Baghdad finds itself navigating increasingly troubled waters on the energy and, by extension, political fronts. The United States’ decision to end the exemptions that allowed Iraq to import gas from Iran has triggered a wave of strategic assessments and concrete fears. A move that, although part of the “maximum pressure” strategy against Tehran, risks further destabilizing a country already struggling with precarious internal balances and a delicate geopolitical position. Iraq, in fact, depends heavily on Iranian gas to fuel its power plants, importing about 40% of its energy needs from Tehran.
The announcement, although not yet formalized with official communications to the Iraqi government, has set diplomacy and emergency planning in motion. Government spokesman Bassem al Awadi tried to tone things down, reiterating the mutual respect between Baghdad and Washington and Iraq’s goal of achieving energy self-sufficiency by 2028. “There is no pressure or threat on us and Iraq will not accept this type of relationship with any country,” al Awadi said, underlining Baghdad’s willingness to maintain an open dialogue with all international partners. However, reassuring words are not enough to dispel fears of an impending energy crisis, especially in light of parliamentary statistics that highlight strong discrepancies between electricity revenues (3.5 trillion dinars) and what the state actually collects (only 400 billion dinars). This inefficiency in the collection system further exacerbates the country’s vulnerability.
Behind the US decision lies a critical and uncompromising vision. Republican Representative Joe Wilson called the Iranian energy exemption a “complete disaster” that must end completely and permanently. Washington has pointed to Iraq’s dependence on Iranian gas, a dependence that is exacerbated in the summer months, when Tehran is often forced to cut off supplies due to its own shortages. The American website Real Clear Energy has pointed out that Iraq is now closer to achieving energy independence and that the United States must help Iraq in the summer, as Iran repeatedly cuts off energy supplies to Iraq due to shortages. A paradoxical situation that, according to the United States, justifies a strong intervention to push Iraq towards energy independence.
But is Iraq really ready to cut ties with Tehran? The Parliamentary Committee on Oil and Gas has expressed strong doubts, warning that there are currently no viable alternatives to Iranian gas and that the country risks a generalized crisis in electricity supplies. The loss of Iranian gas imports could cause a loss of more than 8,000 megawatts to the power grid, according to the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity. Faced with this alarming prospect, Baghdad is exploring several options. On the table are Qatar and Oman, as potential alternative gas suppliers, and the import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) through floating platforms. The Ministry of Oil plans to import about 600 million cubic feet of LNG through floating platforms in Iraqi ports, providing about 4,000 megawatts of electricity.
In parallel, the Iraqi government aims to strengthen electricity links with the Gulf countries, Jordan and Turkey, and accelerate projects to increase domestic gas production. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani chaired a meeting to discuss the electricity supply plan for next summer and follow up on the implementation of strategic oil projects, including the extension of a new gas pipeline to the Bismayah power plant and the acceleration of solar energy projects. The meeting decided to extend a new gas pipeline to transport gas from the al Mahmoudiyah district to the city of Bismayah, with a length of 40 km, to supply gas, so that the Bismayah station can operate during the summer at full capacity. A race against time, which will have to deal with internal resistance and external pressure.
The US decision has considerable political weight. According to the newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, this move shows that Washington does not distinguish between Iraq and Iran and that it is using Iraq as a tool of strategic pressure against Tehran. Kuwaiti daily al-Siyasa reported that Iran has established a new axis in Iraq with the aim of dealing with the new situation in Syria, adding another layer of complexity to the situation. The Iranian Foreign Minister said that Tehran is committed to working with Iraq to remove the effects of the US decision to cut off gas imports from Iran.
The stakes are high. For Iraq, the end of the exemption on Iranian gas represents a crucial challenge to its energy and political stability. The question remains, therefore, whether Baghdad will be able to diversify its sources of supply and therefore overcome internal resistance and manage external pressure. The answer to this question will determine the country’s energy future and its role in the regional geopolitical chessboard. 2028, the year in which Iraq aims to become self-sufficient in energy, today seems an ambitious goal, perhaps too ambitious. Iraq’s ability to navigate these waters will depend on its ability to balance the interests of regional and global powers, and on its determination to reform its energy sector.
Elisa Cicchi
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