A study by Alma Research and Education Center highlights how Hezbollah has recently begun to target non-evacuated areas.
The Israeli research center’s September 2 post states: “Hezbollah attacks on non-evacuated areas have increased significantly recently, with attacks at distances greater than 5 kilometers from the border.”
The report also states: “Our analysis of events has shown that the primary catalyst for the increasing trend has been the elimination of high-ranking Hezbollah figures. Furthermore, as the armed conflict persists, Hezbollah has increased the intensity of retaliatory attacks. Despite Hezbollah’s retaliatory attack on August 25 due to the elimination of Fuad Shakar (July 30), the number of rocket attacks against non-evacuated communities this month (45) was lower than in July (51)”.
Basically, for Alma, with key figures in Hezbollah gone, those who remain are trying to make more exhilarating attacks against inhabited and non-evacuated communities.
For this reason, Alma suggests, in some circumstances Israel has applied the technique of the preemptive attack: “The IDF’s preemptive maneuver on August 25 effectively foiled Hezbollah’s planned retaliatory attack. Analysis of weapon usage patterns during the last week of August, following the IDF’s preemptive assault on August 25, revealed a decrease in the use of high-trajectory fire, while simultaneously witnessing an increase in the use of UAVs and drones”.
“After a two-day pause (August 26-27), Hezbollah resumed high-speed fire at Israel, but at a reduced intensity compared to previous activities in the month. As of September 1, Hezbollah has returned to its usual level of intensity employing high-trajectory fire, which serves as its primary weapon in the war. Please refer to our August 2024 summary.”
Finally, Alma noted: “UNSC Resolution 1701 of 2006 led to the renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate for a further year on August 28. The mandate was automatically renewed. Indeed, the current mandate and UNIFIL’s efforts under it are clearly ineffective. Indeed, UNIFIL has never implemented Resolution 1701. Both UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army have expressed a reluctance to engage with Hezbollah to allow this to happen. Hezbollah is strategically exploiting UNIFIL’s presence in southern Lebanon as a means to advance its human shield strategy. Our assessment indicates that the annual automatic renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate was motivated by antipathy towards Hezbollah and a realistic hesitation to directly address the issue. Therefore, in the context of any forthcoming political settlement, it is crucial to establish an executive authority with a distinct mindset and a single mandate. Please refer to our article on the renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate, which focuses on its significance and recommendations.”
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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