On July 31, Israeli media reported that two Israeli reconnaissance satellites were subsequently removed from orbit. The deorbited satellites include one of two Ofeq 11 third-generation optical reconnaissance satellites (June 9) and one of a pair of Ofeq 10 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) spacecraft (July 14).
Meanwhile, the region faces the prospect of widespread unrest following the recent killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. This leaves Israel vulnerable to possible large-scale retaliatory strikes from Tehran, its Yemeni Houthi allies and Lebanese Hezbollah, while facing limited satellite intelligence (GEOINT) resources. While the loss of these two satellites is not particularly suspicious given their obsolescence, it does mean that the Israeli Ministry of Defense now has only two modern reconnaissance satellites: Ofeq 16, launched in 2020 for optical reconnaissance, and Ofeq 13, launched in 2023 to conduct radar reconnaissance. These two satellites are still completely insufficient to cover regional war theaters. This is problematic for Tel Aviv at a time of rising tensions with Iran and its allies.
The Israeli defense still operates two second-generation optical satellites, Ofeq 7 and Ofeq 9, both launched in 2010, but the characteristics of these satellites make them virtually unsuitable for modern conflicts. As a result, the Israeli defense will have to rely on a single Eros C3-1 satellite from commercial operator Imagesat International, which was launched in 2022 and has a performance similar to the Ofeq 11 satellite lost in June.
In particular, the Israeli Ministry of Defense is now heavily dependent on its contracts with foreign private operators, especially US-based BlackSky, and on the quality of intelligence it receives from its allies, especially the United States. In the context of the complex transition processes in Washington as the November presidential elections approach, this topic has become a key topic of discussion during the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on July 23-24, 2024.
However, in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon, Israel can rely on its ubiquitous intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance UAVs, including Elbit Systems’ Hermes 900 and Israel Aerospace Industries’ (IAI) Eitan, which together provide 24/7 coverage of the territory.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
Follow our updates on Geopolitical Gleanings - Spigolature geopolitiche: https://t.me/agc_NW and on our blog The Gleanings of AGCNEWS - Le Spigolature di AGCNEWS: https://spigolatureagcnews.blogspot.com/
