Iraq is facing a complex energy crisis, fueled by its dependence on oil, the consequences of the revocation of waivers to international sanctions and the intricate regional geopolitical dynamics. In this context, Turkey emerges as a major player, with an increasingly incisive presence in the Iraqi energy sector and a key role in the dynamics with the autonomous region of Kurdistan.
This dependence on oil revenues, as highlighted by Mustafa al Karaawi, member of the Parliamentary Committee on Finance, represents a structural vulnerability that requires a diversification of sources of income to ensure greater financial stability. Added to this structural vulnerability is the recent revocation of the US waiver that allowed Iraq to import gas from Iran, further exacerbating the energy crisis and forcing Baghdad and the Ministry of Electricity to seek alternatives to power its power plants, starting assessments to explore alternative sources. To secure its energy sovereignty and reduce dependence on a single external player, Iraq is accelerating negotiations to finalize a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply agreement with Algeria and exploring gas imports from Qatar. In addition, the Iraqi parliamentary committee has recommended accelerating the completion of the Basra-Haditha pipeline and deploying Iraqi engineering talent to increase domestic production and reduce dependence on oil imports.
In this crisis scenario, Turkey has demonstrated “an immediate willingness to participate in resolving the energy crisis facing Iraq,” as reported by the London-based daily al Arab. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani met with Turkey’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar, reiterating the government’s willingness to improve joint cooperation with Turkish companies in various sectors, including energy, and to increase electricity supply through joint interconnection. Iraq plans to double its electricity imports from Turkey to meet demand in its northern provinces by increasing the capacity of the transmission line between the two countries from 300 to 600 megawatts by next summer. Turkey has offered to fill the gaps created by the reduction in Iranian gas imports, aiming to double its electricity imports from Turkey to meet demand in its northern provinces, thus consolidating its role as Iraq’s preferred energy supplier.
However, this growing dependence on Turkish electricity raises questions about Iraq’s energy sovereignty and its vulnerability to political and economic pressure from Ankara, accentuated by Turkey’s interest in the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, with which Ankara has long-term energy agreements. Iraqi Kurdistan, with its significant oil and gas reserves, is a crucial element in regional energy dynamics and a key partner for Turkey. The Turkish-run Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is the main export route for Kurdish oil to international markets, giving Ankara significant control over the region’s energy flows. Despite legal disputes and controversies with the central government in Baghdad, energy relations between Erbil and Ankara have remained strong, based on mutual economic interests and a shared vision of regional stability. These agreements, often criticized for their lack of transparency and potential impacts on Iraqi sovereignty, have granted Kurdistan a certain amount of economic autonomy and Turkey privileged access to the region’s energy resources. The autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan is a crucial element in Turkey’s energy strategy. The Iraqi government is making “great efforts to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq” and negotiations are ongoing with foreign oil companies contracted by the region to resolve some technical issues related to the resumption of exports. Kurdistan Regional Government Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar discussed removing obstacles to the resumption of Kurdistan’s oil exports. Turkey is thus positioning itself as a mediator and facilitator in the resumption of Kurdish oil exports, but above all as a principal beneficiary of this newfound stability.
The expansion of Turkish influence in Iraq is part of a regional geopolitical context of growing competition between powers such as Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iraq’s ability to manage this influence, balancing its ambitions for energy autonomy with the need to cooperate with regional partners, will be crucial for its future and for the stability of the entire Middle Eastern region. A balanced approach and an energy diversification strategy remain essential to ensure Iraqi sovereignty, taking into account that the evolution of relations between Baghdad, Ankara and Erbil will be crucial for Iraq’s energy future.
Elisa Cicchi
Follow our updates on Geopolitical Gleanings - Spigolature geopolitiche: https://t.me/agc_NW and on our blog The Gleanings of AGCNEWS - Le Spigolature di AGCNEWS: https://spigolatureagcnews.blogspot.com/
