The high-level conference “AFRICA 2026: PERSPECTIVE FROM THE HORN OF AFRICA. Preventing malign actions. Vital supply lines” was held on July 09 at the NH Roma Centro, organized by the NATO Defence College Foundation in collaboration with other bodies and institutions. The workshop focused on preventive diplomacy, countering malign actions, and securing vital supply lines in the Horn of Africa. Prominent figures and experts in the area on specific issues related to the conference topic took turns in two sessions: the first, “Global supply lines: the strategic case of Horn of Africa” including El Hadji Ibrahima Diene, Head of the AUSSOM, followed by an interactive dialogue “Pre-emptive diplomacy and hybrid participation action: case study Ethiopia”; the second panel, “African Resilience: regional foresight and crisis prevention”, chaired by Patrick Smith, Editor in-Chief, Africa Confidential & The Africa Report. Most recurrent words used among panelists were: partnership, coordination, integration.
The Horn of Africa has emerged as one of the most strategically important regions of the contemporary international system. It occupies an increasingly central position in global security, maritime trade, energy resilience, and international cooperation. In fact, it sits astride one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors, through which approximately 15% of global trade and significant share of global energy flows transit. Moreover, as geopolitical competition intensifies and hybrid threats continue to challenge critical supply routes across the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, understanding the region has become essential for policymakers, researchers, military professionals, and anyone interested in international security. The region is relevant for the security of supply lines vital for rebuilding a credible deterrence for NATO Allies.
The conference was introduced by Alessandro Minuto-Rizzo, President of the NATO Defence College Foundation. He stated that the maritime aspect is something not always think of it but truly affects international community in general. He underlined also the important relation for Italy that is the Horn of Africa and now is more relevant than ever. Majorie Apruzzese, LTC Air Force and Senior Research Advisor at the NATO Defense College, stressed that the Horn of Africa is a strategic topic, a crossroad between north and south Africa and Indo-Pacific; it impacts supply line. She added that tension fuel instability and insecurity. Moreover, hybrid threat is growing in the region by state and not state actors. Apruzzese put in evidence the NATO presence in the region -where we have to preserve stability- in fact it is engaged there since 2005 following African Union request. Opening remarks were did by Sem Fabrizi, Ambassador of Italy to Ethiopia, who reiterate the key security area that is the Horn of Africa where to focus our attention. He spoke about various topic that effect the increasing interest for NATO, such as the liaison office in Ethiopia since 2014. The Ambassador highlighted Italy historical footprint in the area and key security priorities (maritime security) in the Horn. Finally, he supports African solution for Africa.
During the session I “Global Supply lines: the strategic case of the Horn of Africa”, El Hadji Ibrahima Diene, Head of the AUSSOM -African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia-, before entering into details about his role he told that Horn of Africa is very strategic, is about global peace, global security. He agreed with Fabrizi by saying that African security issues need African solution. He said that we face piracy, maritime crimes, extreme environmental drought/crisis, humanitarian issues. Speaking about the case study El Hadji affirmed that Somalia is key state and since 2007 African Union is in the country and it has been possible to see evolution also in capacity. AUSSOM is not only a military mission: – defeat al-Shabaab; – stabilization; – protection of civilians; – create safe environment. Resilience needs to be built in the society.
El Hadji told the audience to invest in rapid responses; prevention is cheaper, more effective; strengthening regional institutions; invest in long term even though vulnerability because finally it is really useful build capacity to prevent instead of responding. Giuseppe Mistretta, Former Director for Sub-Saharan Africa at the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, spoke about three tensions in the region from his point of view: 1. possible resurge war in Tigray, very concerns; 2. strong request of Ethiopia to have sea access because of landlock country different form Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, asking only on national right. Mistretta think it doesn’t seem possible now but anyhow these could provoke new fibrillation in the region; 3. building the dam -Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam- since the beginning provoke hostility from Egypt. Need to do maximum to prevent this tension and institutions have to be involved. Speaking freely about Mattei Plan, he said that it should be more political because is just economical now.
Fabio Massimo Ballerini, who works at The Mattei Plan for Africa Task Force, Presidency of the Council of Ministers in Rome, replied and showed his partially disagreement in the sense that economic is fundamental, the base, the Mattei Plan is a global gateway, adding that they are developing a strategy of it. From EU prospective, Luca Miehe, Chief de Cabinet at the EU Special Representative for the Horn of Africa, highlighted that Horn of Africa is EU neighbour. There are lots of threats and difference responses, such as the new responding threats of the Houthis. There is the lowest level of integration between Horn Africa countries, regional security architecture needs to expand collectively, what we want is necessary to achieve together, he affirmed at the end. The last speaker was Alberto Minusso, Senior Analyst at NATO Strategic Direction South Hub in Naples. He spoke about mediterranean straits and spillover of Iran crisis and Hormuz closure. For him piracy is also a land issue, but this statement could be controversial. Security agreements are interesting from a NATO point of view, how to cope maritime danger or interdiction.
In the following discussion “Pre-emptive diplomacy and hybrid participation action: case study Ethiopia” Niagalé Bagayoko, who works at African Security Sector Network, presented a dashboard about the country -Ethiopia AI Decision-Support Dashboard-, realized and based not only on AI but also on human intelligence, where it is possible to find, divided in different categories, hundreds of data and information about so diverse aspects of the nation. She also believes that exist a strong link between pre-emptive diplomacy and rapid reaction after crisis exploded. Then the floor was up to Nicola Minasi, Head of the Crisis Unit at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Rome, who pointed about that is fundamental to try to understand in advance possible crisis. Nowadays he added is really important also to understand how to use open sources and AI. Another significant aspect is the balance between the need to know and what to know.
The session II “African resilience: regional foresight and crisis prevention” was maybe more on the job based and less theoretical. Jalale Getachew Birru, Senior Analyst for ACLED exposed what is and how they work in the organization. Data could be considered and used as an early warning asset. She presented a case study: Horn of Africa Conflict Trajectories, but also to be fair explained what ACLED data cannot tell policy makers. An example: if armed group stay in a territory and no violence, data for that area might show zero violent events. She was proud to say data UN use ACLED data but also EU and German government. Jesutimilehin O. Akamo, Researcher and Policy Analyst unit Coordinator at Institute for Peace and Security Studies gave a framework of the African peace and security architecture: early warning data, early warning analysis/report, early action. The reality is different he underlined because prevention is left behind. In addiction he stated that early you respond, the less political involvement you have/is needed.
Bitania Tadesse, Policy Specialist at International Peace Institute highlighted the cross-border movements: security issue and threats are interconnected, but response remain fragmentated. Bilateral engagement continues on counterterrorism, these was about USA and Somalia and the considering idea of blocking founding for the AU Mission there. The last to intervene, Alan Boswell, Project Director at the International Crisis Group, got back to the concept of fragmentation that is still ongoing and continues, an example is the Somaliland. About the US role he stated that is declining in the region; many actors coming in, showing the unique contested scenario. In this case an example to mention the fluid dynamic in the Horn of Africa is the Saudia Arabia – EAU interaction: before allied, now not so much in the region. So, he concluded to be worried not only for internal questions.
Paolo Romano
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