian population.

In practice, Israel forced Hezbollah to cease fire by bombing Lebanon in depth and hitting not only Hezbollah sites as it has always claimed but also civilians, so Israel not as it had announced that it would defeat Hezbollah that would drive them out of southern Lebanon with military force but with bombs on the neighborhoods and cities of Lebanon.

But for all the optimists we feel like saying that it is not over yet. Now the pressure has begun on Syria. Israeli bombings have “laid down” the border crossings, Israel is building a border line on the Golan Heights; it has already started building. And coincidentally at the same time as the announcement of the cease fire, an offensive by Joulani HTS began, against Assad and the Russian and Iranian allies. HTS, let’s remember, was an ally of al Qaeda, of ISIS and takes money from anyone willing to give it power in Syria.

A Joulani allied militia, Jaysh al Izza, on the afternoon of the 27th announcing his support for Joulani said in a statement that their goal is to drive the Shiites out of Syria. Shiites have increased in number in Syria since the Iranians arrived who supported Assad’s government against the rebels together with Hezbollah. To date the rebels have headed against the 146th west of Aleppo. Russian raids and Assad’s artillery are already at work.

Tactically it will be a bloodbath, strategically this could be the end of the arms trade from Tehran to Beirut for Israel and then there is Iran which has already said it is ready for a new attack against Israel. In short, 2025 will still be bombarded with bombs in the Middle East.

Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio

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